总量控制模型在河流水质预测中的应用

本文根据卫河实际情况,采用总量控制模型对卫河水质中有机污染指标化学耗氧量（ＣＯＤ）和生化需氧量（ＢＯＤ５）进行了预测,取得了与实际监测数据较为接近的结果,其中ＣＯＤ预测精度达８５％,ＢＯＤ５预测精度则达到了９５％以上。该方法简便直观、易于掌握,具有较强的实用性。     

城市生活垃圾产量预测模型

分析了昆明市1996——2001年度每年垃圾产生量的数据，由此提出了可应用于南方城市垃圾产量预测的GM(1，1)SSODMM灰色模型。通过几次迭代后，该模型可对非升凹或升凸的原始数据进行较为准确预测，且精度令人满意。计算结果表明通过三次迭代后该模型对昆明城市生活垃圾进行预测的精度达到一级。     

人工神经网络模型在石油资源预测中的应用

锦270井区大凌河油层是盆地大幅度沉降条件下的产物，以深陷湖环境为主，发育湖底扇浊积岩。准确预测大凌河油层的砂体分布和泥质含量，是勘探目标选择的关键。由于钻井资料少，不能反映储层横向变化。为了准确预测储层的横向变化，综合钻井地质资料和地震勘探资料，并为了反映地震资料的多个参数与储层横向变化间的非线性相关关系，采用人工神经网络模型进行预测，计算了大凌河油层砂层厚度和泥质含量的平面分布。依据计算结果，分析了有利油气区的分布，并给出了几点结论。     

关于规划环境影响评价的思考

环境影响评价法的实施,使中国的环境影响评价制度从建设项目环境影响评价拓展到规划环境影响评价层面,是从微观到宏观、从点到面的环境保护措施,是环境影响评价制度的最新发展.该法设专章对规划的环境影响评价做了明确的规定,要求规划和建设项目一样,必须进行环境影响评价,并规定了违反规划环评的相关法律责任.经过三年多的实施,针对实施过程中暴露出来的问题,文章从法律的角度提出了建议和对策.     

局部湖区两种藻类藻生物量的综合因子预测模型

通过人工模拟系统培养藻类,考察了总氮、总磷、水温、pH、光强、水深等因素与藻生长高峰值之间的关系,提出了一个适用于给水处理厂的短期内局部湖区硅藻和绿藻藻生物量的综合因子预测模型.模型建立了综合因子的概念.在实际水样验证中,当水温为30℃时,模型预测值与实测值之间的平均误差为14.6%;当水温为20℃时,平均误差为19.4%.模型有良好的实用性和可操作性.     

Influence of indoor transport and mixing time scales on the performance of sensor systems for characterizing contaminant releases

Optimizing real-time sensor systems to detect and identify relevant characteristics of an indoor contaminant event is a challenging task. The interpretation of incoming sensor data is confounded by uncertainties in building operation, in the forces driving contaminant transport, and in the physical parameters governing transport. In addition, simulation tools used by the sensor interpretation algorithm introduce modeling uncertainties. This paper explores how the time scales inherent in contaminant transport influence the information that can be extracted from real-time sensor data. In particular, we identify three time scales (within room mixing, room-to-room transport, and removal from the building) and study how they affect the ability of a Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) sensor interpretation algorithm to identify the release location and release mass from a set of experimental data, recorded in a multi-floor building. The research shows that some limitations in the BMC approach do not depend on details of the models or the algorithmic implementation, but rather on the physics of contaminant transport. These inherent constraints have implications for the design of sensor systems.     

Pheromone-based aggregation behaviour of the firebrat, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Thermobia domestica</Emphasis> (Packard) (Thysanura: Lepismatidae)

Summary. We tested the hypothesis that aggregation behaviour of the firebrat, Thermobia domestica (Packard) (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), an inhabitant of enclosed microhabitats, is mediated, at least in part, by a pheromone. Individual insects were released into the central chamber of a 3-chambered olfactometer and test stimuli were placed in lateral chambers. Paper discs previously exposed for 3 days to 10 female, male, or juvenile T. domestica were all preferred by female, male, or juvenile T. domestica over unexposed paper discs, indicating the presence of an aggregation/arrestment pheromone. In additional experiments, frass and scales from female T. domestica, tested singly and in combination, proved not to be the source of the pheromone. Physical contact was required for pheromone recognition, indicating that the pheromone arrests rather than attracts conspecifics. Arrestment by the long-tailed silverfish, Ctenolepisma longicaudata Escherich (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), but not by the common silverfish, Lepisma saccharina L. (Thysanura: Lepismatidae), to T. domestica exposed paper discs suggests closer phylogenetic relatedness between C. longicaudata and T. domestica, than between C. longicaudata and L. saccharina. Whether C. longicaudata or L. saccharina produce an aggregation signal, and whether T. domestica respond to this signal is unknown. Received 10 June 2002; accepted 30 September 2002.     

