浙江省耕地变化与粮食安全的分析及预测

运用回归分析方法、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及Excel软件,在分析浙江省改革开放以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点,运用预测理论对未来15年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示：1978～2004年,浙江省耕地面积、粮食产量呈下降趋势,人口数量逐年增加,从而造成最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数呈现增大趋势。这表明此期粮食供需差距越来越大。在未来15年,人口数量进一步增加,耕地和人均耕地面积降低明显,最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数却呈降低趋势,这依赖于耕地生产力水平的提高,但耕地仍严重超载,粮食安全问题仍将十分突出,形势比较严峻。据此提出降低耕地压力、保证粮食生产安全、促进可持续发展的对策。     

境外项目中方雇员(含华人)遭袭案例分析与规避

美国石油学会和美国石油炼制者协会提出了石油石化行业社会安全脆弱性评估方法,其中可能性的参考点主要包袭击动机、袭击方式、袭击时间、袭击地点和遭袭者身份5个要素,该风险评估模式仅对可能性的1～5级进行了简要的定性描述.对2001年1月至2014年4月间新闻媒体公开报道的122起境外中方人员(含华人)遭袭的事故案例进行了定量分析(袭击动机:抢劫钱财39.34％、地缘政治19.67％、宗教或文化冲突18.03％、社区诉求13.12％及其他动机9.84％.袭击方式:持枪袭击32.79％、实施暴力20.49％、绑架劫持19.67％、炸弹袭击12.30％及其他方式14.75％.袭击时间:凌晨18.03％、上午12.30％、中午4.10％、下午8.20％、夜间27.05％及不明时间30.32％.遭袭地点:人群集聚区24.59％、华人商业区22.15％、工地22.15％、路途13.13％、豪华酒店3.28％、郊区2.47％及其他地区12.23％.遭袭者身份:中方雇员41.80％、华人店主/个体35.24％、中国留学生8.20％、中方游客5.74％及其他人员9.02％),将此统计结果的百分比与可能性构成要素各项最高分级数值5相乘,得出以122起遭袭案例为样本的风险评估可能性的更为准确的数值.还结合该122起事故案例的统计分析结果详细介绍了中国石油天然气集团公司社会安全管理体系的关键性要素.     

区域生态安全的组合权重评价模型

为了更准确合理地确定区域生态安全评价的指标权重,利用层次分析法求得主观权重,利用变异系数法求得客观权重,再用最小相对信息熵原理将它们合并为组合权重.结合“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)”模型框架,建立了指标体系和评价模型,分别计算3种权重下的生态安全指数.结果表明,使用组合权重的计算结果最符合实际状况.2010年兰州新区的生态安全综合指数为0.615 9,2015年为0.519 4,2020年为0.484 1,分别处于较安全、临界安全和临界安全状态.这表明当地生态安全状况有恶化趋势,新区应大力发展循环经济,推进清洁生产,加大环境污染防治力度,从而保障生态安全,促进经济社会可持续发展.     

Modeling Megacity Drinking Water Security under a DSS Framework in a Tidal River at the North Pearl River Delta,China

A modeling study was undertaken under a decision support system (DSS) for drinking water security in the Foshan section of the Beijiang River, a typical tidal river in the North Pearl River Delta. The DSS included a database layer, application support layer, and an application layer. As an integral part of the DSS application support layer, an integrated modeling system was developed to simulate hydrodynamics. The balance of dissolved oxygen and toxicants was based on an environmental fluid dynamics code and a water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) modeling framework. Model calibration and validation was undertaken using monitoring data in normal hydrological conditions. Four scenarios for the environmental management of water, including current water temp‐spatial feature analysis, control of pollution sources, and emergency response, were designed and analyzed in the DSS. The results indicated that the tide downstream has a distinct influence on hydrodynamics and pollutant diffusion, and the DSS could be used to design effective schemes to reduce pollutant discharges and provide emergency responses for ensuring drinking water security.     

