谱系聚类法在小区域粮食安全预测中的应用——以昆山市为例

粮食安全对国民经济的可持续发展起着不可替代的基础性作用,小区域由于受政策因素的影响较大,粮食安全相关指标的变化呈一定阶段性,长时间序列的数学规律并不突出,不利于规划工作的展开。论文基于昆山市的研究,提出谱系聚类与数学模型相结合的基本思路,在此基础上推出了聚类结果有效性的量化判定标准并对聚类法运用准则做了深入的探讨。实际数据分析结果表明:昆山的粮食安全相关的社会经济指标变化确实呈明显阶段性;与利用全部时间序列数据建立的模型相比,运用谱系聚类的模型拟合和预测效果都有明显优势;至2015年,昆山市粮食自给率将下降至6%,最小人均耕地面积降低至0.022 hm²。通过进一步的分析、对比及讨论,文章认为,谱系聚类法运用于小区域粮食安全预测,方法可操作性强,结论科学性显著。     

Seven suppositions about energy security in the United States

Changing the patterns of energy use requires investigating how energy consumers - not experts - conceive of energy challenges. This article explores the varying beliefs, attitudes, and views on energy security in the United States among experts and residents. Based primarily on an academic literature review to distill expert views, and a survey distributed to hundreds of residents in the U.S. to capture consumer views, the study begins by explaining its methodology before identifying seven suppositions related to energy security. These suppositions involve security of fuel supply, energy democracy, energy research and development, affordability of energy services, environmental pollution, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. The second section of the study tests these suppositions with a survey distributed to 427 respondents in the United States. Three suppositions are supported, two are unsupported, and two are neither supported nor unsupported. The final section of the study offers implications for U.S. energy policy and scholarship.     

环境安全与可持续发展

本文已经提出了如果将环境安全作为人类安全被实现。那就需要较好的环境治理。环境安全可以被理解为一系列的价值观、原则、政策、技术、体制和程序,由此,社区与社会管理环境和自然资源以透明、负责任的参与和公平的方式克服可持续发展的障碍。可持续发展与环境安全是否相互依存、相互促进还需要进一步论证。环境安全和可持续发展之间的关系也常常解释为实际的产出。社会性学习对于应对有关的不安全环境,并导致不可持续发展的挑战至关重要。社会必须利用信息共享、传播和共同的理解改进决策而发展适应改变的能力。这只有通过发展学习型社会才能成为可能。环境安全和可持续发展是社会性学习的产出,而且所有相关方利用创新方法的环境友好政策,是基于环境安全和环境治理的原则为基础的,大大地推动了生态系统的管理、性别公平、尊重人权、解决冲突、建立社区信任为应对未来的意外或潜在风险和新的挑战需要适应性管理,建立社会和生态系统恢复。应集中努力改进人们的生活质量,不要使用超过环境所能承受的自然资源能力。     

污水处理厂尾水细菌群落结构分析

城市尾水中含有大量的微生物,其中相当一部分为病原菌,其排入自然水体后给附近人群造成健康威胁.本研究采用建立16S rDNA克隆文库和PCR-RLFP技术对尾水的细菌群落结构进行分析,结果表明尾水中有59种细菌分别属于11个纲,其中44种细菌属于Proteobacteria门,约占85%(其中β-Proteobacteria和γ-Proteobacteria纲占绝对优势),7种细菌属于Clostridia纲占7.2%,而Actinobacteria、Bacteroidia、Gloeobacteria、Nitrospira、Planctomycetacia这5个纲的细菌所占数量都低于4%,尾水中的细菌大多来源于污水处理过程,因此各地区应该根据受纳水体的特点和净化能力选择合适的污水处理工艺;59种细菌中Legionella spp.占10%以上,其导致的退伍军人症可能成为尾水排放对附近人群健康的最大威胁,另外尾水中一些细菌能代谢次氯酸盐对氯气有一定抵抗能力,所以在选择消毒措施时应该选用氯气消毒与其他消毒工艺的组合;本研究中粪大肠杆菌、大肠埃希氏菌、沙门氏菌、志贺菌属、霍乱弧菌等致病菌在尾水中均未检出,因此对这些致病菌进行研究需要选择针对性更强的方法.     

Still falling short: protection and partnerships in the Lebanon emergency response

The Israeli–Hezbollah conflict in the summer of 2006, although brief, had a lasting impact on the region and prompted an intense humanitarian response. The conflict raised challenging questions for the United Nations (UN) about how to assist a middle‐income yet extremely vulnerable population in a context where global and local relations are highly politicised. This paper focuses on two key questions that emerged from the humanitarian response. First, how can humanitarian agencies, and particularly the UN, improve the protection of civilians, and was what they did in Lebanon enough? Second, how can humanitarian agencies create partnerships with local actors and still remain true to core humanitarian principles when local actors are fiercely divided along confessional lines and influenced by external actors, and when some, such as Hezbollah, are parties to the conflict? This paper argues that despite the importance of protection and partnerships to the humanitarian response, their role in the UN emergency response still falls short.     

