火灾预测的模糊马尔柯夫模型

火灾发生并不是一个严格马尔柯夫随机过程，而是一个“近似具有马尔柯夫性”的模糊马尔柯夫过程。本文在对我国55年火灾统计资料“相对化”处理的基础上，根据模糊马尔柯夫理论和方法，建立我国火灾相对变动模糊马尔可夫预测模型。根据隶属度最大原则，确定所属状态，进行火灾预测。2005年我国火灾预测值与实际值的相对误差为0．0148，表明模型具有相当高的预测精度。对我国2006年进行预测，得到火灾相对变动状态等级为微降，我国2006年的火灾发生率与2005年相比降低了0～0．1，火灾频数约为212347～235941起，预测结果可为有关部门的决策提供一定的依据。     

苏南地区新近沉积土的动剪切模量比与阻尼比--试验研究

苏南地区的场地土主要为漫滩相、湖沼相或冲湖相新近沉积软弱土，结构松散，沉积零乱，成分复杂，饱水可液化粉细砂层及粉土层较为发育，在地震或动力荷载的作用下有可能发生软土震陷或砂土液化。通过对苏南地区淤泥质粉质粘土、粘土、粉质粘土、粉质粘土与粉细砂互层土、粉土、粉砂、细砂和中粗砂等8类新近沉积土155个原状土样历时4年的试验研究，给出了该地区上述8类新近沉积土的动剪切模量比G／Gmax和阻尼比D随剪应变幅值γ变化的平均拟合曲线及其参数的推荐值。为便于一般工程应用，给出了这8类新近沉积土的G/Gmax-γ，和D—γ关系曲线的推荐值及其标准差。     

Livestock excreta management through vermicomposting using an epigeic earthworm Eisenia foetida

In India, millions of tones of livestock excreta are produced. Our study explores the potential of an epigeic earthworm Eisenia foetida to compost different livestock excreta (cow, buffalo, horse, donkey, sheep, goat and camel) into value added product (vermicompost) at the laboratory scale. Vermicomposting resulted in lowering of pH, electrical conductivity, potassium and C:N ratio and increase in nitrogen and phosphorus contents. Total K was lower in the final cast than in the initial feed. C:N ratios of the vermicomposts ranged from 16.2 ± 2.17 to 75.4 ± 6.84. Microbial activity measured as dehydrogenase activity in buffalo, donkey and camel wastes increased with time up to day 90. But in sheep and goat wastes, maximum dehydrogenase activity was recorded on day 60 and decreased thereafter. The cocoons and hatchlings production by Eisenia foetida in different excreta were also investigated. The greatest number and biomass of hatchlings was recorded in horse excreta followed by cow, goat and sheep excreta. Thus, cow, horse, sheep and goat excreta show potential as good substrates in vermicomposting using Eisenia foetida, although further research is required to explore the feasibility of use of buffalo, donkey and camel excreta in combination with cow/sheep/goat excreta.     

INCREASING WATER SUPPLY BY MIXING OF FRESH AND SALINE GROUND WATERS1

ABSTRACT: The quality of ground water in any aquifer takes its final form due to natural mixture of waters, which may originate from different sources. Water quality varies from one aquifer to another and even within the same aquifer itself. Different ground water quality is obtained from wells and is mixed in a common reservoir prior to any consumption. This artificial mixing enables an increase in available ground water of a desired quality for agricultural or residential purposes. The question remains as to what proportions of water from different wells should be mixed together to achieve a desired water quality for this artificial mixture. Two sets of laboratory experiments were carried out, namely, the addition of saline water to a fixed volume of fresh water. After each addition, the mixture volume and the electric conductivity value of the artificially mixed water were recorded. The experiments were carried out under the same laboratory temperature of 20°C. A standard curve was developed first experimentally and then confirmed theoretically. This curve is useful in determining either the volume or discharge ratio from two wells to achieve a predetermined electrical conductivity value of the artificial mixture. The application of the curve is given for two wells within the Quaternary deposits in the western part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.     

