Incentive compatibility tests of choice experiment value elicitation questions

This paper uses laboratory experiments with induced values to address fundamental issues related to the incentive compatibility of choice experiment value elicitation questions. In particular, we compare two- versus three-option choice sets and the effect of using alternative provision rules, including one where the outcome is influenced by both participant and “regulator” votes. We find the overall proportion of choices that are inconsistent with induced preferences is rather low. However, there are more deviations from induced preferences for two-option choice sets, and for alternatives to a simple plurality vote implementation rule. A multinomial probit analysis of choices in tandem with a mixed logit welfare analysis suggests there is a statistically significant but modest degree of bias towards selecting the status quo option.     

基于热风险理论对道化学评价中物质系数的研究

随着本质安全研究的深入,道化学评价方法中物质系数MF的计算已不能准确描述反应物本身的热风险大小。在道化学评价方法中引入热风险概念,比较热危险性评价方法和道化学评价方法间相异点;以六甲基磷酰三胺工艺为研究对象,用DSC量热仪对反应物进行分析得出放热速率q、反应波峰峰值、单位质量的反应焓Hr,对采集的工艺参数用热力学理论外推法、基因贡献法得出活化能E、比热容CP并以此求出最大反应失效时间TMRad、绝热温升Qad、物质系数MF值以及工艺单元中物料量。得出最大反应失效时间与物质系数MF间具有相关性,道化学评价方法对因失效反应引发二次反应的热风险评估也适用。     

概率统计在矿井通风系统可靠性评估中的应用

构建一个随机非稳定地下矿山通风系统,此通风系统有三个机组,机组的随机运行状态构成了一个完整的“系统的概率结构”。对此通风系统的运行状态进行概率统计分析,探讨了该随机系统的特征。由此推导出了通风系统故障的平均时间是一个显式的概率表达式。同时,假设系统失效时间和更换时间符合指数分布的情况下,得出计算系统故障平均时间的一个五阶多项式公式。通过验证,证明了系统故障平均时间的大小依赖于系统维修和更换的比率,而且是检验系统可靠性的重要指标,有利于提高矿山安全水平。     

API Standard 521 new alternative method to evaluate fire relief for pressure relief device sizing and depressuring system design

Since the 1950's, API Standards have provided guidance on determining relief loads for equipment exposed to pool fires. The API method is empirical based on tests performed in the 1940's. There is increasingly widespread interest in analytical methods based on heat transfer principles to model fire heat input. The API committee agreed to include an analytical method in the 6th edition of API Standard 521 to establish relief loads for pressure relief devices and to design depressuring systems for the fire scenario. The analytical method provides more flexibility than the empirical method but has limitations (e.g., too many permutations are possible leading to potential under-sizing of the pressure relief device).This paper discusses the basis for the empirical method in API Standard 521 and provides comparisons of the empirical and analytical method with two more recent large-scale pool fire tests. This pool fire test data indicates that the empirical method will provide a conservative estimate of pool fire heat input for most applications and is still the method of choice when designing pressure relief systems. However, these recent tests indicate the empirical method needs to be modified when a vessel or equipment is partially confined by adjacent embankments or walls equal or greater than the vessel height. In such cases, the wetted area exponent should be 1.0 instead of 0.82.The analytical method is useful in determining time-versus-temperature profiles for heating unwetted vessels of varying wall thicknesses and materials of construction. These profiles, which depend upon the type of fire (e.g., unconfined pool fire, jet fire, etc.), can be combined with tensile strength and stress-rupture data to specify a depressuring system's pressure-versus-time profile. This will minimize failure and/or mitigate the effects of failure due to overheating from fire exposure.     

城镇污水处理排放标准改革的费效分析

从费用效果角度对提高城镇污水处理排放标准的科学性和可实施性进行探讨,利用污染源普查数据,通过城镇污水治理投资和运行函数的构建,计算不同处理规模和排放标准下的污水处理投资和运行费用,在全国层面上计算提高污水处理排放标准所需费用和污染物的减排效果.研究表明：污水处理厂的投资和运行费用的增加随着污水处理规模的增加而递减.以污...     

Analysis of car-to-bicycle approach patterns for developing active safety devices

Objective: To reduce the severity of injuries and the number of cyclist deaths in traffic accidents, active safety devices providing cyclist detection are considered to be effective countermeasures. The features of car-to-bicycle collisions need to be known in detail to develop such safety devices.

Methods: The study investigated near-miss situations captured by drive recorders installed in passenger cars. Because similarities in the approach patterns between near-miss incidents and real-world fatal cyclist accidents in Japan were confirmed, we analyzed the 229 near-miss incident data via video capturing bicycles crossing the road in front of forward-moving cars. Using a video frame captured by a drive recorder, the time to collision (TTC) was calculated from the car's velocity and the distance between the car and bicycle at the moment when the bicycle initially appeared.

