集对分析在煤炭自然发火危险性评价上的应用

为了解煤炭自然发火危险性程度,及时对采空区在发火前采取相关措施,对其进行发火危险性评价显得尤为重要。提出了基于集对分析的煤炭自然发火危险性评价方法,以集对分析理论为基础,将煤炭自然发火看成一个确定不确定系统,建立了煤炭自然发火评价模型。以梁家煤矿4110采空区为例,将计算结果与基于熵权未知理论的评价结果作比较,得出的结论一致。表明了集对分析运用在煤炭自然发火危险性评价上是可行的,可为矿井生产和其他系统的分析评价提供参考     

海洋石油轮班作业风险定量分析方法研究

长期以来,海洋石油领域风险研究主要集中在对设施的潜在失效概率和后果研究方面,而对于人员可靠性及风险管理方面的研究较弱。然而,据统计资料显示,海上设施在其生命周期内的设计、建造和生产作业等各个阶段中发生的事故大多与人为错误和组织错误（HOE）有关联。在海洋工程领域,开展人员可靠性分析（HRA）的研究工作具有重要意义。根据海上作业的特殊性及轮班制度的特点,推导出轮班风险的定量分析公式,据此计算出每个工作日轮班风险的相对大小,然后结合我国海上作业的实际情况,对影响轮班风险的可变因素进行了敏感性分析,为风险控制与管理提供参考。     

滴水湖水系沉积物中多环芳烃的分布及风险评价

2012年,每两个月采集一次上海人工滩涂湖泊——滴水湖水系表层沉积物,检测16种多环芳烃(PAHs)含量.结果表明,滴水湖水系∑PAHs变化范围为74.03~579.20ng/g,平均值为272.55ng/g.其中,闸外引水河[(407.64±6.90)ng/g]≈闸内引水河[(427.99±213.84)ng/g]>滴水湖[(156.33±62.00)ng/g].研究区各点蒽/(蒽+菲)比值均大于0.1,说明PAHs主要来自于石油燃烧源.生态风险评价表明,滴水湖水系沉积物PAHs不存在严重的生态风险,但闸外和闸内引水河沉积物PAHs存在较低几率的潜在风险,湖区沉积物PAHs则无潜在风险.     

Background metal levels determination in bivalves – quality assessment of the European Water Framework Directive

Background levels of metals (Ag, Cd, Cu, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in biomonitors (Mytilus galloprovincialis mussels and Crassostrea gigas oysters), in estuarine waters within the Basque Country (south-east Bay of Biscay) are estimated using non-parametric statistical tools and data are presented graphically, with the aim of being used in assessing the ecological status, within the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The basis for this study was the statistical analysis of data compiled from monitoring programmes undertaken along the Basque coast, between 1990 and 2008. For this analysis, a heuristic method was adapted and used. Results showed different metal background ranges throughout the year for both mussels and oysters. Values corresponding to the upper limit of the background range (i.e. value of the upper whisker of the box-plot) are proposed as the ‘high/good’ status boundary, according to the WFD.     

Climate change,risk management and the end of Nomadic pastoralism

Mobility has been argued to be the single factor explaining why some pastoralists do relatively well during extreme climatic events, while others do not, because mobility works by taking advantage of the spatial and temporal structure of resource failure by moving away from scarcity towards abundance. In spite of this, a common governmental management strategy is to resettle pastoral populations and thereby significantly reduce mobility. By revealing the underlying logic of mobility for Tibetan pastoralists, this paper questions official policy that aims at privatizing communally owned rangelands since it reduces pastoral flexibility and access to key resources. This is especially pertinent in the face of climate change. While little is known as to the specifics of how climate change will affect nomadic pastoralists, environmental variability is likely to increase. Consequently, policies resulting in decreased mobility may exacerbate the negative effects of climate change because of a positive feedback between climate and negative density dependence.     

Development of a risk measure as a sustainable project selection criterion

SUMMARY

Sustainable decision-making requires consideration of technology, ecology, and the social and political infrastructure of society. While it may never be possible to identify with certainty what is sustainable and what is not, an attempt has been made in this paper to formulate a measure that permits one to compare the performances of project alternatives with respect to risk. An algorithm is presented for the evaluation of a risk criterion that can be used with other criteria in the process of selecting project alternatives. The intent of the risk criterion is to involve project stakeholders in the process of quantifying the risks associated with different project alternatives.     