多时间尺度HSPF模型参数不确定性研究

模型参数的不确定性是水文模型应用研究领域的重点与难点.本研究以密云水库东北部的潮河流域为例,构建了潮河流域HSPF水文模型,并采用1998~2010年逐月地表径流量数据对模型参数进行校准与验证,并结合GLUE算法分析了模型参数的敏感性和不确定性.结果表明:(1)经过参数调整,HSPF模型径流模拟取得了较好的效果,率定期和验证期的纳什系数分别为0.84和0.55;(2)可将影响HSPF模型的参数分为3类,即全局敏感性参数(LZSN、INFILT、IRC和AGWRC)、局部敏感性参数(UZSN)和不敏感参数(DEEPFR、BASETP、AGWEPT、INTFW和CEPSC);(3)不同敏感性参数间存在复杂的相关关系,参数组合(LZSN与INFILT)、(INFILT与UZSN)和(UZSN与AGWRC)间均呈极显著负相关关系;(LZSN与UZSN)和(UZSN与AGWRC)呈极显著正相关;(4)HSPF模型参数存在大量复杂的"异参同效"现象,证实影响模拟结果优劣的是参数组合而非某一参数值;(5)模型不确定性发现,模型预测的不确定性范围与降雨量密切相关,即降雨量越大,模型预报的不确定性就越大,反之亦然;(6)不同时间尺度下HSPF模型的模拟效果总体较好,但是也存在一定差异性,年尺度、季节尺度和月尺度下不确定性范围分别包含了81.80%、78.70%和80.56%的观测值,即年尺度效果略优于月尺度和季节尺度;该研究结果可为HSPF模型在相似区域应用与参数本土化提供科学参考和借鉴.     

Relationship Between Bird Abundances and Landscape Characteristics: The Influence of Scale

Scale is important to consider when investigating effects of the environment on a species. Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data and landscape metrics derived from aerial photographs were evaluated to determine how relationships of bird abundances with landscape variables changed over a continuous range of 16 spatial scales. We analyzed the average number of birds per stop (1985–1994) for five songbird species (family Cardinalidae) for each of 50 stops on 198 BBS transects throughout six states in the Central Plains, USA. Land along each transect was categorized into six cover types, and landscape metrics of fractal dimension (a measure of shape complexity of habitat patches), edge density, patch density, and percent area were calculated, with principal components used to construct composite environmental variables. Associations of bird abundances and landscape variables changed in accordance with small scale changes. Abundances of three species were correlated with edge density and one with component I, which subsumes initial variables of patch density for urban, closed forest, open forest, and open country. Fractal dimension and component II (summarizing amount of closed forest versus open country) were associated with the most species. Correlation patterns of fractal dimension with northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) and painted bunting (Passerina ciris) abundances were similar, with highest correlations at intermediate to small scales, suggesting indirectly that these species thrive in areas where local habitat conditions are most important. Multiscale analysis can provide insight into the spatial scale(s) at which species respond, a topic of intrinsic scientific interest with applied implications for researchers establishing protocols to assess and monitor avian populations.     

Spatial scales and probability based sampling in determining levels of benthic community degradation in the Chesapeake Bay

The extent of degradation of benthic communities of the Chesapeake Bay was determined by applying a previously developed benthic index of biotic integrity at three spatial scales. Allocation of sampling was probability-based allowing areal estimates of degradation with known confidence intervals. The three spatial scales were: (1) the tidal Chesapeake Bay; (2) the Elizabeth River watershed; and (3) two small tidal creeks within the Southern Branch of the Elizabeth River that are part of a sediment contaminant remediation effort. The areas covered varied from 10^–1 to 10⁴ km² and all were sampled in 1999. The Chesapeake Bay was divided into ten strata, the Elizabeth River into five strata and each of the two tidal creeks was a single stratum. The determination of the number and size of strata was based upon consideration of both managerially useful units for restoration and limitations of funding. Within each stratum 25 random locations were sampled for benthic community condition. In 1999 the percent of the benthos with poor benthic community condition for the entire Chesapeake Bay was 47% and varied from 20% at the mouth of the Bay to 72% in the Potomac River. The estimated area of benthos with poor benthic community condition for the Elizabeth River was 64% and varied from 52–92%. Both small tidal creeks had estimates of 76% of poor benthic community condition. These kinds of estimates allow environmental managers to better direct restoration efforts and evaluate progress towards restoration. Patterns of benthic community condition at smaller spatial scales may not be correctly inferred from larger spatial scales. Comparisons of patterns in benthic community condition across spatial scales, and between combinations of strata, must be cautiously interpreted.