贵广I回工程HOM3系统软件缺陷改进方法

通过分析贵广I回工程HOM3光测量系统在极控和直流滤波器保护系统中的软件,找到了软件在处理激光管告警信号和通讯故障信息的差异和缺陷,并提出了修改方法。修改方法经过实时数字仿真系统(RTDS)仿真验证,能够区分激光管告警和通讯故障两种不同的顺序事件记录(SER)信息,并准确定位发生通讯故障的通道,对提高工程安全稳定运行具有重要意义。     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

Estimated Injury Risk for Specific Injuries and Body Regions in Frontal Motor Vehicle Crashes

Objective: Injury risk curves estimate motor vehicle crash (MVC) occupant injury risk from vehicle, crash, and/or occupant factors. Many vehicles are equipped with event data recorders (EDRs) that collect data including the crash speed and restraint status during a MVC. This study's goal was to use regulation-required data elements for EDRs to compute occupant injury risk for (1) specific injuries and (2) specific body regions in frontal MVCs from weighted NASS-CDS data.

Methods: Logistic regression analysis of NASS-CDS single-impact frontal MVCs involving front seat occupants with frontal airbag deployment was used to produce 23 risk curves for specific injuries and 17 risk curves for Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ to 5+ body region injuries. Risk curves were produced for the following body regions: head and thorax (AIS 2+, 3+, 4+, 5+), face (AIS 2+), abdomen, spine, upper extremity, and lower extremity (AIS 2+, 3+). Injury risk with 95% confidence intervals was estimated for 15–105 km/h longitudinal delta-Vs and belt status was adjusted for as a covariate.

Results: Overall, belted occupants had lower estimated risks compared to unbelted occupants and the risk of injury increased as longitudinal delta-V increased. Belt status was a significant predictor for 13 specific injuries and all body region injuries with the exception of AIS 2+ and 3+ spine injuries. Specific injuries and body region injuries that occurred more frequently in NASS-CDS also tended to carry higher risks when evaluated at a 56 km/h longitudinal delta-V. In the belted population, injury risks that ranked in the top 33% included 4 upper extremity fractures (ulna, radius, clavicle, carpus/metacarpus), 2 lower extremity fractures (fibula, metatarsal/tarsal), and a knee sprain (2.4–4.6% risk). Unbelted injury risks ranked in the top 33% included 4 lower extremity fractures (femur, fibula, metatarsal/tarsal, patella), 2 head injuries with less than one hour or unspecified prior unconsciousness, and a lung contusion (4.6–9.9% risk). The 6 body region curves with the highest risks were for AIS 2+ lower extremity, upper extremity, thorax, and head injury and AIS 3+ lower extremity and thorax injury (15.9–43.8% risk).

Conclusions: These injury risk curves can be implemented into advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) algorithms that utilize vehicle EDR measurements to predict occupant injury immediately following a MVC. Through integration with AACN, these injury risk curves can provide emergency medical services (EMS) and other patient care providers with information on suspected occupant injuries to improve injury detection and patient triage.     

基于可靠性理论的事件树分析方法研究

事件树分析过程中事件树的编制和分析方法缺乏系统性,导致实际运用中事件树的编制缺乏可操作性。从目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定、定量分析中基本数据的来源和确定方法等三个问题进行了系统研究,并以可靠性的相关理论为基础,提出"从控制和影响初始事件发展演化的角度,调查分析对初始事件做出响应的安全功能,按系统工作原理对目标系统进行重构,构建目标系统的功能结构图,画出系统的可靠性框图"入手,对"传统的事件树绘制程序"进行修正,解决了事件树分析过程中目标系统的选择、环节事件逻辑关系的确定以及定量分析基本数据的确定方法等问题。修正后的方案对实现事件树的正确编制和系统分析逻辑更清晰,操作指导性更强。     

基于余震序列分布信息的地震极灾区快速判断方法研究

利用震级加权标准差椭圆法研究了基于震后短期内(24 h)余震序列判定地震极灾区的方法,研究结果表明:1利用该方法判断宏观震中是一种比较可行的方法,不同震源破裂方式的震例利用该方法判断宏观震中的精度不同,倾滑-近倾滑型破裂方式的震例利用余震序列判定宏观震中的精度最高;2整体上看,利用该方法判断极灾区长轴方向的准确性低于利用距震中最近活动断裂判断的准确性,但对于倾滑-近倾滑型破裂方式的震例,利用该方法的准确性高于利用断层数据判定的准确性。     