食品烹调处理过程中砷的浓度、形态和生物可给性研究进展

食品作为人体砷暴露的主要途径,其砷的含量和形态备受关注。由于食品原料通常要经过烹饪加工后才会被人食用,因此,食品的烹调处理过程及方式对砷的形态及生物有效性的影响在砷的健康风险评价研究中,需要作为重要因素进行研究。通过综述不同食品烹调处理前后砷浓度、形态和生物可给性变化的相关研究,分析了砷变化的特征,探讨了相关机理,并得出如下结论:烹调处理能使食品中砷的浓度发生升高或降低;高温烹调能使食品中砷形态发生变化,目前研究结果确定的变化主要是砷甜菜碱的分解,烹调中食品砷形态变化的机理尚不明确。不同烹调方式下,食品中砷的生物可给性差异较大,砷的形态变化可能是其生物可给性差异的主要原因。烹调特别是高温烹调下食品砷浓度升高及形态变化导致的健康风险值得进一步关注。     

太湖水体中5种有机磷农药混合物生态风险评价

有机磷农药是一类广泛分布于我国水环境中的污染物,即使在水体中的污染水平处于规定“安全标准”之下,其联合暴露产生的风险仍有可能威胁水生生态安全。采用基于浓度加和模型与生物敏感度分布曲线的混合物风险商法,评价了太湖水体中敌敌畏、对硫磷、甲基对硫磷、马拉硫磷和乐果5种有机磷农药混合物产生的生态风险。结果表明：2003～2004年期间3个不同时期太湖水体中5种有机磷农药的混合物生态风险商(RQ_m )均大于1,有机磷农药混合物在2003～2004年期间对太湖水生生物构成了一定威胁。     

PCDD/Fs emission, risk characterization, and reduction in China’s secondary copper production industry

Secondary copper production is one of the key polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) emission sources in China, but research and data on this issue are rare. In 2004, when the Stockholm Convention entered into force in China, PCDD/Fs emissions from secondary copper production contributed to 32.2% of the total release. In this paper, PCDD/Fs emission dynamics from secondary copper industry were discussed and cumulative risks were characterized. From 2004 to 2009, industrial policies played an indirect role in PCDD/Fs reduction, but its effects are still limited. The Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and central regions were among the top three of dioxin emissions from secondary copper production in China. Shanghai, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Jiangxi had comparatively higher accumulated risk and were recommended as the priority regions for promoting PCDD/Fs emission control in China. From 2009 to 2015, the PCDD/Fs emission dynamics in the secondary copper industry were presented through simulation. PCDD/Fs emission equations were established, resulting in the recommendation of control technology conversion rate at 30% for small scale smelters and 51%–57% for large and medium-sized enterprises in 2015. In conclusion, both indirect policy and direct control technology retrofitting should be integrated for more effective PCDD/Fs emission reduction in secondary copper industry.     

城市环境铂族金属分布特性及生态健康风险研究进展

随着铂族金属铂（Pt）、钯（Pd）、铑（Rh）被广泛应用于汽车尾气催化净化器中,这三种金属在自然界中的含量逐渐升高。越来越多的研究表明,这几种曾被认为对环境影响较小的金属的确会带来潜在的生态健康风险。本文概括了国内外城市各种环境介质的含量分布,重点分析了铂族金属的源解析方法、粒径分布特性、影响其排放的因素和其潜在的生态健康风险。就全世界的城市来看,灰尘、空气、土壤、沉积物等各种环境介质中铂族金属的含量均有显著提高,主要来源于汽车三元催化净化器。这三种金属倾向于富集在细颗粒中,行车模式是影响其排放量的重要因素,自然界的共存物质可增强它们的溶解性和迁移性,从而使它们的生物可利用性大大提高。生物体吸收这类金属后,可与体内的物质发生反应,形态发生变化,毒性增强。在以后的研究中,除了持续跟踪调查这三种金属在环境中的含量水平以外,还应加强研究这三种金属在环境中的颗粒分布、迁移转化、形态变换、生物可利用性以及生物毒性等,使我们能够更好地评估其生态健康风险,并为与之相关的应用研发、防范措施、政策制订提供引导和支持。