突发性环境污染事故风险管理进展

在介绍突发性环境污染事故的概念、类型与特性的基础上,综述了近年来国内外风险管理的进展。要对突发性环境污染事故进行风险管理,需要有组织的风险管理体系和风险管理计划。风险管理计划应当包括危害的风险评价、预防和应急反应三部分内容。文中详细阐述了突发性环境污染事故的预防、应急处理与对策、善后处理与影响评价的主要内容和方法。     

Adaptive response criteria in road hazard detection among older drivers

Objectives: The majority of existing investigations on attention, aging, and driving have focused on the negative impacts of age-related declines in attention on hazard detection and driver performance. However, driving skills and behavioral compensation may accommodate for the negative effects that age-related attentional decline places on driving performance. In this study, we examined an important question that had been largely neglected in the literature linking attention, aging, and driving: can top-down factors such as behavioral compensation, specifically adaptive response criteria, accommodate the negative impacts from age-related attention declines on hazard detection during driving?

Methods: In the experiment, we used the Drive Aware Task, a task combining the driving context with well-controlled laboratory procedures measuring attention. We compared younger (n = 16, age 21–30) and older (n = 21, age 65–79) drivers on their attentional processing of hazards in driving scenes, indexed by percentage of correct responses and reaction time of hazard detection, as well as sensitivity and response criteria using signal detection analysis.

Results: Older drivers, in general, were less accurate and slower on the task than younger drivers. However, results from this experiment revealed that older, but not younger, drivers adapted their response criteria when the traffic condition changed in the driving scenes. When there was more traffic in the driving scene, older drivers became more liberal in their responses, meaning that they were more likely to report that a driving hazard was detected.

Conclusions: Older drivers adopt compensatory strategies for hazard detection during driving. Our findings showed that, in the driving context, even at an older age our attentional functions are still adaptive according to environmental conditions. This leads to considerations on potential training methods to promote adaptive strategies that may help older drivers maintain performance in road hazard detection.     

Natural radionuclide concentrations in two phosphate ores of east Algeria

Ore is considered as an important source of many elements such as the iron, phosphorus, and uranium. Concerning the natural radionuclides, their concentrations vary from an ore to other depending on the chemical composition of each site.In this work, two phosphate ores found in East of Algeria have been chosen to assess the activity concentration of natural radionuclides represented mainly by three natural radioactive series ²³⁸U, ²³⁵U and ²³²Th, and the primordial radionuclide ⁴⁰K where they were determined using ultra-low background, high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy.The measured activity concentrations of radioactive series ranged from 6.2 ± 0.4 to 733 ± 33 Bq.kg⁻¹ for the ²³²Th series, from 249 ± 16 to 547 ± 39 Bq.kg⁻¹ for the ²³⁸U series, around 24.2 ± 2.5 Bq.kg⁻¹ for the ²³⁵U series, and from 1.4 ± 0.2 to 6.7 ± 0.7 Bq.kg⁻¹ for ⁴⁰K.To assess exposure to gamma radiation in the two ores, from specific activities of ²³²Th, ⁴⁰K and ²²⁶Ra, three indexes were determined: Radium equivalent (Ra_eq), external and internal hazard indexes (H_ex and H_in), their values ranged from 831 ± 8 to 1298 ± 14 Bq.kg⁻¹ for Ra_eq, from 2.2 ± 0.4 to 3.5 ± 0.7 Bq.kg⁻¹ for H_ex, and from 4.2 ± 0.7 to 4.5 ± 0.7 Bq.kg⁻¹ for H_in.     

圆形和直墙拱形地下隧道地震反应数值模拟对比分析

考虑土与结构动力相互作用的影响,将地基土—地铁区间隧道结构体系视为平面应变问题,建立了土—地铁区间隧道非线性动力相互作用的有限元分析模型,对圆形和直墙拱形隧道的地震反应进行了数值模拟;分析了在相同的埋深和场地条件的情况下不同隧道结构形式在不同地震动作用下的应力、加速度和相对水平位移反应特性。结果表明:圆形隧道结构的应力和相对水平位移反应明显小于直墙拱形隧道。从抗震设计角度考虑,选择隧道形状时应优先采用圆形隧道。     

河流砷污染事件的应急监测响应与思考

应急监测是突发性环境污染事故处理的前提和关键。介绍丁大沙河含砷废水污染事件的应急监测工作,提出应急监测的方案和方法,应急响应监测对象和范围布设科学,方案调整及时,为迅速正确进行污染事件处理提供了科学快速的技术支持。并从建立应急监测网络,加强领导、强化监测队伍能力建设及加强污染源监控等方面,阐述了做好突发性环境污染事故应急监测工作的建议。     

基于问卷调查的四川民众地震灾害响应能力分区评价

基于前期对四川省德阳市民众地震灾害认知与响应特点与规律的问卷调查数据及分析结果,构建了以性别、年龄和受教育程度为核心评价参数的县市社会民众地震灾害响应能力的综合评价模型;然后将该评价模型应用于四川省,实现了对四川省社会民众地震灾害响应能力大小的分县市计算与评价。结果表明,四川省东部县市民众的地震灾害响应能力普遍比西部县市民众大,省会成都市周围的区、县(市)居民的地震灾害响应能力普遍较强,西部三个自治州民众的响应能力普遍较差,其中,成都市青羊区民众的响应能力最强,凉山彝族自治州金阳县民众的能力最弱,全省呈现出以成都市各区县(市)为中心向周围地区递减的总体趋势。     

