Environmental risk: Management strategies in the developing world

This paper describes a heuristic model which helps to relate a developing nation's environmental risk to the level of sophistication appropriate in adjusting management strategy to dealing with environmental hazards. The model takes into account three factors: the degree of risk, the stage of economic growth, and the sophistication of adjustment. The interrelationship of these factors is examined, and the role of international cooperation in establishing strategies is outlined.     

泥石流灾情综合评估模式

泥石流灾情综合评估模式是在灾情绝对评估的基础上建立的。首先，建立了泥石流灾情评估的步骤框图；然后依据已有的泥石流灾情评估指标体系对各项指标进行量化分析处理，将得了各灾情评估指标公值分布及其量纲换算法，确定了反映直接损失的灾情绝对评估指标和相对评估指标（直接经济损失占灾区国民收入的比例），并对绝对和相对评估结果的等级进行了划分；最后，建立了绝对评估和相对评估结果对比的灾情综合评估模式。经过实例应用验证，评估结果能较好地反映灾情。     

城市可降解生活垃圾的生物综合处理模式初探

针对现有城市生活垃圾处理方式的不足。结合垃圾生物处理特点。设计了集混合菌群降解、生物过滤除臭、污水回用及植被绿化于一体的立体处理体系。结果表明．该系统在城市生活垃圾的“三化”处理中具有显的潜势：既使生活垃圾在食物链外形成安全的闭路循环，防止有害物质向人居环境入渗；同时。处理设施的立体化、终产物的生物转化以及即刻的市场效应，有效地增强了系统的消纳能力。缓解了传统处理方式对城市空间的压力。该系统对我国中小城市生活垃圾的综合利用具有积极的参考价值。     

军机易损性评估体系安全度值的研究

军机易损性评估至为关键的因素之一是可靠的确定评估指标的安全度值。基于模糊统计基础上的集值统计 ,能有效地确定具有随机、模糊性质的军机易损性评估指标的安全度值 ;在确定过程中 ,可以给出易损性评估指标安全度值的可靠性程度和各评估专家的偏离度。实例表明 ,该法弥补了目前军机易损性评估中由经典统计法确定安全度值的不足 ,提高了军机易损性评估的准确度和可靠度。     

基于单元特性的通风系统可靠性分配方法研究

通风系统可靠性分配是优化矿井通风系统可靠性设计、保障安全生产和日常管理的一项重要指标。在系统可靠性设计过程中 ,如何根据具有一定冗余度的通风系统进行可靠性指标的分配或再分配 ,是现场通风安全技术管理人员面临的一个重要课题。笔者以可靠性工程理论为指导 ,针对矿井通风系统时变、可修的特点 ,分别从基于单元相对易损度、基于单元重要复杂度以及基于单元故障频率角度对矿井通风系统可靠性进行了再分配方法研究 ,并以矿用主通风机系统为实例 ,进行了应用分析和验证。实践证明 ,采用上述分配方法的最终分配结果均接近期望的目标值 ,且满足不低于目标值的要求。该分配方法的研究 ,可为矿井通风系统可靠性优化设计提供一条新的研究思路。     

An improved methodology for assessing risk in aircraft operations at airports, applied to runway overruns

The paper addresses the need for models to assess risk at any particular airport, based on risk management principles used by the present risk management process, that use all available data on previous accidents. The case of runway overruns is taken as an example application, because new regulations require the provision of much longer Runway End Safety Areas than had previously been the norm. The paper presents models for overruns arising from both landings and aborted takeoffs. In each case models of overrun risk, of wreckage location and of the consequences are detailed. An example application of the models is then given in a hypothetical risk assessment.The models, though adding value to existing methods of assessing risk, are not as good as they could be, due to the lack of data on normal operations. It was therefore possible only to relate the rate of overruns to the rate of occurrence of the possible driving factors for a few factors where such comparable data on normal operations existed. It is recommended that effort be put into the collection of data to allow a more comprehensive analysis.     

Degradation and mineralization of cellulose acetate in simulated thermophilic compost environments

Residual cellulose acetate (CA) films with initial degree of substitution (DS) values of 1.7 and 2.5 (CA DS-1.7 and DS-2.5) were recovered from a simulated thermophilic compost exposure and characterized by gel permeation chromatography (GPC), proton nuclear magnetic resonance (¹H NMR), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to determine changes in polymer molecular weight and DS and to study microbial colonization and surface morphology, respectively. During the aerobic degradation of CA DS-1.7 and CA DS-2.5 films exposed for 7 and 18 days, respectively, the number-average molecular weight (M _n) of residual polymer decreased by 30.4% on day 5 and 20.3% on day 16, respectively. Furthermore, a decrease in the degree of substitution from 1.69 to 1.27 (4-day exposure) and from 2.51 to 2.18 (12-day exposure) was observed for the respective CA samples. In contrast, CA films (DS-1.7 and DS-2.5) which were exposed to abiotic control vessels for identical time periods showed no significant changes inM _n and DS. SEM photographs of CA (DS-1.7 and DS-2.5) film surfaces after compost exposures revealed severe erosion and corresponding microbial colonization. Similar exposure times for CA films in abiotic control vessels resulted in only minor changes in surface characteristics by SEM observations. The conversion of CA DS-1.7 and DS-2.5 to CO₂ was monitored by respirometry. In these studies, powdered CA was placed in a predigested compost matrix which was maintained at 53°C and 60% moisture content throughout the incubation period. A lag phase of 10- and 25-day duration for CA DS-1.7 and DS-2.5, respectively, was observed, after which the rate of degradation increased rapidly. Mineralization of exposed CA DS-1.7 and DS-2.5 powders reported as the percentage theoretical CO₂ recovered reached 72.4 and 77.6% in 24 and 60 days, respectively. The results of this study demonstrated that microbial degradation of CA films exposed to aerobic thermophilic laboratory-scale compost reactors not only results in film weight loss but also causes severe film pitting and a corresponding decrease in chainM _n and degree of substitution for the residual material. Furthermore, conversions to greater than 70% of the theoretical recovered CO₂ for CA (DS 1.7 and 2.5) substrates indicate high degrees of CA mineralization.Guest Editor: Dr. Graham Swift, Rohm & Haas.     

模糊数学在大气环境质量评价中的应用

本文应用模糊数学方法对近年宜宾市城区大气环境质量进行综合评价,并与常用的其它几个模式进行可比分析,其更能描述大气污染程度的特点。因此,模糊综合评判法对大气环境质量评价是较为理想的一种评价方法,它具有较强的实用性。     

泥石流堆积扇危险度分区评价的数值模拟研究

本文应用泥石流非恒定流数学模型对泥石流平面运动进行了数值模拟，提出了泥石流堆积扇危险度评价的理论和方法。实例验证表明该法计算简便，稳健可靠，是评价泥石流堆积扇危险度的一种新途径。     

酒精生产中的危险度评估方法

酒精工业在国民经济建设中的重要作用已日益显示。然而在其生产过程中却有不少火灾事故的隐患，许多企业已采取相应的措施进行预防。本文提出采用英国帝国化学公司蒙德部门的火灾爆炸毒性指数法，对酒精生产过程中的主要部分进行分析评价，并对热点进一步采用ＦＴＡ法进行分析，以期严格控制火灾事故的发生。