中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证分析

商业保险是社会化巨灾风险分散机制的重要组成部分,要在中国现阶段巨灾事件频发的复杂环境中构建合理的损失分摊机制,不能不考虑以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业应对巨灾损失的能力。在Cummins、Doherty和Anita的保险赔付能力度量模型框架及改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,引入1998～2008年中国财产保险业经营数据,对2009年初时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家财产保险公司及全行业巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,由于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后,在1 200亿到2 000亿元的损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付能力缺口在26.8亿到815.6亿元之间,且缺口增长速度大于损失增长速度。通过与2008年初的赔付能力实证分析结果对比发现,灾害频发的2008年客观上显著降低了中国财产保险行业应对极端损失的能力。度量结果从实证基础上昭示了政府大力扶持和参与巨灾保险体系建设的必要性和紧迫性。     

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries.     

土石坝震损机理及震害影响因素研究

汶川8.0级地震造成主震区四川省境内1997座水库的坝体、溢洪道、输水管、管理房等水利设施不同程度的损毁,不仅无法实现水利功能,而且面临洪水威胁.汶川地震中土石坝典型震害包括裂缝、滑坡、渗漏以及坝体沉陷等.在调查主震区土石坝地震损毁特点的基础上,分析了均质土坝、面板堆石坝、心墙坝等坝型主要震害产生的原因,阐述了影响土石坝震害程度的诸多因素及其作用方式,控制性因素主要有外部因素如场地类别、地震动参数,坝体内部因素如坝料特性、坝型及坝高、坝坡坡率等.     

基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价

基于前期对四川省德阳市民众地震灾害认知与响应特点与规律的问卷调查数据及分析结果,构建了以性别、年龄和受教育程度为核心评价参数的县市社会民众地震灾害响应能力的综合评价模型;然后将该评价模型应用于四川省,实现了对四川省社会民众地震灾害响应能力大小的分县市计算与评价。结果表明,四川省东部县市民众的地震灾害响应能力普遍比西部县市民众大,省会成都市周围的区、县(市)居民的地震灾害响应能力普遍较强,西部三个自治州民众的响应能力普遍较差,其中,成都市青羊区民众的响应能力最强,凉山彝族自治州金阳县民众的能力最弱,全省呈现出以成都市各区县(市)为中心向周围地区递减的总体趋势。     

Effect of dimethoate on the immune system of female mice

Abstract

The functional status of the immune system of female mice exposed to a single oral dose of dimethoate (16 mg / kg) was evaluated by assessing cell mediated and humoral immune responses, in addition to the effect of dimethoate on spleen and body weights after different time intervals. The data showed that dimethoate caused a time ‐ depended decrease in spleen weights in the absence of a change in body weights. The immunologic effect of dimethoate to female mice produced a dose‐dependent decrease in the number of the rosette forming cells (total and active erythrocyte rosette). The ability of splenocytes to proliferation in response to mitogens; phytohemagglutinin (PHA) for T cell and lipopolysaccharide (LPS) for B cell were significantly decreased at the different times. As compared to control, a significant decrease in serum total immunoglobulins (Ig) and IgM was found, while IgG was non‐significant deceased. Results of this study also revealed that dimethoate caused a significant decrease in the number of plaque forming cell (PFC / 10⁶ splenocytes) in a time dependent manner.     

Influence of ciprofloxacin on the microbial catabolic diversity in soil

In this study, the effect of ciprofloxacin (CIP) on the catabolic diversity of soil microbial communities was evaluated. Soil samples were spiked with ciprofloxacin (0, 1, 5 and 50 mg?kg^?1) and were incubated for 1, 3, 9, 22 and 40 days. Untreated controls received only water. The functional diversity of the microbial community studied was characterized using a catabolic response profile (CRP). Six substrate groups were tested: carbohydrates, amino acids, carboxylic acids, aromatic chemicals, alcohols and polymers. After 40 days, the CIP concentrations in the soil samples ranged from 25% to 58% of the initial concentrations. Soil respiratory responses to the individual substrates D-glucose, lactose, D-mannose, L-glutamic, Na-citrate, malic acid and inosine were inhibited at the high CIP concentrations (5 and 50 mg·kg^?1) in the soils and were increased at the lowest CIP concentration (1 mg·kg^?1). Soil respiration was inhibited at all of the CIP concentrations after the addition of D-galactose and glycerol. The CIP concentration and incubation time explained 45.3% of the variance of the catabolic responses. The CRP analysis clearly discriminated among the different CIP concentrations. The results suggest that CIP strongly affects the catabolic diversities of soil microbial communities and that its effect is more significant than that of incubation time.     