中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证分析

商业保险是社会化巨灾风险分散机制的重要组成部分,要在中国现阶段巨灾事件频发的复杂环境中构建合理的损失分摊机制,不能不考虑以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业应对巨灾损失的能力。在Cummins、Doherty和Anita的保险赔付能力度量模型框架及改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,引入1998～2008年中国财产保险业经营数据,对2009年初时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家财产保险公司及全行业巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,由于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后,在1 200亿到2 000亿元的损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付能力缺口在26.8亿到815.6亿元之间,且缺口增长速度大于损失增长速度。通过与2008年初的赔付能力实证分析结果对比发现,灾害频发的2008年客观上显著降低了中国财产保险行业应对极端损失的能力。度量结果从实证基础上昭示了政府大力扶持和参与巨灾保险体系建设的必要性和紧迫性。     

环境规制和农业科技进步的关系分析——基于波特假说的研究

波特假说主要从动态的角度论证了环境规制和农业科技进步之间的正向变亿关系.而在安徽省1990 -2008年的农业生产数据的基础上,选择合适的环境规制和农业科技进步的指标变量,运用Johansen协整分析方法验证了安徽省农业生产中的环境规制和农业科技进步的关系也符合这一假说,Granger因果关系检验说明了安徽省环境规制是农业科技进步产生的原因,脉冲响应分析和方差分析则更深入地从定量的角度分析了环境规制对农业科技进步影响滞后的趋势和影响程度.由实证分析可以看出,只是从静态角度来分析,环境规制是不利于农业的科技进步的;但从长期效益来看,环境规制有利于农业的科技进步.因此,在农业生态环境恶化的形势下,严格对农业废弃物的排放限制,制定较严格的农产品生产标准和产品质量标准,提高农民的环境意识和科技意识,通过强化环境规制来促使农业生产者提高农业生产技术,提高农产品品质和产品的市场竞争力就显得尤为重要.     

'It'll never happen to me': understanding public awareness of local flood risk

Following the severe flood events of 1998 and 2000, the United Kingdom's Environment Agency prioritised the need to increase public flood risk awareness. Drawing on data collected during research undertaken for the Environment Agency, this paper contributes to understanding of one aspect of flood awareness: people's recognition that their property is in an area that is potentially at risk of flooding. Quantitative analyses indicate that class is the most influential factor in predicting flood risk awareness, followed by flood experience and length of time in residence. There are also significant area differences. Our qualitative work explores how those defined as 'at risk' account for their lack of awareness or concern about their risk status. We conclude that the problem is often not simply a lack of awareness, but rather, assessments of local risk based on experience that underestimate the impact of rare or extreme events. We underline the importance of engaging with local perspectives on risk and making local people part of 'awareness-raising' processes.     

银川市典型湖泊沉积物细菌群落结构及其对重金属的响应关系

湖泊湿地是极其重要而又特殊的生态系统,在区域水资源调蓄、环境保护和生物多样性维持等方面具有重要意义.沉积物细菌是湖泊生态系统重要的组成部分,是湖泊生物地球化学循环的主要驱动力.为探明银川市典型湖泊沉积物细菌的群落结构及其影响因素,选取银川市3个典型湖泊（阅海湖、鸣翠湖和犀牛湖）为研究对象,于2021年1月、4月、7月和10月采集表层沉积物,应用16S rDNA高通量测序技术研究沉积物细菌群落组成,并探究其与重金属之间的响应关系.结果表明,银川市3个典型湖泊沉积物重金属生态危害系数远小于40,生态危害指数远小于150,危害程度均为生态轻微危害.3个湖泊的细菌群落多样性无显著差异,但各湖泊不同季节多样性有显著变化,群落组成也存在显著差异.阅海湖、鸣翠湖和犀牛湖的优势种菌门（相对丰度排名前3）均为：变形菌门（Proteobacteria）、拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）和绿弯菌门（Chloroflexi）,优势下级阶元为γ-变形菌纲（Gammaproteobacteria）、α-变形菌纲（Alphaproteobacteria）和δ-变形菌纲（Deltaproteobacteria）.银川市典型湖泊门水平分类上出现的主要差异物种为变形菌门（Proteobacteria）、拟杆菌门（Bacteroidetes）、广古菌门（Euryarchaeota）、厚壁菌门（Firmicutes）、放线菌门（Actinobacteria）和酸杆菌门（Acidobacteria）.阅海湖沉积物细菌群落结构与Cu、Fe、Mn、Zn、As和Pb显著相关,鸣翠湖沉积物细菌群落结构与Fe、Pb和Cr显著相关,犀牛湖沉积物细菌群落结构与重金属相关关系不显著.沉积物重金属的种类和含量对银川市阅海湖和鸣翠湖沉积物细菌群落结构有显著影响,是引起湖泊沉积物细菌群落结构变化的重要环境因子.