LONG-TERM RECONSTRUCTION OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES FOR LAKE ATHABASCA BY ANALYSIS OF TREE RINGS1

ABSTRACT: The fact that dendrochronology can be a useful tool in water resources management is demonstrated by a study of past changes in lake levels. The study was necessitated by the recent (1967) closure of the gates on the W.A.C. Bennett Dam on the Peace River in British Columbia, causing a drop in water levels of Lake Athabasca, the lake levels control water level undulations in a series of smaller lakes which lie in the 1.5 million acre delta area along its western edge in Alberta. The W.A.C. Bennett Dam has by its regulation of the Peace River affected the river's historical role of creating a hydraulic dam during early summer flood stages thereby preventing outflow from Lake Athabasca and inducing annual inundation of the delta area. Because the ecololgy of the lake and adjacent delta region has depended on the now attenuated snow-melt flooding from the Upper Peace River Basin, it became necessary to consider some means of artificially inducing this annual inundation. It was not known, however, what the long-term water level changes were around which the present ecology had developed. Continuous historical lake level records exist only for the period 1935–1967. Was this period one of anomalously high or low water levels? Relatively old white spruce trees growing along natural levees of the channels in the delta region were found to contain tree-ring records that reflected the water stages in the channels. Because the water levels in the channels could be correlated with lake levels, it was possible to use the three-ring series to extend the known 33-year record of lake level changes to 158 years. By using canonical analysis and 10-day mean lake levels for three different subperiods in the 33-year period of calibration, along with tree-ring series from appropriately chosen stands of white spruce, reconstructions were made of the long-term record for late May, early July, and late September. The reconstructed record shows that the May 21–30 lake levels have been three times as variable in the past as in the period of historical record (1935–1967), the July 11–20 levels twice as variable, and the September 21–30 levels 10% less variable. However, the mean water level for each of the three subperiods for the long-term record is very close to the means for the period of historical record. The reconstructed record shows that, before the dam gates were closed, there was only one three-year period (1866–1868) in which the lake levels were as low as they have been since closure of the gates (that is, 1967–1970). (Levels were nearly as low, however, during the period 1942–1945.     

Investigating the impacts of crash prediction models on quantifying safety effectiveness of Adaptive Signal Control Systems

Introduction: Adaptive Signal Control System (ASCS) can improve both operational and safety benefits at signalized corridors. Methods: This paper develops a series of models accounting for model forms and possible predictors and implements these models in Empirical Bayes (EB) and Fully Bayesian (FB) frameworks for ASCS safety evaluation studies. Different models are validated in terms of the ability to reduce the potential bias and variance of prediction and improve the safety effectiveness estimation accuracy using real-world crash data from non-ASCS sites. This paper then develops the safety effectiveness of ASCS at six different corridors with a total of 65 signalized intersections with the same type of ASCS, in South Carolina. Results: Validation results show that the FB model that accounts for traffic volume, roadway geometric features, year factor, and spatial effects shows the best performance among all models. The study findings reveal that ASCS reduces crash frequencies in the total crash, fatal and injury crash, and angle crash for most of the intersections. The safety effectiveness of ASCS varies with different intersection features (i.e., AADT at major streets, number of legs at an intersection, the number of through lanes on major streets, the number of access points on minor streets, and the speed limit at major streets). Conclusions: ASCS is associated with crash reductions, and its safety effects vary with different intersection features. Practical Applications: The findings of this research encourage more ASCS deployments and provide insights into selecting ASCS deployment sites for reducing crashes considering the variation of the safety effectiveness of ASCS.     

基于AHP的工业企业震后恢复重建优先等级评价

地震灾害一直是人类社会所面临的重大自然灾害之一,在灾害发生之后,为了能够让灾区较短时间内恢复正常的生产生活和社会运行,高效率的恢复重建机制不可或缺.在所有的震后恢复重建项目中,灾区原有的工业企业的恢复重建是一大重点,这些工业企业在灾前往往是当地政府税收的主要来源,也为当地人口提供了大量的就业岗位.然而,能够投入到灾区用...     

Identification and expression of the COI1 gene family in Camellia sinensis and its expression in oolong tea processing北大核心CSCD

茉莉酸受体蛋白COI1(coronatine insensitive 1)是茉莉酸信号转导途径的重要组成部分,为鉴定分析茶树茉莉酸受体COI1基因家族,预测其潜在的分子功能,了解茉莉酸受体COI1基因在乌龙茶加工中应答胁迫的分子机制,利用生物信息学方法对茶树茉莉酸受体COI1进行家族成员鉴定,氨基酸序列、结构域、基因结构、进化分析以及启动子顺式元件分析,结合实时荧光定量分析CsCOI1基因在乌龙茶加工中的表达.结果显示,茶树茉莉酸受体CsCOI1家族有两个成员,均含有F-box和富亮氨酸重复序列(LRRs)两个结构域;单子叶、双子叶的COI1蛋白各聚一支,且与蜜柑进化关系较近;茶树COI1基因家族两个成员均含有3个内含子,启动子顺势元件主要有胁迫响应元件、激素响应元件以及光响应元件;转录组数据说明茶树CsCOI1基因具有较强的组织表达差异性.实时荧光定量分析表明,CsCOI1a基因在室内萎凋后表达显著上调,且15 min、30 min日光萎凋后CsCOI1b基因的表达水平显著上调,同时茉莉酸含量发生显著变化.本研究推测CsCOI1基因可能通过茉莉酸信号转导途径参与乌龙茶加工中萎凋的胁迫响应过程,该结果可为乌龙茶加工品质调控奠定基础.(图8表2参30)     

