国家资源安全及其系统分析

资源安全是一个国家或地区可以持续、稳定、及时、足量和经济地获取所需自然资源的状态或能力。影响资源安全的因素主要包括结构、质量、数量、空间、价格、技术、制度等。分析了国家资源安全的主体目标导向性、实现过程可调控性、发展演化的长期性、空间层次差异性和系统内外互动性等特性。构建了包括社会、经济、资源、生态环境、政策法律等子系统在内的国家资源安全的系统分析框架。运用PSR模型，进行了国家资源安全系统动力学分析。     

Hunting for Sustainability in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract:  The interaction between land-use change and the sustainability of hunting is poorly understood but is critical for sustaining hunted vertebrate populations and a protein supply for the rural poor. We investigated sustainability of hunting in an Amazonian landscape mosaic, where a small human population had access to large areas of both primary and secondary forest. Harvestable production of mammals and birds was calculated from density estimates. We compared production with offtake from three villages and used catch-per-unit-effort as an independent measure of prey abundance. Most species were hunted unsustainably in primary forest, leading to local depletion of the largest primates and birds. The estimated sustainable supply of wild meat was higher for primary (39 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) than secondary forest (22 kg · km⁻²· yr⁻¹) because four species were absent and three species at low abundance in secondary forests. Production of three disturbance-tolerant mammal species was 3 times higher in secondary than in primary forest, but hunting led to overexploitation of one species. Our data suggest that an average Amazonian smallholder would require ≥3.1 km² of secondary regrowth to ensure a sustainable harvest of forest vertebrates. We conclude that secondary forests can sustainably provide only 2% of the required protein intake of Amazonian smallholders and are unlikely to be sufficient for sustainable hunting in other tropical forest regions.     

Terror-Proofing Chemical Process Industries

The chemical process industries (CPI) handling hazardous chemicals can be rather attractive targets for deliberate adversarial actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. The damage inflicted may include casualties, economic loss and political fallout. There is an urgent need for each facility to have a security management programme. Its essential components are security risk assessment, security countermeasures and emergency response.

Security risk assessment can be carried out qualitatively by threat analysis, vulnerability analysis and developing a Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT). All these are discussed at length. Security countermeasures are the steps taken to strengthen the weak points in a system, either by lessening vulnerabilities or by hardening the facilities. Various security countermeasures are suggested for improving security of CPI. Appropriate emergency response measures that could mitigate the consequences of a successful attack are also discussed in the paper. It is recommended that many of the conventional safety and security measures adopted thus far may have to be modified in light of the enhanced and complex nature of the present security threats.     

中国水资源状况与水资源安全问题分析

根据最新的水资源调查评价结果，分析了中国水资源的现状和特点：总量丰富，但人均占有量低；年内年际分配不匀，旱涝灾害频繁，水资源供需矛盾突出；地区分布不均，水土资源不相匹配；水资源利用率低，污染严重。在此基础上，分析了我国水资源安全目前存在的主要问题：水资源时空分布不均严重阻碍社会经济发展；水资源供需矛盾严重，水资源利用效率低下；水质危机导致水资源危机，生态环境恶化严重；水资源管理缺乏科学体制。认为21世纪中国的水资源矛盾将进一步加剧，我国必须进行大规模的改革和强有力的措施，包括节约用水，建立节水型工业，提高用水效率，加强水污染防治，引入市场机制，加强科技创新，树立可持续发展的思想，实行水资源的统一科学管理，维护我国的水资源安全，以缓解我国水资源的供需矛盾，实现经济和社会的可持续发展。     

Rural households’ livelihoods diversification through termite utilization in depressed region of Zimbabwe

This study sought to examine the utility of termites to rural households in depressed regions of Bikita, Zimbabwe. Colonialism and its spread of European culture had viewed entomophagy with contempt resulting in reduced utilization and consumption of termites in most colonies. In our quest to understand how people in depressed regions utilized termites, both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were employed. Questionnaires and in-depth interviews were used to gather data during field work. Purposive and snowball sampling techniques were used in recruiting respondents. Excel and content analysis were used in data presentation and analysis. Results revealed that dampwood and drywood termites are climatic indicators for the rural communal farmers, a low-cost technology in weather forecasting. Subterrain and mold builders provide manure, relish, and are medicinal in nature. They are traded for income generation, and as for the poor, harvesting, processing, storage, and marketing is cost effective. Though considered nostalgic foods, most respondents highlighted that selling termites complimented other off-farm livelihood activities. Termite consumption and utilization provide a sustainable way for livelihood diversification in depressed regions and has partly addressed problems of food insecurity.     

基于系统动力学的辽宁省生态安全预警研究

基于P—S—R框架建立辽宁省城市生态安全预警评价指标体系,在此基础上,利用系统动力学方法构建辽宁省城市“资源-人口-经济-社会-环境”复合系统的生态安全预警模型,通过VENSIM仿真2010年至2020年的辽宁省城市生态安全预警指标趋势值,运用综合评价法对辽宁省14个城市进行生态安全预警评价。结果表明,未来10年生态安全预警评价结果分为3类：生态安全区、生态安全持续危险区和生态退化区。生态持续危险区和生态退化区属于生态安全预警区域,主要集中在辽宁省西北部。从辽宁省生态安全动态变化看,未来生态安全形势比较严峻。仿真结果表明基于系统动力学的生态安全预警结果可为辽宁省城市发展与建设提供一定的理论依据。     

乡村旅游地生态系统安全评估研究——以岷江上游干温河谷区为例

以岷江上游干温河谷乡村旅游生态系统为研究对象,根据“压力一状态一响应”模型原理,运用构建的乡村旅游生态系统安全评估体系,在确定系统不安全指数和评价指标权重的基础上,评价乡村旅游生态系统的不安全度。研究表明,在羌族乡村旅游发展过程中,生态系统质量、生物物种质量、森林覆盖率等指标成为岷江上游干温河谷系统安全的重要限制因素,而生态建设能力和环境保护意识成为生态安全响应能力的主要限制因素。研究不仅为岷江干温河谷生态环境的人文治理途径提供借鉴,也将为震后羌族区域经济恢复与持续发展提供决策指导。     

基于DPSIR模型的海岛生态安全综合评价

结合海岛生态系统的特点,根据海岛生态安全的概念,基于DPSIR模型建立了反映海岛生态系统自身完整性、健康性、对外服务性和不受威胁的海岛生态安全评价框架体系。采用熵权法确定指标权重并用纵横比较的方式综合分析长海县海岛生态安全。主要的特点有：一是将海岛生态安全内涵纳入DPSIR框架建立评价指标体系,保证了适用性和权威性;二是探索了静动结合的综合评价方法,反映了海岛生态安全的稳定性和发展性;三是综合考虑自然-经济-社会复合生态系统,分析了海岛生态安全的调控性和人类干扰性。按照2006--2010五年样本数据识别出长海县生态安全的关键因素。     

山地城市水安全问题的思考

中国属多山地的国家,山地城市依山而建,因其特殊的地理位置、地质条件、地形地貌、气候水文等环境要素,构成了区别于平原城市的重要特征。水安全是全球关注的问题,通过分析我国山地城市水安全问题及影响因素,发现水安全问题日趋严峻,为了构建可持续发展的"人"、"山地"和"水"的和谐关系,需要尽快开展山地城市水安全的研究。     

预应力混凝土箱梁蒸汽养护安全与节能探讨

针对高速铁路施工中普遍应用的预应力混凝土箱梁蒸汽养护技术,从养护制品质量、施工人员、养护设备三方面进行了安全探讨,并对蒸养系统的节能运行进行了系统分析,提出了节能降耗新措施.