村镇公共安全评价体系研究——以河北省沧州市南大港一分区为例

将环境承载力评价理论引入到农村公共安全研究中,根据农村公共安全环境承载力指标体系的构建原则,选取一级指标5个,二级指标10个,基于鱼骨图分析法建立村镇公共安全体系。结合统计软件SPSS,采用主成分分析法(PCA),对村镇公共安全体系进行排序,找出影响村镇公共安全水平的重要因子,为改善村庄公共安全风险提供了重要参考价值。结果表明:一分区各村公共安全承载能力差异较大,且基础设施承载因子和土地承载因子是影响村庄公共安全承载能力最重要因子,加大公共安全基础设施的投入、有效利用闲置土地,可以较好地提高村镇公共安全承载能力。     

Reversing food desertification: examining urban farming in Louisville,Chicago and Detroit

The Urban Farming Movement is relatively young in Louisville, Kentucky but it seems to be off to a good start. Being in its earliest stages, assessments of this effort must be made cautiously, even tentatively. Examining a movement that is in progress requires a study of the state's land use and segregation policies, both of which have been dynamic in Kentucky. Further, this study is also relevant as there is a growing convergence of national and regional attitudes towards American obesity, while there are competing notions of food preference and food choice. All of which are influenced by racial politics, and there is a deep concern regarding food security. Considering all of these, it is necessary to examine the Government's efforts to address obesity/food imbalance in a variety of settings, especially where urban farming is expanding, such as Chicago and Detroit. In New York, roof-top gardens dot the landscape and the urban farm movement is largely a “success”. So, city leaders have chosen to address another health issue – trans fat. Rather than joining the food choice/preference debate by banning fast-food restaurants, city leaders have chosen to enact a trans-fat ban. Unpopular at first, other cities and states have followed, and the Federal Government will mandate a trans-fat ban this year. In Louisville, Chicago and Detroit, where the trans-fat bans did not succeed, the urban farm movement may be the primary means of addressing malnutrition, in the form of obesity.     

Land take and food security: assessment of land take on the agricultural production in Europe

Soil is a multifunctional, non-renewable natural resource for Europe as clearly expressed in the European Union (EU) Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection (COM (2006)231). Soil carries out multiple functions, including the support of food production. Urban development and its associated land take poses a major threat to soil and could have significant effects on agricultural production. This paper aims to evaluate the potential productivity losses in European agriculture due to land-take processes between 1990 and 2006. Agricultural land take was calculated using CORINE Land Cover maps of 1990, 2000 and 2006. For 21 of the 27 EU member states, agricultural land take was computed to be 752,973 ha for 1990–2000 and 436,095 ha for 2000–2006, representing 70.8% and 53.5%, respectively, of the total EU land take for these periods. The impact of this land take on the production capabilities of the agricultural sector for the period 1990–2006 for 19 of the 21 states was estimated to be equivalent to a loss of more than six million tonnes of wheat. The paper demonstrates that Europe's intense urbanisation has a direct impact on its capability to produce food.     

在役历史保护建筑构件时变安全性分析

古旧建筑经多年使用之后,由于各种原因造成材料劣化、结构损伤等,在抗震性能和结构安全性方面存在一定的隐患。近年来,我国建筑结构检测工作广泛开展,如何更充分地利用这些珍贵的检测成果是一个值得思考的课题。本文针对建于20世纪40年代末的某历史保护建筑物,根据前后相隔10年的2次结构检测鉴定结果,分析了建筑物服役过程中,其材料、构件性能、结构安全性等方面的变化规律,以及造成构件损坏的主要原因。鉴定结果认为,该建筑物整体性依然良好,能满足历史建筑物保护和结构承载能力的要求。同时,结合该建筑物现状,分析了其结构构件时变安全性,为采取合理的加固措施提供了依据。     

生态风险与生态安全的评价方法及前景

各种生态环境问题的严重后果引起了人们对环境与生态的重视,并催生了生态风险与生态安全评价.为了更好地进行这两方面的评价,首先分别综述生态风险和生态安全评价的发展进程,突出主要研究方法的介绍,由此总结生态风险评价与生态安全评价的关系以及生态风险与生态安全评价的发展趋势.生态风险评价主要有健康危险度法、环评指数法、景观生态法、空间统计或地统计法、相对风险模型等方法;生态安全评价主要有综合指数法、景观生态法、生态承载力和生态足迹方法、突变级数等方法.生态风险与生态安全评价是从相反的角度研究生态系统的状况和潜在威胁,生态风险评价偏重细节分析,生态安全评价偏重整体分析.空间和时间尺度的扩大、评价方法的改进、评价标准的制定和评价的可信性检验都是生态风险评价与生态安全评价的发展趋势.     

浅析地质灾害现状与治理工程施工安全对策

简述地质灾害现状及防治的重要性,总结分析了地质灾害治理工程施工中安全管理所采取的措施及对策。