基础弹性刚度变化对铁路简支梁桥地震响应的影响研究

以某特大铁路简支梁桥为例 ,考虑m值变化对基础弹性刚度的影响 ,笔者建立了铁路简支梁桥单墩有限元计算分析模型 ;运用大型通用软件ANSYS ,采用时程分析方法 ,对不同地震输入激励条件下的桥墩动力响应进行计算研究 ;研究结果表明 ,m值变化引起的基础竖向刚度的变化对桥梁结构地震响应的影响较大。笔者的研究成果为硬土质基础的铁路简支梁桥的抗震安全设计 ,提供了重要参考。     

事故应急救援指挥中心组织架构和运行机制探讨

在分析比较国内外研究成果的基础上,以事故指挥系统为框架,结合国内的实际情况,设计了以指挥、运作、计划、后勤保障和财务五大部门为主体的事故应急救援指挥中心组织架构和职责功能,提出了事故应急救援指挥中心的运行机制,为完善我国事故应急救援理论研究提供参考.     

基于安全投入产出模型的城市安全资源优化策略

城市安全投入与安全经济效益是制约城市安全产出的两个关键因素。为了揭示两者间的关系及其在提高城市安全度方面的作用，笔者借鉴安全经济学理论和方法，在研讨安全投入产出概论的基础上，在安全经济效益不变和安全投入量已知的情况下，提出了建立安全投入产出模型的方法。并以企业为例，从微观上验证了模型的有效性。不仅为城市安全管理决策者提供了制定安全投入目标、确定安全投入效用水平的量化工具，而且更加突出了提高安全经济效益的重要性。同时，提出了建立“资源共享”的城市重大危险源安全应急网络策略，为进一步优化城市安全资源配置和提高资源利用率奠定了基础。     

极性基湿润剂与矿岩类粉尘颗粒的作用机理

根据矿岩类粉尘微颗粒的表面性质和极性基湿润剂的特性，应用分子热力学和表面物理化学理论探讨了湿润型抑尘剂与矿岩类粉尘之间的相互作用机理。矿岩类粉尘吸附水的本质是由于它们之间的相互吸引作用，是分子之间的短程相互作用力和长程作用力共同作用的结果。当矿岩类粉尘与水相碰撞时，只有当吸引力大于排斥力时，水分子才能牯附于矿岩类粉尘，表面张力和体系自由能足够小时，水才能湿润矿岩类粉尘。分析了湿润剂对水和矿岩类粉尘的表面改性的原理，它增加水和矿岩类粉尘之间的相互作用力，减小了界面表面张力和体系自由能，使矿岩粉尘被水湿润能自由地进行。     

我国民航灾害应急联动机制优化研究

针对我国现行的民航灾害应急联动救援体系所存在着多头指挥、组织形式不明确、责任关系不协调、信息沟通不顺畅、资源调度不合理等问题,运用文献检索、理论分析与实地调研相结合的方法,笔者提出优化思路:民航灾害应急联动机制应以各级民航管理当局的飞行事故应急指挥部为主要指挥决策者,采用虚拟的网络式组织形式,理顺联动单位的责任与关系,将应急联动的信息网络与各地突发公共危机事件的信息平台接轨,成立全国统一的、具有双重功能的民航灾害应急资源调度中心。其中,对民航灾害应急联动虚拟网络组织形式的设计,较好地改进了现行组织的效率,体现了快速反应和协调行动的要求。     

危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系探讨

危险品道路运输是一个复杂的系统,风险管理涉及危险品运输规划和事故应急响应。本文介绍了现有的危险品运输风险管理模式和基本管理原则,基于运输风险评估、运输路径优化、应急单位优化选址和选线、人员疏散管理以及事件决策管理等构建了危险品道路运输过程风险管理体系,阐述了系统基本要素之间的相互关系。危险品道路运输过程风险管理是一个持续改进的结构化过程风险管理体系,有助于减少危险品运输事故概率和降低运输沿线影响人员风险,为政府监管部门和危险品生产经营单位的运输安全管理、优化选线以及应急救援等工作提供技术依据,合理规划危险品运输系统。     

Environmental behaviors of phoxim with two formulations in bamboo forest under soil surface mulching