压入式局部通风工作面风流分布数值模拟研究

笔者应用三维k -ε紊流模型描述压入式局部通风工作面风流的流动过程 ,并采用控制容积法导出了描述流体流动方程的离散化方程式 ;用计算流体力学的方法求得了三维k -ε紊流模型的数值解。采用SIMPLE(压力耦合方程式的半阴解法 )算法解算流场 ;TDMA(三对角线算法 )和Gauss Seidel法结合通过线顺法求解离散方程。利用弱松弛法防止非线性方程组迭代求解过程中的发散现象 ,获得了掘进工作面空间的速度分布 ;并将模拟解算结果与在具有实际尺寸的拱形巷道模型中测得的实验结果进行了对比。数值计算结果与模型实验测定结果非常一致 ,验证了笔者的数学模型和数值模拟方法的正确性。     

基于交通量的平面信号控制交叉口交通冲突模拟研究

针对我国交通冲突技术发展尚处于起步阶段 ,交通冲突数据统计尚不充分的现状 ,笔者研究了交通量和交通事故、交通冲突的密切关系 ,尝试建立以交通量为基础的交通冲突数学模型 ,力求更加准确地对平面交叉口进行安全评价 ,克服传统的基于事故统计的安全评价方法的不足。     

Evaluation of Mass-Transfer Coefficient of Free Fall – Cascade-Aerator

The mass-transfer coefficient of a free-fall cascade-aeratorunit of 15 million litres per day was evaluated for its efficiency in the removal of a class of volatile organics, the trihalomethanes(THMs). These compounds are carcinogenic and occur as a resultof chlorination of natural waters. Due to the volatile nature ofthe THMs, the efficiency of aeration as a potential techniquefor their removal has been studied. The principle behindaeration is gas-transfer, according to which the gas-liquidinterface is hypothesized to consist of a gas and liquid filmthrough which gas is transferred by molecular diffusion untilequilibrium is attained. The overall mass transfer coefficient(K _L) of the aerator considering oxygen as the reference compound, was found to be29.3 hr^-1 for THMs.     

Effect of the water–oil ratio on brine/surfactant/alcohol/oil systems optimized for soil remediation

The optimum middle-phase microemulsion used for remediation of oily contaminated soils is often obtained by mixing a certain amount of a surfactant/alcohol mixture with oil and adjusting the salinity concentrations at a constant water–oil ratio. Upon introduction to the subsurface, however, the system may not be in the optimum state throughout the remediation process owing to the change in the water–oil ratio. This research has attempted to investigate the effect of the water–oil ratio on the phase behavior of systems containing brine, anionic surfactant, alcohols, and different oils. By systematically changing the water–oil ratio, while keeping the others variables constant, the systems exhibited different phase behavior. The results revealed that the effect of the water–oil ratio on system behavior was significant, and analogous to that of salinity. Increasing the water–oil ratio led the system change from winsor I → winsor III → winsor II. The greater the water–oil ratio the lower the salinity required to produce the middle-phase microemulsion, but the narrower the salinity range of the three-phase region. An empirical correlation has been developed in order to predict the changes in phase behavior with the changes in water–oil ratio. This provides a useful tool for designing optimum formulations suitable for soil remediation. Received: October 5, 1999 / Accepted: March 27, 2000     

全氟二甲基环丁烷示踪剂吸附采样

借助气相色谱基本原理,测定了全氟二甲基环丁烷大气示踪剂通过Carboxen-569碳分子筛吸附管的分配系数,考察了温度和采样速度对穿透体积和安全采样体积的影响,确定了示踪剂吸附采样的基本参数吸附剂用量为150mg,吸附采样温度≤40℃,采样速度为200mL/min,样品解吸温度为200℃.     

Cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wrens show no facultative manipulation of offspring sex ratio despite plausible benefits

We report a long-term study of offspring sex ratios in the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren Malurus cyaneus. Detailed study of this species had revealed a suite of potentially strong selection pressures on the sex ratio. First, females gain substantial fitness benefits from the presence of helpers; so females without male helpers would benefit from any strategy that increased the probability of recruiting help, such as overproduction of sons (local resource enhancement hypothesis), but large numbers of helper males compete among themselves, favouring the production of daughters (local resource competition). Second, daughters fledged early in the season have far greater chances of recruitment to the breeding population than late-fledged daughters, so mothers would benefit from production of daughters early in the breeding season (early bird hypothesis). Third, extra-group mate choice imposes strong sexual selection on males, suggesting that females mating with attractive sires could benefit from investing in sons (sexual selection hypothesis). However, the predictions from these and other sex ratio hypotheses were rejected. The only convincing evidence for manipulation of the sex ratio was a slight bias towards sons (11 sons to 10 daughters) that occurred regardless of context. This result does not support current theory.