Some lessons for resilience from the 2011 multi-disaster in Japan

With the goal of resilience becoming ever more present in diverse policy discourses, it is important to reflect critically on its meaning and realisation. In this viewpoint, we re-emphasise that understanding the systemic nature of social and ecological interactions and interdependencies is fundamental to developing resilience to shocks and stresses in whatever context they materialise. Through the lens of the 2011 Japanese multi-disaster, we reflect on some of the difficulties in generating knowledge to underpin resilience-building processes and illustrate some dilemmas inherent in seeking to cultivate resilience in practice. Events in Japan underscore the complex vulnerabilities of place in multi-hazard scenarios and highlight, in particular, the choices to be made in determining which systemic interactions are to be imagined, characterised, assessed and forewarned and which are not. These events also emphasise that while resilience ultimately must be located where consequences are felt, strategies for a resilient future have to take on the multi-scale interactions and tensions within which local processes are embedded. There are dangers, we argue, in thinking about resilience in overly simple and non-systemic ways and in responding to these challenges only as a matter of extended techno-managerial competence.     

Achieving sustainable lifestyles or encouraging a counter-reflexivity: exploring motivations for sustainability in a mediated risk society

Ulrich Beck's World Risk Society is becoming an increasingly relevant analysis of contemporary human/environment interaction. However, with this said, Beck's observations remain broad and significantly lacking empirical evidence. This paper explores the relationship between sustainable lifestyles and assertions of one of Beck's central ideas, the emergence of a reflexive modernity at the local scale. By empirically examining the motivation of participants for joining a scheme designed to enhance sustainable lifestyles, this paper will progressively outline the way that individuals in a risk society negotiate global images in a local context and what this means for a reflexive modernity. By exposing the complex interaction of global risk imagery and the effect this has on achieving local sustainability, a more realistic understanding of Beck's theoretical assertions can be applied to an increasingly important policy arena.     

The importance of the “not-so-cool” sectors: creative solutions to reconcile environmental and economic sustainability within a floodplain

Creative cities are generally considered as “cool” spaces which attract a particular “creative class” whose ability to innovate and transform – particularly in the media and cultural sectors – offers urban economies a competitive edge. This paper argues that, in the face of dangerous climate change, the creativity of the “not-so-cool” sectors needs to be acknowledged and valued. A case study of Salford in the north-west of England shows how political, technological and economic creativity has secured sustainable regeneration within a floodplain. It is argued that the concept of “creativity” in urban economic discourse needs to be widened to acknowledge the importance of the creativity of planners, civil engineers and builders in securing environmentally sustainable cities. Environmental sustainability, it suggests, not only underpins economic sustainability. Faced with dangerous climate change and society's need to respond, the skills and expertise can in themselves contribute to a city's competitiveness.     

High-risk ecosystems as foci for considering biodiversity and ecological integrity in ecological risk assessments

Ecological risk management historically focused on risks to human health and the immediate human environment. Increasingly, societal interest in biodiversity and ecological integrity demands that risk assessors and managers take a broader view of the environment and include non-human species and ecosystems within their realm of concern. The greatest threats to biodiversity in the USA and much of the world are habitat alteration (including conversion, degradation, and fragmentation) and exotic species invasions. This paper reviews and integrates the results of several recent studies (e.g. by The Nature Conservancy, World Wildlife Fund, Defenders of Wildlife, and the National Biological Service) that have identified regions and ecosystems that are highly distinct biologically, are rare or declining, contain high numbers of imperiled species, face immediate threats, and stand to lose considerable biodiversity in the near future. These studies converge on a set of regions that warrant urgent attention from risk managers. Focal species and functional groups of species can be selected within these regions to characterize ecological effects and track recovery of ecosystems along the same axes (e.g. habitat structure, disturbance frequency) that led to biotic impoverishment. The most fruitful approach to risk management ultimately will be one that addresses the most urgent threats at several levels of biological organization, from focal species to communities to ecoregions.     

