突发事件应急响应规范化势在必行——“7．23”甬温线特大铁路交通事故应急响应反思

本文采用“7．23”甬温特大铁路交通事故应急响应过程中出现的部分情景,按时间序列刻画出因果关系鱼刺图,分析其中应急准备、生命救援、应急指挥和现场保护等几个关键节点显露的现象与原因。认为该事件应急响应活动所出现问题症结之一是缺乏应急救援规范和标准化,映射出某些关键响应行动自由裁量的随意性大于制度规范性。针对突发事件应急响应中涌现出系统脆弱性和我国公共安全管理体系结构性缺陷,作者建议应尽快制修订有关应急准备、应急指挥和事故调查等方面的规程和标准,从制度上规范应急响应行为,提高重大突发事件应对能力。     

Interactions between cod, herring and sprat in the changing environment of the Baltic Sea: A dynamic model analysis

The interactions between cod (Gadus morhua), herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Central Baltic Sea were examined with a simple dynamic model, an alternative to more complicated and data-demanding multispecies and ecosystem models. The main aims of the study were to compare the effect of alternative structures on the model output and examine the control relationships in the fish assemblage under different environmental conditions. The effect of environmental conditions was modelled using a stock-recruitment equation for cod incorporating an environmental index. The model output was especially sensitive to the functional response in predation by cod on herring and sprat. The type II functional response led to a collapse of the clupeid stocks when cod was abundant, while the type III response produced more realistic stock dynamics. According to the simulations, an abundant cod stock was able to keep the sprat stock at a low level, while the herring stock was less affected and benefited from the decreased density of sprat. Simulation of different fishing scenarios indicated that reducing fishing mortality to the level currently advised by ICES would allow the recovery of the cod stock even in unfavourable environmental conditions.     

响应面法优化Paraconiothyrium variabile GHJ-4产漆酶发酵条件

为提高子囊菌Paraconiothyrium variabile GHJ-4产漆酶的能力,采用响应面法对其发酵条件进行优化.首先用Plackett-Burman法筛选出4个影响较大的重要因素,分别为:接种量(X1)、培养时间(X2)、装样量(X3)和转速(X4).继而采用最陡爬坡路径逼近最大响应区域,并结合中心组合试验...     

爆炸荷载作用下方钢管混凝土柱的动力响应及破坏机理

方钢管混凝土柱是被广泛采用的组合构件之一.爆炸发生时产生的爆炸冲击波可能会对框架结构内部的方钢管混凝土拄造成严重破坏,然而目前对其动力响应及破坏机理的研究成果相对较少.本文采用有限元分析软件ANSYS/LS-DYNA对爆炸荷载作用下方钢管混凝土柱的动力响应和破坏机理进行了研究分析.建立了方钢管混凝土拄实体有限元模型,其...     

安徽省近15年建设用地变化对碳排放效应测度及趋势预测——基于STIRPAT模型

建设用地变化的碳排放效应是现阶段土地利用变化研究热点之一.因此,本文运用安徽省统计年鉴数据,采用建设用地动态度模型及IPCC碳排放计算方法,对安徽省1997-2011年建设用地与碳排放动态变化特征进行了分析.同时,基于STIRPAT模型,采用偏最小二乘回归方法,揭示了建设用地对碳排放的边际效应,并运用SPSS软件对未来碳排放进行了预测.结果表明:研究时序内,建设用地与碳排放均呈增长态势,建设用地年均扩展速率为16.91％,碳排放年均增长6.61％,建设用地与碳排放正向效应显著;建设用地对碳排放的边际弹性系数为0.1194;惯性情景模式下,2015年、2020年安徽省建设用地扩展导致的碳排放将分别增至14472.42万t、19930.37万t;通过政策规制控制建设用地扩展趋势有利于抑制或减缓碳排放.本研究对了解安徽省碳排放变化趋势和指导土地利用规划有重要的现实意义,也可为省域尺度的建设用地碳排放效应研究提供范式借鉴.     

