水质远程监控通讯安全性问题的探讨——利用现有网络条件确保远程监控通讯安全性的解决方案

针对我国总体水质情况不容乐观的现实 ,提出解决办法之一是对排污口实施大规模远程监控 ,而远程通讯的安全性又是最直接、最核心的问题。文章着重阐述了如何解决在现有网络条件下实时运行的网络运行速度和数据的加解密等具体问题。     

Modeling the Effects of Limiting the Number of Visitors on Failure Rates of Seabird Nests

Abstract:  Most attempts to manage disturbance by visitors to nature reserves concentrate on limiting visitor access in some way, which is often unpopular with both visitors and managers. In a few nature reserves the daily numbers of visitors are limited, an action that need not necessarily reduce the total number of visitors. As a test of the assumptions that underlie this management practice, we examined the relationship between daily visitor numbers and daily failure rates of nests in two species of seabirds. Daily failure rates for Black-legged Kittiwakes ( Rissa tridactyla ) were weakly correlated with daily visitor numbers but indicated that capping daily visitor numbers slightly reduced overall breeding success. This was not the case for Common Murres ( Uria aalge ), where failure rate declined seasonally but was not significantly correlated with visitor numbers. For some species, it appears that capping daily visitor numbers may have small conservation costs.     

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

军用计算机电磁信息安全与防护

利用电磁学的方法分析了计算机电磁信息辐射的原理,引入偶极子分析计算了计算机电磁信息辐射场的频谱与场强;研究了计算机电磁信息辐射接收机的接收原理,进一步定量分析了辐射场强与接收机带宽、噪声系数、接收天线定向性和增益之间的数值关系;阐述了计算机电磁信息泄露的方式和途径,概括了基于实际的军队计算机应用中电磁信息安全与防护的主要手段.     

基于多种空间静态指标的土地生态安全评价——以精河县为例

生态安全是区域可持续发展的核心问题,是地区安全和社会稳定的重要组成部分。以精河县为例,综合应用数字高程模型(DEM)、TM遥感数据和各种数据,在地理信息系统(GIS)支持下建立了生态安全指标体系。结果表明,1)精河县生态安全水平呈现明显的空间差异性,整体由中部绿洲向周边逐渐降低。2)从空间分布来说,研究区中部的土地生态安全要优于北部和南部,中部大部分土地处于安全和临界安全状态;南部山地土地生态安全类型分布零散,临界安全区、安全区交叉分布;极不安全和临界安全区集中在艾比湖周围、古尔班通古特沙漠及南部山区;很安全区所占比重较小,集中在绿洲内部。3)1998年和2013年各生态安全等级分布面积由大到小排序为生态安全区、生态临界安全区、生态极不安全区、生态很安全区。研究表明,精河县土地生态状况整体良好,与实际情况相符合。今后应加强土地利用结构优化,减少水土流失与土壤的盐渍化,保证土地生态系统健康稳定。     

基于安全度的机场围界安全评估方法

针对机场围界存在虚警率高、信息分散和难以从全局角度管理等问题,提出基于安全度的机场围界安全评估方法。基于分散环境集中监控思想,利用改进DS证据理论将前端探测设备获取的信息进行融合,再利用模糊集理论获得区段安全度,进而求得防区安全度和全局安全度。基于C#和Map Xtreme开发机场围界监控平台,结果表明,基于安全度的评估方法能够准确反映机场围界安全运行状况。     

中国优势金属供应全球需求的风险评估

随着新一轮科技革命和产业转型的发展,全球金属资源供需格局发生重大调整,美国、欧盟、日本等主要发达国家不断倒逼中国敞开优势金属供应。为保障国家金属资源安全,论文从可依赖性、可持续性、可承受性3个维度建立了一套金属资源供应风险评估体系,对中国优势金属供应全球需求的风险进行评估,结果表明：1）中国优势金属整体供应风险较高,铟、铋等两种金属风险值都在80以上,处于高风险水平;锑、锗、钡、镁、钨、稀土等6种金属风险值都是60~80之间,处于中高风险水平;镓、锶等两种金属处于中风险水平。2）在10种中国优势金属中,钡的可依赖性风险最高,达到81.88,稀土的风险最低,只有42.42。铟的可持续性风险最高,达到81.80;锑的最低,风险值为69.46。铟的可承受性风险也最高,高达100;铋的次之,风险值为89.23;钡的最低,只有33.96。3）随着未来新兴产业的快速发展,中国优势金属的供应风险将更加严峻。     

