受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法研究

为了系统、客观地评估受限水域船舶积压衍生风险,实现对船舶积压风险的防控,进行船舶积压风险测度方法的研究。阐述了受限水域船舶积压风险的3种表现形式,提炼了风险表现形式的测评指标,提出了受限水域船舶积压指数,并建立了以二元Logistic回归为核心的风险测度模型,对积压风险测评指标进行量化处理,最后通过对三峡-葛洲坝枢纽船舶积压风险的实证分析验证测度方法的可行性。结果表明,受限水域船舶积压风险测度方法可以根据水域特征筛选积压风险主要测评指标,并最终得到积压衍生风险发生概率预测公式,预测并判断相应水域某一时期的船舶积压衍生风险严重程度,对实时测度和降低受限水域船舶积压风险、完善受限水域船舶通航安全预警和相关软件开发运用具有重要意义。     

生活污水处理厂转刷曝气机改造

天津港东突堤生活污水处理转刷曝气机，更新改造后，两个转刷曝气机在运行中多次出现转刷运行不平稳，震动加大的现象，经检查为尾端轴承损坏造成。我们对曝气转刷尾端轴承损坏的原因进行了研究和分析，找到了造成转刷尾端轴承频繁损坏的原因，通过认真的研究论证，制定了改造方案，成功的对转刷曝气机的转刷进行了技术改造。     

燃煤退火炉的黑烟治理

分析了燃煤退火炉黑烟产生的原因和治理现状;提出使用抽条平推炉排燃煤机(由机械进煤代替人工加煤),有效地治理了黑烟,而且还有较好的节能效果。     

基于公司行业结构的哈尔滨跨区域联系网络分析

在“流动空间”背景下,城市网络中次级城市受到区域经济研究的关注。区域内部及跨区域联系对次级城市发展的作用关系到城市区际合作的成败,但对其认识存在差异。以行业结构作为切入点,基于机器学习行业分类后的工商企业数据,研究哈尔滨与东北地区城市联系的总量变化及行业特征,发现:（1）哈尔滨的内向经济联系中,东北地区城市的重要性在减退,其外向网络腹地范围正在缩小;（2）哈尔滨与东北地区的产业联系有制造业联系下降及服务业低端化的趋势;（3）与全国相比,东北地区内部缺乏“服务中心”。通过研究哈尔滨与东北地区以外城市联系与距离、地区生产总值（GRP）等的关系,以及行业比较优势,发现:（1）哈尔滨联系网络呈现无标度网络特征,与国家中心城市的联系不符合距离衰减规律,且连接度与GRP强线性正相关;（2）哈尔滨的高级生产者服务业联系集聚化,制造业与其他服务业联系偏长尾分布。相对于联系广度,更应重视与少数“服务中心”的联系质量。     

基于机器学习的成渝地区空气质量数值预报PM2.5订正方法研究

空气质量预报对于大气污染防治、打赢蓝天保卫战意义重大.本研究基于重庆市气象局的中尺度天气模式（WRF）和空气质量数值预报模式（CMAQ）的预报产品,采用2018年4个代表月份（1、4、7、10月,分别代表冬、春、夏和秋季）成渝地区22个观测站点的PM_2.5浓度和气象要素观测数据,建立基础特征变量数据集（包括训练数据集和测试数据集）,通过调整模型参数,并利用训练数据集采用机器学习方法（Lasso回归、随机森林回归、深度学习RNN-LSTM）进行模型训练,订正了成渝地区PM_2.5数值预报.其中,通过Lasso回归算法对成渝地区4个区域分别进行变量优选,优化模型,利用测试数据集对模型进行测试并检验评估.结果表明,基于3种机器学习方法订正后的PM_2.5小时浓度相比CMAQ模式模拟预报结果,偏差显著降低,相关系数显著提高.其中,随机森林回归和RNN-LSTM的订正效果优于Lasso回归,区域统计与站点统计结果较为一致;Lasso回归订正后的均方根误差减小50%左右,相关系数达70%,随机森林回归和RNN-LSTM订正后的均方根误差减小70%左右,相关系数达90%,随机森林回归与RNN-LSTM订正后的偏差范围相比Lasso回归集中范围更窄,最大概率分布更集中;3种方法对不同季节的订正效果与全年一致,其中,冬季订正效果更为显著.研究结果可为提高我国重点城市群区域—成渝地区PM_2.5浓度的大气污染预报能力提供有益参考.     