响应面法优化UV/H_2O_2光氧化法处理高浓度LAS废水

采用响应面法对UV/H2O2光氧化法处理高浓度LAS废水的工艺参数进行了系统研究。根据Box-Behnken Design(BBD)设计原理,以初始pH与H2O2投加量、反应时间和温度为主要影响因素,设计4因素3水平共29个实验点的实验方案,并建立了二次响应面拟合模型。方差分析表明,初始pH与H2O2投加量、反应时间和温度以及初始pH和H2O2投加量、H2O2投加量和温度之间的交互作用,对实验结果具有显著性影响。实验得到的光氧化高浓度LAS废水最佳工艺条件,pH为4.0,H2O2投加量为40 mmol/L,反应时间为90 min,温度为25℃,在此条件下,LAS的平均去除率为98.1%。     

光磁耦合废水处理工艺条件的优化研究

以Fe3O4/TiO2作为磁性光催化剂,采用光磁耦合技术处理模拟印染废水。利用统计学方法对光磁耦合废水处理的影响因素进行了探讨和分析,考察了磁场强度、磁性光催化剂投加量、pH值和光照时间对光磁耦合废水处理的影响。通过Design-Expert 7.0.0软件分析得到最佳工艺条件:磁场强度73.95 mT,磁性光催化剂投加量1.13 g/L,模拟废水pH值13,光照时间120 min。在最佳工艺条件下进行实验,脱色率为88.60%。     

餐厨垃圾和绿化废弃物混合堆肥的试用

以餐厨垃圾和绿化废弃物堆肥作为种植基质,研究了其不同堆肥比例对黑麦草(Lolium perenne L.)生长的影响。结果表明,将不同基质组分别施用后,黑麦草各项生长指标(植株高度、盖度、地上和地下生物量(干重))均良好,其中2#基质(80%土壤+20%堆肥)施用效果优于1#(90%土壤+10%堆肥)和3#(70%土壤+30%堆肥)基质。对比不同堆肥对黑麦草生长的影响发现,(80%+20%)堆肥6处理的黑麦草地上和地下生物量最大,分别约为40 g和28 g,第三茬草地上生物量(干重)与对照组相比增幅为164.3%,盖度达到了98%。本研究确定了堆肥和土壤的最佳配比以及最佳堆肥类型,不但可以解决其资源化再利用的问题,而且植物生长良好,表明该技术在城市绿化中具有一定的应用前景。     

From Global to Local: Providing Actionable Flood Forecast Information in a Cloud‐Based Computing Environment

Global and continental scale flood forecast provide coarse resolution flood forecast, but from the perspective of emergency management, flood warnings should be detailed and specific to local conditions. The desired refinement can be provided by the use of downscaling global scale models and through the use of distributed hydrologic models to produce a high‐resolution flood forecast. Three major challenges associated with transforming global flood forecasting to a local scale are addressed in this work. The first is using open‐source software tools to provide access to multiple data sources and lowering the barriers for users in management agencies at local level. This can be done through the Tethys Platform that enables web water resources modeling applications. The second is finding a practical solution for the computational requirements associated with running complex models and performing multiple simulations. This is done using Tethys Cluster that manages distributed and cloud computing resources as a companion to the Tethys Platform for web app development. The third challenge is discovering ways to downscale the forecasts from the global extent to the local context. Three modeling strategies have been tested to address this, including downscaling of coarse resolution global runoff models to high‐resolution stream networks and routing with Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID), the use of hierarchical Gridded Surface and Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) distributed models, and pre‐computed distributed GSSHA models.