脉冲载荷形状对锥壳瞬态响应的影响

在进行锥壳结构瞬态响应试验之前，需要考虑各种因素对试验结果的影响，而所要施加的脉冲载荷形状是要考虑的重要因素之一，本文利用数值模拟方法研究了锥壳在侧向脉冲载荷作用下，脉冲形状对结构响应的影响，分析表明，在作用冲量相同，作用时间一致且远小于结构响应周期的条件下，脉冲形状对壳体的瞬态响应结果没有明显的影响。     

基于Brute-Force方法的京津冀区域夏季臭氧反应机制

近年来京津冀区域夏季臭氧（O₃）体积分数仍居高位,轻中度污染频繁发生,相关反应机制研究亟需开展.利用WRF-Chem模式对该区域2018年夏季代表月O₃浓度进行模拟,并基于Brute-Force方法探究了区域层面前体物减排的O₃变化.O₃在不同排放情景的变化表明,该区域O₃反应机制以VOCs控制区与非敏感区为主,VOCs控制区主要聚集京津冀中部,呈南北带状分布,面积占比15.60%~26.59%.区域各市城区的O₃浓度对前体物排放的相对响应强度（RRI）具有很大的空间差异性,对于VOCs,RRI_VOC在0.03~0.16范围内;而对于NO_x,RRI_NO_x在-0.40~0.03范围内.纬度越高的城区,RRI值越剧烈,表明了越为显著的区域输送影响.前体物排放强度高的城区,RRI_NO_x值越低,暗示RRI_NO_x对当地NO₂浓度的负向依赖;但RRI_VOC与NO₂水平无明显关联,更依赖于对前体物相对丰度（VOCs ：NO_x）.RRI_VOC与RRI_NO_x比值在多数城市表现为负值,VOCs协同减排以抑制O₃浓度恶化十分必要;该比值的绝对值在工业化和城市化高的城市远低于普通中小城市,意味着这些城市VOCs协同减排的要求将更高.然而,即使在前体物50%减排下,区域各城市O₃浓度改善仍然有限,毗邻省份的区域外联合治理也依然重要.     

A minority group's response to a severe climatic event: a case study of rural Indo-Fijians after Tropical Cyclone Winston in 2016

This paper investigates the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Winston (2016) on rural Indo-Fijians and their response to the devastation. Studies have previously examined how rural communities in Pacific Island countries respond to severe climatic events, arguing that traditional knowledge of the climate, together with indigenous techniques, contribute substantially to recovery from a disaster. Strong communal bonds have also been identified as an influencing factor. Disaster risk reduction frameworks often assume the availability of such knowledge and capital. Yet, little research has been done on how minority groups with limited access to such knowledge and capital cope with disaster-related damage. The current study shows that rural Indo-Fijians responded to the consequences of Tropical Cyclone Winston differently to indigenous Fijians, owing to relatively limited access to traditional awareness of the climate, communal labour sharing, and intra- and/or inter-community networks. The findings point to the necessity to implement a more inclusive disaster risk reduction framework.     

Post-conflict disaster governance in Nepal: one-door policy,multiple-window practice

The response to the earthquakes in Nepal on 25 April and 12 May 2015 was as overwhelming as the magnitude of the events themselves. Tensions between the humanitarian imperative and the post-conflict state-building agenda soon became evident. Many actors offered support by creatively complying with the state's approach, whereas others bypassed official channels completely. In post-conflict settings such as Nepal, the situation is especially complicated because of the contradiction between policies underscoring the importance of the state in the response and the reality of the fragility of the state, which often leads to the significant involvement of aid organisations. The post-conflict political landscape of Nepal shaped the contours of the response, as well as how actors decided to operate within them. This paper, based on empirical findings from four months of research, contributes to a better understanding of the intricacies of the post-conflict and post-disaster nexus in the context of a state-led response.     

Ce-Mn/Al2O3-H2O2催化氧化皮革废水的研究

以浸渍法制备了Ce-Mn/Al_2O_3催化剂,研究该催化剂在H_2O_2非均相类Fenton体系中对皮革废水污染物的催化降解性能.在单因素试验的基础上,以COD去除率为响应值,采用Box-Behnken响应曲面法考察了催化剂投加量、H_2O_2投加量、初始pH、反应时间等4个因素之间的单独作用及交互作用,实验数据用Design-Expert 8.0.6软件进行处理,得到二次响应曲面模型.结果表明,4个独立变量对响应值的影响顺序如下:初始pHH_2O_2投加量催化剂投加量反应时间,数学模型拟合度高(R_(adj)~2=0.9349),利用该模型预测的最大COD去除率为78.86%,最佳反应条件为:催化剂投加量56.63 g·L~(-1),H_2O_2投加量315.15 mg·L~(-1),初始pH3.51,反应时间2 h,经实验验证COD去除率为80.94%,与模型预测值偏差2.08%.