Results: The average TTC in the cases where bicycles emerged from behind obstructions was shorter than that in the cases where drivers had unobstructed views of the bicycles. In comparing the TTC of car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents to the previously obtained results of car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents, it was determined that the average TTC in car-to-bicycle near-miss incidents was significantly longer than that in car-to-pedestrian near-miss incidents.

Conclusions: When considering the TTC in the test protocol of evaluation for safety performance of active safety devices, we propose individual TTCs for evaluation of cyclist and pedestrian detections, respectively. In the test protocols, the following 2 scenarios should be employed: bicycle emerging from behind an unobstructed view and bicycle emerging from behind obstructions.     

Exploring the association between working memory and driving performance in Parkinson's disease

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore whether varying levels of operational and tactical driving task demand differentially affect drivers with Parkinson's disease (PD) and control drivers in their sign recall.

Methods: Study participants aged between 50 and 70 years included a group of drivers with PD (n = 10) and a group of age- and sex-matched control drivers (n = 10). Their performance in a sign recall task was measured using a driving simulator.

Results: Drivers in the control group performed better than drivers with PD in a sign recall task, but this trend was not statistically significant (P =.43). In addition, regardless of group membership, subjects' performance differed according to varying levels of task demand. Performance in the sign recall task was more likely to drop with increasing task demand (P =.03). This difference was significant when the variation in task demand was associated with a cognitive task; that is, when drivers were required to apply the instructions from working memory.

Conclusions: Although the conclusions drawn from this study are tentative, the evidence presented here is encouraging with regard to the use of a driving simulator to examine isolated cognitive functions underlying driving performance in PD. With an understanding of its limitations, such driving simulation in combination with functional assessment batteries measuring physical, visual, and cognitive abilities could comprise one component of a multitiered system to evaluate medical fitness to drive.     

2008年江苏持续性降雪中的水汽和动力抬升机制分析

2008年1月下旬江苏省出现了历史罕见的持续性暴雪过程,研究发现,降雪量的大小与低空急流的日变化相对应,暴雪过程中700 hPa西南急流对水汽的输送起着重要的作用,作为大尺度天气系统,700 hPa急流的加速发生在降雪量增大之前,其值阈大小与6 h降雪量之间没有对应关系,急流减弱在暴雪结束以后;降雪的发生和发展与南北风的增大和冷暖平流有关,低层偏北风作为冷垫对暖湿气流的抬升和水汽的凝结起到了一定的作用;江苏降雪过程中水汽主要来源于700～500 hPa,低层东风气流对黄海南部的水汽输送非常有限;强降雪的发生与700 hPa水汽通量散度相对应,水汽通量散度辐合增大,降雪量增大;在降雪过程中垂直运动对降雪量的大小有很好的指示意义。     

投加粉末活性炭对一体式膜-生物反应器膜污染的影响研究

通过试验考察了粉末活性炭（PAC）对一体式膜-生物反应器中膜污染的影响．在2种类型的污泥（膨胀污泥和非膨胀）中，投加适量PAC可以减轻膜污染，表现为临界膜通量的提高和连续运行中膜污染增长速率的降低．当污泥性质和浓度不同时，最佳PAC投加范围亦不同．PAC投量过大会引起临界通量下降．PAC的投加显著降低了混合液中溶解性物质的浓度，减轻了溶解性物质的吸附和膜孔堵塞污染，并改善了絮体结构．污泥比阻与污泥混合液膜过滤性能之间有很好的相关性，可作为污泥混合液膜过滤性能的快速评价指标．     

Overcoming Environmental Challenges by Antagonizing Environmental Protesters: The Turkish Government Discourse against Anti-hydroelectric Power Plants Movements

Due to the growing public importance of environmental concerns in the contemporary world, governments that prioritize economic interests over environmental concerns may try to counter environmental challenges not by openly declaring that they do not want to consider environmental demands, but by attempting to antagonize the protesters who voice such demands. This essay explores such a governmental response by analyzing the discourse articulated by the Turkish Government against movements that oppose the construction of hydroelectric power plants (HEPPs) on environmental grounds. In particular, the analysis focuses on how HEPPs, environmental claims and demands of movements, and environmental protesters are represented within the pro-HEPP discourse, and in what ways these representations appeal to popular perceptions. It is demonstrated that the discourse of the government attempts to counter the challenges of protesters by establishing an antagonist relation between the protesters and society by representing HEPPs as crucial for the economic development and, therefore, as compatible with the interests of society as a whole. Moreover, it also attempts to achieve this through portraying the protesters as criminals and terrorists who block the economic development of the country and pose significant threats to the commonwealth, not for legitimate environmental concerns but for some dubious motives and incentives. It is concluded that, with this approach, the government has managed to gain popular consent not only for the construction of HEPPs, but also for the repression of such movements.