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201.
基于岩体质量指标Q分类系统,应用Monte-Carlo模拟技术,研究了岩体质量风险分析方法。该方法视Q分类系统中各单因素取值为随机变量,建立了各单因素取值概率模型;通过对所建模型的抽样计算,可获取所评价岩体实际Q值小于设计所采用Q值的概率;通过对比分析Q值累计曲线和岩体质量分布图,可得到任意Q值对应的风险概率,查清岩体中可能出现的质量等级以及每个质量等级所占百分比的情况。本文研究成果已在青岛胶州湾海底隧道工程中得到应用,并获得良好效果。 相似文献
202.
利用基于信息扩散理论的风险评估方法 ,对地震灾害进行了风险分析。该方法简单易行 ,分析结果意义清楚 ,对防灾抗灾具有一定的指导作用。 相似文献
203.
Lemly AD 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2007,125(1-3):361-375
This paper gives step-by-step instructions for assessing aquatic selenium hazards associated with mining. The procedure was
developed to provide the U.S. Forest Service with a proactive capability for determining the risk of selenium pollution when
it reviews mine permit applications in accordance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). The procedural framework
is constructed in a decision-tree format in order to guide users through the various steps, provide a logical sequence for
completing individual tasks, and identify key decision points. There are five major components designed to gather information
on operational parameters of the proposed mine as well as key aspects of the physical, chemical, and biological environment
surrounding it — geological assessment, mine operation assessment, hydrological assessment, biological assessment, and hazard
assessment. Validation tests conducted at three mines where selenium pollution has occurred confirmed that the procedure will
accurately predict ecological risks. In each case, it correctly identified and quantified selenium hazard, and indicated the
steps needed to reduce this hazard to an acceptable level. By utilizing the procedure, NEPA workers can be confident in their
ability to understand the risk of aquatic selenium pollution and take appropriate action. Although the procedure was developed
for the Forest Service it should also be useful to other federal land management agencies that conduct NEPA assessments, as
well as regulatory agencies responsible for issuing coal mining permits under the authority of the Surface Mining Control
and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) and associated Section 401 water quality certification under the Clean Water Act. Mining companies
will also benefit from the application of this procedure because priority selenium sources can be identified in relation to
specific mine operating parameters. The procedure will reveal the point(s) at which there is a need to modify operating conditions
to meet environmental quality goals. By recognizing concerns early in the NEPA process, it may be possible for a mining company
to match operational parameters with environmental requirements, thereby increasing the likelihood that the permit application
will be approved. 相似文献
204.
王长永 《生态与农村环境学报》2000,16(1)
转基因生物风险评估和管理的国家能力建设的内容,包括机构、机制、专家知识、环境监测以及信息收集和交流等。风险评估和管理的能力建设必须根据本国生物技术研究和应用水平、资金、信息以及人员数量和素质来确定其优先领域、行动和项目。目前,中国转基因生物风险评估和管理的国家能力建设工作亟待开展的有:成立国家生物安全委员会;建立转基因生物风险评估和管理的制度以及公众参与的机制;提高技术人员和管理者在生态学、遗传学和风险评估方法学等方面的专家技能;制定转基因生物的环境监测规划;建立有关转基因生物的环境监测网络和基地;新建一批生物安全数据库和信息库 相似文献
205.
典型地区农用地污染调查及风险管控标准探讨 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
针对《土壤污染风险管控标准——农用地土壤污染风险管控标准》(GB 15618—2018),提出以土壤中全量浓度筛选值和管控值作为衡量农用地土壤污染风险管控的标准,对湖南省部分稻田农用地土壤及点对点稻米样品中镉、铅、砷、汞的总量和有效态浓度及稻米中含量进行监测,根据重金属总量浓度分为低风险、中风险、高风险3组。结果显示:(1)土壤及稻米中镉含量基本为随着风险级别的升高而增加,铅、砷在土壤和稻米中含量无规律性结果,汞监测结果均为未检出。(2)低风险组稻米镉超标率为12. 0%,高风险组稻米镉达标率为33. 3%,表明利用总量浓度对农用地土壤潜在风险进行分组存在一定的局限性。(3)依据4种重金属在土壤中总量及稻米(早稻)中含量情况,对风险级别进行调整并综合判断:有58个样品为低风险组,占样品总数的68. 2%,超标率为零;有15个样品为中风险组,占样品总数的17. 7%,超标率为80. 0%;有12个样品为高风险组,占样品总数的14. 1%,超标率为100. 0%。调整后评价结果与上述标准的划分目标更接近,能够提高上述标准的准确性和实用性。 相似文献
206.
基于双指标多等级的土壤重金属生态风险评价 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
采用土壤中重金属的全量和有效态双重指标,建立基于多等级综合评估的土壤中重金属生态风险评价模型,将联合概率曲线法引入土壤评价模型,分析重金属暴露浓度与毒性数据的概率分布,考察重金属对土壤生物的毒害程度,从而确定土壤中重金属对于生态系统的风险。建立从简单到复杂的多等级综合评价方法,表征重金属的污染等级、浓度效应、多种重金属污染物的协同效应、不同重金属的毒性效应和土壤对不同重金属污染物的敏感性。选择典型地区采集有代表性的土壤样品,测定不同重金属的总量和有效态,验证评价模型的实用性和评价分级的合理性。旨在解决土壤重金属风险评价的方法学问题,为土壤环境质量管理提供支持。 相似文献
207.
Kaitlin T. Raimi Alexander Maki David Dana Michael P. Vandenbergh 《Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture》2019,13(3):300-319
The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard. 相似文献
208.
Graham Dixon Olivia Bullock Dinah Adams 《Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture》2019,13(2):135-143
In 2017, the United States experienced a series of natural hazards (hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards) that resulted in significant loss of life and property. Emphasizing the role of climate change in these events might offer an important tool for engagement, particularly with skeptical audiences. However, in a survey experiment (N?=?1504) involving three different natural hazards – hurricanes, wildfires, and blizzards – we find that emphasizing the role of climate change in these hazards produced unintended effects for climate change skeptics. In particular, skeptics experienced resistance to the news article, which associated with reduced perceived hazard severity. These backfiring effects likely serve as a defensive mechanism used by skeptics to maintain their prior views of climate change, illustrating the challenges faced in communicating climate change to skeptical audiences. These findings offer additional insight for those attempting to communicate climate-related risk information to skeptical audiences. 相似文献
209.
Kan-Kan Wu 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(5):826-842
Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool for analyzing potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts, and has found wide application in supporting decision-making processes over the last two decades. However, to date there has been no interrelated application of ERA to support the processes of strategic decision-making (SDM), especially in coastal areas.
In this paper, we attempt to verify the feasibility of the proposed integrated ERA–SDM approach and its methodology by applying it to two case studies (in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay) of the principal coastal functional zoning (PCFZ, a kind of SDM and similar to the coastal and marine spatial planning in western). The results show that the integrated ERA–SDM approach could integrate ERA into the entire SDM process, directly support the PCFZ, and avoid or mitigate dire environmental risk that can be introduced by SDM processes. 相似文献
210.
为了确定危险品道路运输安全容量,保障危险品道路运输安全,基于风险理念,使用对比研究方法,提出危险品道路运输个人风险基准,建立改进的危险品道路运输定量风险评估模型。结合提出的风险基准,提出危险品运输安全容量确定方法,解决了单一类别和多种类别危险品运输安全容量确定问题。研究结果表明:在某城市化工集聚区的实例应用该方法,能够大幅度降低危险品道路运输潜在生命损失,有助于保障危险品道路运输安全。 相似文献