风电行业安全生产风险特征与对策

系统检索了2000至2012年年底风电行业事故情况,从事故总数、死亡人数及事故类型展开分析。结果表明,风电行业风险具有自身特征,事故一直呈现上升趋势,其中叶片损坏、火灾、结构毁损、抛冰、交通运输、环境破坏等事故比较突出,对从业人员和公众构成威胁。我国风电行业正处于快速扩张期,内在风险较高,需引起行业主管部门和企业的高度重视,开展全产业链系统安全研究和管理手段创建,开发本质安全型工艺和设备,强化施工及运营安全管理。分析结果对指导风电行业安全管理决策和提升企业安全管理水平具有现实意义。     

基于综合素质的飞行员安全风险评价模型的构建

如何预防由飞行员自身原因所导致的航空事故,一直是全球航空系统乃至全球性公共安全重大课题。通过对飞行员综合素质,即飞行员的认知能力、人格特征以及心理健康状况的研究,分析整理出了影响飞行员飞行安全的关键素质,基于这些素质指标,构建出飞行员风险评价模型,为航空安全系统性、区域性保障提供参考。     

液化天然气燃料动力船舶定量风险分析

近年来航运耗油产生的CO2排放量很大,发展液化天然气替代原有船舶动力成为需要。在中国天然气开发应用较晚,试点改造船舶存在安全隐患。分析了危险事件的一般导致原因,确定危害影响因子对改造船舶的设计和操作有指导作用。基于个人风险,分析了各类事故发生概率,选择了合适的后果模型,考察了长江气象条件,以芜湖某试点改造船进行了定量风险计算,得到了个人风险等值线,确定船体距离河道两边高敏感或特殊高密度场所不应小于20m,指出改用天然气作为船舶燃料后满足安全推荐标准要求。     

Investing in fertilizer–mining companies in times of food scarcity

The primary goal of the paper is to show the validity of investing capital in fertilizer–mining companies, both from a market return perspective for individual or institutional investors, or from a hedging standpoint for insurance companies and other economic actors exposed to inflation risk and high agricultural commodity prices. After providing some elements on the fertilizer market and describing the joint dynamics of corn, wheat and fertilizer prices over the last decade, we analyze an exhaustive sample of listed fertilizer producing companies over the years January 2004–December 2012. We show that their shares generated quite good returns over the whole period and extremely high ones during the years January 2004–December 2007, both in absolute terms and compared to their betas. We also exhibit that these returns display higher sensitivities to major agricultural indexes than to the World Bank Fertilizer Index, making the hedging argument quite compelling.     

大型公园道路网络关键节点脆弱性评价*

为更加科学有效地辨识景区道路网络中的客流关键节点,以节点脆弱性为度量指标,提出1种基于FIM模型的关键节点脆弱性评价方法。以某大型公园为例,首先通过ArcGIS软件将该公园的道路网络信息转换成可编译的文本信息,经过Java枚举可行路径,然后利用嵌入FIM算法的Lingo进行优化,得出网络节点的重要度。最后综合节点容量、流量、吸引度等信息加权得出网络节点的脆弱性。结果表明:该方法能够有效地对道路网络节点进行脆弱性度量并排序,景区可据此制定相应的客流导向方案以提高景区资源的利用率,提高游览的安全性。     

基于G1-VPRS-MIE多层次灰色理论的引水明渠运行风险评价

引水明渠的安全运行风险评价对减少和预防其在输水运行过程中的灾害发生、提高其在运营期间的社会经济效益具有重要的意义。为了对引水明渠在运行期间的风险进行合理赋权和评价,通过科学合理的方法构建了多指标参数的明渠运行风险影响因素指标体系,包括主体结构风险、自然风险、水污染风险、组织管理风险和运行调度风险5个风险因子子系统及20个二级指标在内的评价指标体系;运用G1和VPRS法分别确定各指标的主观权重和客观权重,结合MIE理论优化指标权重;根据明渠工程的运行特点,选取多层次灰色理论计算引水明渠运行风险值,并根据相关规范和安全风险评价实践确定风险评价等级。将该模型应用于引大入秦工程中,结果表明:采用序关系分析法(G1法)和变精度粗糙集理论(VPRS)并结合最小信息熵原理(MIE)的权重确定方法(G1-VPRS-MIE),不但避免了层次分析法过度依赖专家的主观经验、克服了粗糙集理论在边界刻画的局限性,而且弥补了主观和客观方法相结合的不足;对于指标权重的确定更加客观合理,既能满足所得权重的客观性,也能保证评估结果具有一定的解释性,同时能够减少单一权重计算的偏差;多层次灰色评价模型对于引水明渠安全运行风险等级的确定较为有效,并得出其风险等级为中等偏高,与实际情况一致。研究成果为引水明渠工程安全运行提供了一定的参考,同时可为类似气候环境的引水明渠区域规划、设计、施工提供有效的借鉴。