基于AGA-PP的农村公共安全综合风险评价方法

为了构建一套有效评价农村公共安全风险的指标体系和评价方法,考虑农村环境承载力影响因素对农村公共安全的制约,围绕农村生态承载力、基础设施承载力、社会承载力和人口承载力4个维度,提出能够全面评价农村公共安全风险的指标体系和基于PP（projection pursuit,投影寻踪）模型的风险评价方法.在风险评价方法构建上,采用AGA（accelerated genetic algorithm,加速遗传算法）对PP模型进行改进,实现投影指标函数的快速优化,在此基础上,采用回归分析方法,将时间序列与一维投影值进行拟合,求得一维投影值的预测曲线,通过对一维投影值的预测,利用信息扩散理论将投影值所携带的风险信息扩散至设定的4个风险等级上,用风险熵计算农村环境承载力发展趋势,并借以评价农村公共安全的风险大小.结果表明:基于AGA-PP的评价方法能够最大限度暴露多维指标数据的结构特征.依据最佳投影方向获得的一维投影值与时间序列拟合后,其拟合精度达到0.027 1,较高的拟合精度保证了后续农村环境承载力风险熵值的可信度,这在一定程度上保证了农村公共安全风险评价的可靠性.研究显示,从农村环境承载力的视角评价农村公共安全风险能够很好地反映农村公共安全风险的现实状况和发展趋势.基于AGA-PP的农村公共安全评价方法简单有效,具有评价精度高且与实际吻合度高的特征,能够为公共安全管理部门提供决策依据和方法参考.      

论我国水生态的保护与修复:任务与对策

本文聚焦我国水生态保护与修复工作,结合长期实践,分析当前的形势和任务,指出了当前要着力解决的水生态问题主要是:在大坝上游,河流变湖库,生境变化导致生物物种变化;水库水流流速变缓,水体自净能力降低,导致富营养化及藻类水华。在大坝下游,清水下泄,冲刷下游河道导致局部河道河势变化较大;水库蓄水使坝下游春季水温下降、秋季水温升高,水温变化过程滞后;水库蓄水导致大坝下游的水文过程改变,水的流量、流速、流态发生变化。在河道(航道)整治工程中,裁弯取直,缩短水流在河道中的停留时间,河岸衬砌和硬化,减少水向沿河堤岸的渗透,在大降水和洪水时易造成涝灾和洪灾。在涉湖工程中,阻隔河湖,填湖造地。在明确存在问题和迫切需求的基础上,提出了切实可行的对策建议。当前水生态保护与修复要围绕一条主线,即"人要发展,鱼要生存"的"人鱼线",要采取"调、控、退、通、改、拆"的综合措施,即生态调度,控制水污染,退建还水、退田还湖,河湖连通,对已建涉水工程进行生态化改造,对在保护区、重点风景名胜区、特有鱼类栖息地修建的小型工程要采取坚决措施拆除,恢复原貌。     

Impact of climate change on food security of small islands: The case of Mauritius

This paper studies the implications of high food prices resulting from climate change on food security in small islands, using Mauritius as a case‐study. Climate change may adversely impact prices of agricultural commodities. The study derives and calculates the government costs and the welfare effects of an increase in the world price of rice on consumers in Mauritius. Using an equilibrium displacement model, this study finds that an increase in the price of rice by 35%, as predicted by the literature on climate change and rice prices, will result in an increase of 28.8% in government spending, representing the additional outlays to support the subsidy scheme for food security. Using 2012 as the baseline, the welfare analysis results suggest that consumer surplus for ration rice consumers increases by 626 million Mauritian Rupees (MUR) or US$18 million while consumer surplus decreases by MUR454 million (US$13 million) for basmati rice consumers.