Thermal performance of ice-making machine with a multi-channel evaporator

An experimental investigation is presented in this paper on the vapor compression refrigeration cycle used in an ice-making machine with a multi-channel evaporator. To study the operation performance of the refrigeration system in the ice-making machine, the fluid temperature distribution in multi-channel evaporating coils are tested and the dynamic variations in each cooling loop are investigated during the ice-generating phase. The results show that the external cooling loops have the largest temperature fluctuations caused by the large initial refrigerant injecting mass flow and the external environmental disturbances. For the inner cooling loops, the related temperature profiles of different test points have relative stable variations. To reduce the temperature fluctuations of the outside loops, it is suggested to reduce the initial refrigerant mass flow and adjust the initial opening of the thermal expansion valve. Moreover, it is the normal phenomenon for the slight temperature variations for the temperature curves of different test points, caused by the adjustment of thermal expansion valve. During the ice-making process, both the sensible heat removal phase and latent heat removal phase are experienced successively. To remove the sensible heat of water, the refrigerant system is operating in high efficiency with test points having a rapid linear temperature reduction. While for eliminating the latent heat of ice, it requires much more power supply, the relating test points have a temperature decrease with fluctuations. To improve the operation performance of ice machine, some suggestions and improvements are proposed.     

基于SVM的通风系统故障诊断惩罚系数与核函数系数优化研究

使用支持向量机（SVM）方法对矿井通风系统进行故障诊断,存在惩罚系数（c）和核函数系数（g）,通过人工方法选取效率低、难以达到较高准确率并且出现过拟合的问题。为了提高矿井通风故障诊断的效率、准确率,同时避免过拟合现象,提出了一种改进遗传算法（GA）,在故障诊断过程中对支持向量机的c,g参数进行优化。经过多组试验分析,研究结果表明:用遗传算法优化的SVM矿井通风故障诊断系统相比于未优化系统的故障诊断准确率有所提升,参数未优化前故障诊断的准确率为60%,优化后的准确率为97.894 7%,并且优化参数经过大数据样本验证,未出现过拟合现象,证明了本文提出方法的有效性。     

某大型机加车间数控机床减噪工程测试与分析研究

为研究大型机加车间噪声减噪工程现状效果和特点,选取某大型机加车间数控机床为研究对象,对其进行减噪工程治理,现场实测了治理前和治理后的噪声数据,并对噪声测量结果进行分析。研究结果表明:数控机床操作人员8 h连续等效A声级从治理前的89.2 dB(A),降到治理后的74.3 dB(A),降低了16.7%.;数控机床操作岗位位置测点,在加工1个机件的测量时间段里,噪声值从治理前的85.9 dB(A),降到治理后的55.1 dB(A),降低了33.85%;对机加车间现场布置了67个测点,在加工1个机件的测量时间段里进行测量,得到该车间噪声治理前和治理后噪声分布图;对数控机床减噪工程治理前和治理后的频谱进行了分析,得出治理前和治理后各自的最大声级所在频段不随距离的改变而改变,高频减噪效果显著。     

Quantifying the relative irreplaceability of important bird and biodiversity areas

World governments have committed to increase the global protected areas coverage by 2020, but the effectiveness of this commitment for protecting biodiversity depends on where new protected areas are located. Threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches have been independently used to identify important sites for biodiversity. We brought together these approaches by performing a complementarity‐based analysis of irreplaceability in important bird and biodiversity areas (IBAs), which are sites identified using a threshold‐based approach. We determined whether irreplaceability values are higher inside than outside IBAs and whether any observed difference depends on known characteristics of the IBAs. We focused on 3 regions with comprehensive IBA inventories and bird distribution atlases: Australia, southern Africa, and Europe. Irreplaceability values were significantly higher inside than outside IBAs, although differences were much smaller in Europe than elsewhere. Higher irreplaceability values in IBAs were associated with the presence and number of restricted‐range species; number of criteria under which the site was identified; and mean geographic range size of the species for which the site was identified (trigger species). In addition, IBAs were characterized by higher irreplaceability values when using proportional species representation targets, rather than fixed targets. There were broadly comparable results when measuring irreplaceability for trigger species and when considering all bird species, which indicates a good surrogacy effect of the former. Recently, the International Union for Conservation of Nature has convened a consultation to consolidate global standards for the identification of key biodiversity areas (KBAs), building from existing approaches such as IBAs. Our results informed this consultation, and in particular a proposed irreplaceability criterion that will allow the new KBA standard to draw on the strengths of both threshold‐ and complementarity‐based approaches.     

基于AHP-FUZZY与SVM理论电网雷害风险评估

为了对电网遭受雷击灾害风险进行研究,以高压输电线路多个雷害影响因子为出发点对其进行归类,解决了以单因子雷击跳闸率作为高压输电线路遭受雷害评价指标的不足。采用AHP(层次分析法)-FUZZY(模糊数学理论)对电网雷害风险展开评估分级,引入某地500 k V电网工程实例,成功将该地电网雷害风险等级定为Ⅲ级中等雷害风险。为验证AHP-FUZZY法对电网雷害风险进行评估的准确性及可靠度,采用SVM(支持向量机)理论对工程实例进行分析计算,结果相关性系数R2为0.932,预测错误率为0,表明本次风险评估是可靠的,能够为电网雷害风险研究提供较大的理论与实际支撑。