静态应力降与动态应力降比值方法在东北地区震后趋势判定中的应用

计算静态应力降与动态应力降之比Y值,根据Y值的大小初步判定地震类型,是震后趋势判定的一种新方法,对震后趋势快速判定有一定意义。通过计算我省历年有影响地震的Y值,发现2005年以来黑龙江省及其周边地区中强地震静态应力降与动态应力降之比(Y值)在0.3~0.6之间,总体来说Y值较大,其地震类型以孤立型地震为主,吉林省前郭县地震Y值为0.37,与我省其他中强地震相比,Y值相对较低,初步判定为震群型地震。     

应急修复耦合资源回收的实践-以一起化工企业突发环境事件为例

通过东莞市一起铜氨蚀刻液泄漏引致突发环境事件的应急处理过程,介绍了污染控制和应急修复技术的应用情况,通过将高浓含氨污水蒸发制取NH4Cl产品,以及将污水处理至优于《地表水环境质量标准》（GB3838-2002）之Ⅰ类水质要求,作为我国首例应急修复耦合资源回收制取化工产品的成功案例,为化工类企业突发环境事件的应急处理提供决策参考.     

Heterogeneity in fetal akinesia deformation sequence (FADS): autopsy confirmation in three 20–21-week fetuses

Fetal akinesia deformation sequence (FADS) is a rare condition characterized by intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), congenital limb contractures, pulmonary hypoplasia, hydramnios and craniofacial abnormalities. The present report comprises an autopsy study of three fetuses to illustrate the variable clinical manifestations and neuropathological findings. Fetus 1 had arthrogryposis and no movement on fetal ultrasound examination. Aborted at 21 weeks, the fetus showed micrognathia, bilateral joint contracture with pterygia at the elbow and axilla. Growth retardation and pulmonary hypoplasia were not major features. Neuropathologic examination revealed anterior horn cell loss and lateral corticospinal tract degeneration in spinal cord, with marked muscular atrophy. Fetus 2, 20 weeks' gestation, had fetal akinesia, nuchal thickening, left pleural effusion, and Dandy-Walker malformation on ultrasound examination. Autopsy showed low-set ears, ocular hypertelorism, cleft palate, flexion contractures with pterygia over axilla, elbow and groin, pulmonary hypoplasia, Dandy-Walker malformation, unremarkable spinal cord and skeletal muscle. Fetus 3, 21 weeks' gestation, was aborted for fetal akinesia, neck and limb webbing and severe arthrogryposis. At autopsy, similar facial abnormalities, contracture and pterygia in neck and multiple major joints were found. Borderline pulmonary hypoplasia and severe lumbar scoliosis were also present. The brain, spinal cord and muscle were unremarkable. In these three fetuses, the prenatal ultrasound and autopsy findings were characteristic of FADS. Neurogenic spinal muscular atrophy was the basis of fetal akinesia in Case 1. Dandy-Walker malformation was present in Case 2, but the pathogenetic mechanism of fetal akinesia was not clear as spinal cord and muscle histology appeared normal. The etiology of akinesia was undetermined in Case 3; no extrinsic or intrinsic cause was identified. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population dynamics of the bank vole as studied using sequence functions

Sequence functions were used to construct a simulation model of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole in Karelia. The mechanisms of population reproduction control affect the population size if it is greater than 1 and 4 ind./100 trap-days in spring and autumn, respectively.     

耐汞好氧反硝化菌的鉴定及适应汞离子的特性研究

从实验室保存的高效好氧反硝化菌种中筛选得到一株抗汞细菌并命名为X1,经生理生化特性和16SrRNA基因序列分析,初步鉴定该菌为恶臭假单胞菌(Pseudomonasputida).对菌株X1进行Hg2适应特性研究,结果表明,对于Hg2浓度为2、67++4、、mg·L-1的实验组,菌体分别需要被延滞12、284018、、h后进入对数期,而8mg·L-1实验组则不能进入对数期;在好氧反硝化过程中,Hg2浓度在7mg·L+-1范围内各实验组的好氧反硝化过程中NO3-N浓度变化速率、NO2-N累积峰值、pH特征点出现时刻随着Hg2浓度的增大而增大(延迟),而Hg2浓度呈现出同硝氮一致的下降趋势,并且在对数期内除汞率能达到100%.研究表明,菌株X1对Hg2最大适宜耐受浓度为7mg·L+-1,相应适应时间约为40h.在最大耐受浓度范围内,菌株X1的生长和好氧反硝化过程呈现出"被抑制-适应-受刺激"的变化规律,其中,被抑制的时间和受刺激的程度都随着Hg2浓度的增大而增大,主要表现为延滞期的延长和对数期的缩短.此外,在对数期,菌株X1的生长速率、达到稳定期的浓度和好+氧反硝化速率也都随着Hg2浓度的增大而增大,且大于无Hg2菌组.++