When information becomes action: drivers of individuals' trust in broadcast versus peer‐to‐peer information in disaster response

Information and communications technology (ICT), primarily mobile telephones and social media, is increasingly important in crisis and disaster response in developing countries. This fact raises an important question: in an information environment that includes traditional media such as radio and television, who are the people that trust information from ICT enough to act on it during a disaster? Drawing on a case study of and original survey data from the island nation of the Independent State of Samoa, this paper yields insights into who uses new technologies, particularly mobile telephones, to make decisions at the local level during crises such as natural disasters, as well as the socio‐political factors that motivate their behaviour. The results add to the growing pool of knowledge on utilisation of ICT and new technologies in developing countries for disaster response, and provide practical information on the social and political factors that lead people to trust different information sources and media.     

Looking forward: Disasters at 40

This paper reflects on contemporary studies of and responses to disasters, highlighting the importance of historical, spatial, and intersectional modes of analysis, and draws on the author's ongoing research on Southern‐led and local community responses to displacement in the Middle East. Acknowledging the plurality of ‘international communities of response’, it begins by critiquing the depiction of selected responses to disasters as ‘positive’ ‘paradigm shifts’, including in reference to the ‘localisation of aid, and the United Nations’ Regional Refugee and Resilience Plan for Syria. Next it turns to three key themes that are central to disasters studies: migration; forced displacement; and Southern‐led responses to disasters. Among other things, the paper argues that exploring the principles and modalities of South–South cooperation, rather than promoting the incorporation of Southern actors into the ‘international humanitarian system’ via the localisation agenda, presents a critical opportunity for studies of and responses to disasters.     

白洋淀底栖藻类与多环芳烃生态风险相关性研究——基于综合生物反应指数法

湖泊富营养化与有机污染物的交互作用是当前国内外研究热点,为了建立富营养化湖泊中多环芳烃(PAHs)生态效应与底栖藻类群落之间的相关关系。本研究以白洋淀为研究区,选取8个国控样点作为采样点,依据人为干扰程度不同将8个采样点划分为3种生境:生境1(S1和S2)主要遭受上游府河废水排放影响;生境2(S3、S6和S8)主要遭受水产养殖和生活污水的影响;生境3(S4、S5和S7)遭受人为干扰较小。分别在2009年4月、8月和11月收集了底栖藻类样品,并测定了白洋淀中15种PAHs。运用RQ_((NC))和RQ_((MPC))等改进风险熵值(RQ)方法计算PAHs生态风险。研究结果表明:(1)底栖藻类群落指标AD、Chl a、Chl b/a、CHL、CYA、APA、GLU、LEU、PSC和AFDW的值在11月最高,其次是8月和4月;就空间分布而言,这些指标值在生境1中最高,其次是生境2和生境3;而Chl c/a和BAC值在8月最高,其次是11月和4月,从空间分布特征而言,这些指标值在生境3最高;(2)相关分析结果表明,Chl a、Chl b/a、CHL、CYA、APA、GLU、LEU、PSC和AFDW的指标与PAHs污染物浓度呈显著正相关,而Chl c/a和BAC指标与污染物PAHs浓度呈显著负相关;(3)就空间分异特征而言,生境1中的ΣPAHs浓度最高,就季节变化而言,PAHs的浓度从4月到8月逐渐增加,而从8月到11月逐渐下降。各类PAHs表现出与ΣPAHs相同的时空变化特征;(4)IBR与RQ_(ΣPAHs(NCs))呈正相关关系(r=0.827,P0.01);除RQAcy(NCs)外,其他种类PAHs生态风险均与IBR呈相正相关关系(r=0.699~0.899),其中RQ_(BaP(NCs))与IBR显著正相关(r=0.899,P0.01)。此外,除沉积物TP外,IBR与TSI、水中TN、水中TP和沉积物TN也呈显著正相关(r=0.722~0.862)。因此,在富营养化湖泊中应考虑运用底栖藻类IBR生态监测PAHs污染水平。     

Coordination in theory,coordination in practice: the case of the Clusters

The atomised nature of the humanitarian system has led to frequent and repeated attempts to coordinate humanitarian activity. Since 2005, some of the best resourced, and arguably most successful, coordination mechanisms have been the humanitarian Clusters, groups of UN (United Nations) and non‐UN actors that engage in sectoral coordination of humanitarian response (such as the provision of healthcare and water) at the global and country level. Nevertheless, it is not clear exactly what ‘coordination’ means in the context of a Cluster. Formal guidance suggests that they should be aiming to create a single, joint strategy to guide the activities of members. Actual experience of the Clusters, however, indicates that looser forms of coordination are more effective. This finding resonates with organisational theory, and with the experience of emergency management professionals beyond the international humanitarian sector. To capitalise fully on the success of the Clusters, policymakers may need to rethink their attitudes to, and expectations of, coordination.     