Analysis of patterns and ecological security trend of modern oasis landscapes in Xinjiang, China

Ecological security has become so important that it will affect the national security and social sustainable development. In this paper, a case study on the ecological security indexes of modern oasis landscapes in Beitun Oasis, Xinjiang, was carried out. The spatial neighbouring parameters, such as the contiguous length, measure of area and patch quantity of oasis landscape patches, affected by desert landscape patches were calculated by using GIS-based buffer analysis, the method of calculating ecological security indexes of oasis landscape was developed, and the dynamic changes of patterns and ecological security indexes of the oasis landscapes since recent 30 years were analyzed. The results showed that soil salinization or alkalization and paludification were major factors affecting the ecological security in Beitun Oasis. Therefore, measures should be taken actively to prevent and control secondary salinization and paludification. The ecological security indexes of the oasis landscape in 1972, 1990 and 2005 were 78.91, 82.28 and 83.86, respectively, which showed the degree of security is improving, and the environment was developing harmoniously between human and nature. The methods of evaluating ecological security based on the spatial neighbouring relations between landscape patches can be used to reflect preliminarily the ecological security patterns of landscapes.     

Optimal Reorganization of NASA Earth Science Data for Enhanced Accessibility and Usability for the Hydrology Community

A long‐standing “Digital Divide” in data representation exists between the preferred way of data access by the hydrology community and the common way of data archival by earth science data centers. Typically, in hydrology, earth surface features are expressed as discrete spatial objects (e.g., watersheds), and time‐varying data are contained in associated time series. Data in earth science archives, although stored as discrete values (of satellite swath pixels or geographical grids), represent continuous spatial fields, one file per time step. This Divide has been an obstacle, specifically, between the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. and NASA earth science data systems. In essence, the way data are archived is conceptually orthogonal to the desired method of access. Our recent work has shown an optimal method of bridging the Divide, by enabling operational access to long‐time series (e.g., 36 years of hourly data) of selected NASA datasets. These time series, which we have termed “data rods,” are pre‐generated or generated on‐the‐fly. This optimal solution was arrived at after extensive investigations of various approaches, including one based on “data curtains.” The on‐the‐fly generation of data rods uses “data cubes,” NASA Giovanni, and parallel processing. The optimal reorganization of NASA earth science data has significantly enhanced the access to and use of the data for the hydrology user community.     

不同政策对农户农药施用行为的影响

农户不规范的施药行为是引发农产品质量安全风险最直接的原因,为规范农户的施药行为,政府颁布并实施了多种政策,但大多收效甚微。农户不规范的施药行为主要表现在过量使用高毒农药、施用过程中不按规定操作以及农药残留物的处理问题上,如何针对农户不同的施药行为制定相应的政策,以达到有效规范农户施药行为的效果,这是本文研究的主要目的。文章基于全国986个农户的调查数据,运用有序logistic模型,分别回归了不同政策对农户过量施用农药的行为、不遵守施药间隔期的行为以及在施药过程中不阅读标签说明的行为的影响程度,结果表明:强令禁止高毒农药、对违反农产品安全生产进行处罚以及对收购的农产品进行检测等命令控制政策对农户是否过量施用农药的行为具有较强的规范效应,但对农户在施药过程中是否阅读标签说明的规范效果不佳;农药施用技术培训、农产品安全生产宣传教育等宣传培训的政策能有效规范农户在施药前阅读标签说明,但对农户是否过量施用农药的影响不大;以市场为基础的激励政策对农户过量施用农药、阅读标签说明以及遵守间隔期均有显著的规范效果。由此提出,政府在实施命令控制政策的同时,应加强农产品安全知识的宣传力度,定期为农户提供农药施用技术培训;由于以市场为基础的激励政策能有效弥补命令控制政策的监管漏洞,从而更有效的规范农户的施药行为,因此要建立激励惩罚机制,对使用生物农药、施用有机肥等具有正外部性的投入行为进行补贴,对使用高污染、高毒农药的行为进行征税,充分发挥市场为基础的监管政策的有效性。     

黄土高原能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全时空耦合协调关系分析——以榆阳区为例

黄土高原能源富集区是我国重要的能源基地和粮食主产区,其水资源匮乏使区域水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战。为研究黄土高原能源富集区能源、粮食与水资源之间协调发展状况,本研究以水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全为核心,通过构建水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS模型和耦合协调度模型,分析了典型案例地榆林市及榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全水平及其耦合协调关联特征。结果表明：从水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合协调关系来看,榆林市各区县水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度整体较高且近年来呈现缓慢下降趋势,耦合协调度呈现“北高南低”格局且近年来表现出轻微下降趋势。从榆阳区层面来看,榆阳区水—能源—粮食纽带系统耦合度较高,耦合协调度呈现由中度协调向优质协调发展态势,水资源系统制约水—能源—粮食纽带系统安全发展,能源子系统波动性较强。为协调能源富集区水—能源—粮食纽带系统可持续发展,政府应健全跨部门协调机制,因地制宜、合理规划产业布局,同时构建节约高效的资源管理体系,提升资源使用效率。     

Privatisation and outsourcing in wartime: the humanitarian challenges

The tendency today to privatise many activities hitherto considered the exclusive preserve of the state has given rise to sharp debate. The specific nature of humanitarian emergencies elucidates in particularly stark contrast some of the main challenges connected to the privatisation and outsourcing of essential public services, such as the provision of drinking water and health care. Privatising the realms of defence and security, which are at the very core of state prerogative, raises several legal and humanitarian concerns. This article focuses on the roles and responsibilities of the various parties involved in armed conflicts, especially those of private companies engaged in security, intelligence and interrogation work, and in the provision of water supply and health services. It highlights the need for humanitarian and development actors to grasp better the potential risks and opportunities related to privatisation and outsourcing with a view to supplying effective protection and assistance to communities affected by war.