Phoxim (emulsifiable concentrate (EC) and granules (G)) has been widely used in bamboo forests. The persistence and magnitude of phoxim residues in the crop and soil must be investigated to ensure human and environmental safety. The environmental behaviors of the two formulations were investigated in a bamboo forest under soil surface mulching conditions (CP) and non-covered cultivation conditions (NCP). The half-lives of phoxim in soil under the two conditions in soil were 4.1–6.2 days (EC) and 31.5–49.5 days (G), respectively. Phoxim in EC could be leached from the topsoil into the subsoil. A minimized leaching effect was observed for G under NCP. Inversely, an enhanced leaching effect was observed for G under CP. The G formulation resulted in more parent compound (in bamboo shoots) and metabolite (in soil) residues of phoxim than in the case of EC, especially under CP conditions. In addition, the intensity and duration of the formulation effect on soil pH adjustment from G were more obvious than that from EC. Results showed that the environmental behaviors (distribution, degradation, residue) of phoxim in the bamboo forest were significantly influenced by the type of formulation. The prolongation effect from phoxim G might cause persistence and long-term environmental risk. However, bamboo shoot consumption could be considered relatively safe after applying the recommended dose of the two phoxim formulations.     

Does Including Soil Moisture Observations Improve Operational Streamflow Forecasts in Snow‐Dominated Watersheds?

Changing climate and growing water demand are increasing the need for robust streamflow forecasts. Historically, operational streamflow forecasts made by the Natural Resources Conservation Service have relied on precipitation and snow water equivalent observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) sites. We investigate whether also including SNOTEL soil moisture observations improve April‐July streamflow volume forecast accuracy at 0, 1, 2, and 3‐month lead times at 12 watersheds in Utah and California. We found statistically significant improvement in 0 and 3‐month lead time accuracy in 8 of 12 watersheds and 10 of 12 watersheds for 1 and 2‐month lead times. Surprisingly, these improvements were insensitive to soil moisture metrics derived from soil physical properties. Forecasts were made with volumetric water content (VWC) averaged from October 1 to the forecast date. By including VWC at the 0‐month lead time the forecasts explained 7.3% more variability and increased the streamflow volume accuracy by 8.4% on average compared to standard forecasts that already explained an average 77% of the variability. At 1 to 3‐month lead times, the inclusion of soil moisture explained 12.3‐26.3% more variability than the standard forecast on average. Our findings indicate including soil moisture observations increased statistical streamflow forecast accuracy and thus, could potentially improve water supply reliability in regions affected by changing snowpacks.     

Does the Temporal Resolution of Precipitation Input Influence the Simulated Hydrological Components Employing the SWAT Model?

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of sub‐daily precipitation time steps on model performance and hydrological components by applying the Green and Ampt infiltration method using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Precipitation was measured at a resolution of 0.1 mm and aggregated to 5‐, 15‐, 30‐, and 60‐min time steps. Daily discharge data over a 10‐year period were used to calibrate and validate the model. Following a global sensitivity analysis, relevant parameters were optimized through an automatic calibration procedure using SWAT‐CUP for each time step. Daily performance statistics were almost equal among all four time steps (NSE ≈ 0.47). Discharge mainly consisted of groundwater flow (55%) and tile flow (42%), in reasonable proportions for the investigated catchment. In conclusion, model outputs were almost identical, showing simulations responded nearly independently of the chosen precipitation time step. This held true for (1) the selection of sensitive parameters, (2) performance statistics, (3) the shape of the hydrographs, and (4) flow components. However, a scenario analysis revealed that the precipitation time step becomes important when saturated hydraulic conductivities are low and curve numbers are high. The study suggests that there is no need in using precipitation time steps <1 h for lowland catchments dominated by soils with a low surface runoff potential if daily flow values are being considered. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on SWAT Applications for Emerging Hydrologic and Water Quality Challenges. See the February 2017 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

不同pH值下腐殖酸反渗透膜污染中的界面相互作用解析

应用extended derjaguin-landau-verwey-overbeek (扩展DLVO) 理论评价不同pH值下范德华力、静电力、疏水性力3种界面相互作用对腐殖酸反渗透(reverse osmosis, RO)膜污染的贡献,探究pH值影响腐殖酸RO膜污染的主控机制.对3种常规RO膜的理论分析结果表明,静电力对腐殖酸RO膜污染的贡献很小,范德华力使膜污染加剧;疏水性力会减缓膜污染.与前期粘附阶段相比,后期粘聚阶段中范德华力的贡献有所增大,疏水性力在2个污染阶段中均起主导作用.膜污染随pH值的降低而加重,疏水性力作用能的改变是pH值影响系统界面自由能的主控机制.相应pH值下3种RO膜过滤实验数据及其相关性分析结果表明,扩展DLVO理论能定量评价3种界面相互作用的贡献,界面自由能和膜污染之间有很好的相关关系,RO膜纯水接触角的数值不宜作为评价膜污染的指标.