基于物元可拓模型的兰州市主城区公园表土重金属污染评价

在分析兰州市主城区公园表土重金属含量水平的基础上,采用UNMIX模型对重金属进行来源解析,同时引入Hakanson毒性响应系数修正传统权重,运用物元可拓模型对重金属污染水平进行评价,并将评价结果与内梅罗综合污染指数（P_N）和潜在生态风险指数（RI）进行对比.结果表明：①研究区公园表土重金属含量均值都高于兰州市土壤背景值,其中Ni、Cu和Co的点位含量超标比例各为100%,Cr、V、Pb和As分别为58.82%、14.71%、20.59%和2.94%.②源解析显示研究区公园表土重金属存在3大污染源,源1为建筑业污染源,对Co的贡献率为56%;源2为交通污染源,对Cu和Pb的贡献率各为44%和52%;源3为自然源,对V、Cr、Ni和As的贡献率各为62%、60%、56%和56%,自然源占主导作用.③各重金属权重修正效果显著,Cr和V的降幅各为44%左右,而Ni、Cu、Pb、As和Co的修正权重比常规权重有所增加,增幅依次为Co < Pb < Cu < Ni < As,As的权重变化最为明显,增加约188%左右.④物元评价结果显示,研究区46%的公园表土为Ⅴ级状态（重度污染）,41%为Ⅳ级状态（中度污染）,3%为Ⅲ级状态（轻度污染）,Co为主要污染因子;物元可拓模型评价结果与P_N及RI结果大致相同,说明物元可拓模型可用于土壤重金属污染评价,评价结果准确客观.     

京杭大运河无锡段水质和土地利用的响应关系

以京杭大运河无锡段2003年7月和12月两景SPOT-5正射影像为数据源,结合断面水质数据,利用基于最小二乘法的多元回归方法,建立了枯水期和丰水期水质参数与土地利用的响应模型。结果表明:以监测断面为中心的缓冲区距离的空间变化与水质监测指标之间有很明显的响应关系,建立的模型显示,丰水期DO、CODMn、BOD5、TN和TP的最大响应宽度分别为100、100、300、200和100 m,枯水期的最大响应宽度则为500、200、300、400和200 m。运河的水质污染主要受离河岸较近的土地利用结构的影响,耕地上产生的农业污水、商业和工业中的废水以及大面积裸地上居民生活垃圾和建筑垃圾产生的污水是导致京杭大运河无锡段水质恶化的重要原因。     

第三方挖掘作用下PE燃气管道失效行为研究

针对挖掘破坏导致的城镇燃气管道失效,开展了挖掘作用下管道力学失效机理分析。考虑管土接触作用,建立了城镇燃气PE管道在挖掘齿作用下的三维力学响应分析模型,分析了典型工况下管道的失效过程,讨论了基于应力准则与基于应变准则等2种失效准则的适用性,并开展了影响因素分析。结果表明:机械齿作用下管道主要失效位置为机械齿与管道接触位置两端;采用基于应变的失效准则可以更好地利用PE管材的塑性性能;机械齿的作用位置对管道力学响应影响较小;管径和壁厚的增大能减小管道内的应力,同时能够减小管道的截面椭圆度;内压的改变对管道的力学响应几乎没有影响。以上结果可为城镇燃气管道的力学失效分析与安全评价提供一定的参考。     

地下综合管廊天然气管道泄漏扩散模拟研究

为了研究管道异常泄漏时天然气的扩散情况,采用Fluent软件模拟研究不同压力条件下气体在管舱内的浓度分布特性,核算保护半径为7.5 m时的报警探测器在灾变时的响应时间,以达到指导报警探测器设计的目的。结果表明:当泄漏压力为103.3 kPa,200.0 kPa时,对应的报警响应时间分别为2.15 s,0.45 s,报警响应时间随着泄漏压力的增大而减小,在常规中压输出压力下,响应时间最大值为2.15 s;同一泄漏压力下,管舱内气体扩散距离与泄漏持续时间成正相关;报警探测器的响应浓度以爆炸下限的20%为推荐值。     

芬顿试剂与DDBAC联合调理污泥的工艺优化

研究了不同pH值下芬顿试剂(H2O2/Fe2+)与表面活性剂(DDBAC)联合调理对污泥脱水性能的影响,以污泥滤饼含水率(WC)和毛细吸水时间(CST)作为评价指标进行单因素试验,得出pH值以及药剂投加量最佳范围.然后通过以响应曲面优化法(RSM)为依据的Box-Behnken试验,建立了WC和CST减少率二次多项式预测模型,进而得到各影响因素的最优值.结果表明,联合调理过程中pH=3.91,H2O2、Fe2+和DDBAC的投加量分别为47.60, 38.60, 58.20mg/g时, WC降至60.26%, CST减少率升至89.89%, 污泥脱水性能明显改善.同时,在最优条件下进行了验证试验,试验结果与模型预测值基本吻合,表明基于响应曲面法所得的最佳工艺参数准确可靠,对相关污泥处理及条件优化具有一定的指导意义.     

响应曲面法在反硝化生物滤池运行参数优化中的应用

为预测反硝化生物滤池深度处理城镇污水处理厂二沉池出水的脱氮效果,优化工艺运行参数,以黏土陶粒反硝化生物滤池作为反应器,以人工合成污水模拟污水处理厂二沉池出水,采用中心组合试验设计,利用响应曲面法研究反应器NO₃--N去除率与HRT(水力停留时间)、进水中ρ(COD_Cr)和ρ(NO₃--N)之间的关系. 统计结果显示,NO₃--N去除模型极显著(P<0.000 1),并且模型预测值与试验值能很好地吻合. 方差分析结果表明,HRT及其与进水中ρ(NO₃--N)和ρ(COD_Cr)的交互作用对反硝化滤池NO₃--N的去除率影响不显著(P>0.05),而进水中ρ(NO₃--N)和ρ(COD_Cr)及其交互作用对反硝化滤池NO₃--N的去除具有显著影响(P＜0.05). 3个因素对NO₃--N去除率影响强弱的顺序为进水ρ(COD_Cr)>进水ρ(NO₃--N)>HRT. 在HRT为2.50 h的条件下,当进水中ρ(NO₃--N)＜11.00 mg/L及ρ(COD_Cr)＞43.00 mg/L时,反硝化滤池NO₃--N的去除率可以达到71.0%以上.