两种应用场景下NDVI时间序列数据拟合方法研究

植被覆盖指数（NDVI）时间序列数据集包含地表植被的长势、生长周期、时空变化等信息,其拟合重建结果可应用于物候信息提取、生态质量评价、人类活动扰动识别、覆被变化动态监测等方面。基于TIMESAT软件,选取物候参数提取和扰动识别2个应用场景,结合地面站点数据和Jacknife法模拟数据,对比分析非对称高斯函数拟合法（AG法）、双Logistic函数拟合法（D-L法）和Savitzky-Golay滤波法（S-G法）3种方法的拟合效果。结果表明：（1）3种方法拟合重建后提取的生长开始时间（SOS）、生长结束时间（EOS）、生长周期（LOS）等物候参数接近站点数据,AG法和D-L法保持NDVI时序曲线整体变化特征的能力较强,提取的SOS和EOS更接近站点数据;（2）人类活动扰动识别应用场景中,S-G法在滤波时能够最大限度地保留时序曲线细节变化,恢复速率相关系数达到0.618,回归估计标准差低于AG法和D-L法,因此识别精度最优。     

柠檬酸废水处理改造工程实例

采用多级内循环厌氧反应器MIC/上升式厌氧反应器UASB串联工艺处理柠檬酸生产排放的高浓度有机废水,其中厌氧处理段的COD去除率＞94％,整体COD去除率可达98.3％左右.最终排放口出水COD平均值为190 mg/L,pH值为6～9,达到柠檬酸行业废水排放标准.     

Filyos River Streamflow Reconstruction from Tree‐Ring Chronologies with Nonparametric Approaches

The article presents nonparametric methods based on K nearest neighbors (KNNs), modified KNNs, and local polynomial techniques to reconstruct streamflow ensembles from tree‐ring data in Filyos River region (Turkey). Three methods were tested using cross‐validation for the overlap period, 1963‐1997 for which the tree‐ring and streamflow data are available. It was found that for the study where the length of the overlap period was limited, a nonparametric method based on a local polynomial technique provides simulations that have a slightly better solution than the other methods. After verification using standard statistical techniques, these methods were utilized to develop streamflow reconstructions from tree‐ring data for the paleo‐hydrologic period (1657‐1963). These reconstructions of seasonal low and high flows were discussed with the obtained flood duration curve. They were also compared with the historical archives and other tree‐ring reconstructions data available in the same river. Overall, the utility and limitations of these methods and the resulting streamflow simulations were discussed to assess the long‐term discharge behavior of Filyos River and to evaluate water supply reliability.     

某工业园集中式印染污水处理厂工艺改造工程

通过对顺德区某工业园集中式工业污水处理厂印染废水处理工艺存在的问题进行分析和研究,根据印染行业环保要求和技术政策,对其原有的牛仔服洗水废水处理工艺进行技术改造。改造后采用分类进水方式,原有工艺"混凝沉淀+生物接触氧化"处理洗漂废水,"混凝沉淀+水解酸化+混凝沉淀+生物接触氧化"新工艺处理工业园区大量退浆、印花及丝光等高浓度高难度印染废水,处理量由原来10 000 m3/d提高到32 000 m3/d,出水各项水质指标达DB 44/26—2001广东省地方标准《水污染物排放限值》第二时段中的一级排放标准,取得了良好的环境、社会和经济效益。     

Build back better: implementation in Victorian bushfire reconstruction

The ‘build back better’ (BBB) concept signals an opportunity to decrease the vulnerability of communities to future disasters during post‐disaster reconstruction and recovery. The 2009 Victorian bushfires in Australia serve as a case study for this assessment of the application of core BBB principles and their outcomes. The results show that several BBB measures were successfully implemented in Victoria and are relevant for any post‐disaster reconstruction effort. The BBB initiatives taken in Victoria include: land‐use planning determined by hazard risk‐based zoning; enforcement of structural design improvements; facilitated permit procedures; regular consultations with stakeholders; and programmes conducted for social and economic recovery. Lessons from the Victorian recovery urge the avoidance of construction in high‐risk zones; fairness and representativeness in community consultations; adequate support for economic recovery; the advance establishment of recovery frameworks; and empowerment of local councils.     

基于仿真的交通事故机动车驾驶人识别方法

为正确识别交通事故中的机动车驾驶人,借助仿真软件,提出一种基于仿真的机动车驾驶人识别方法。先根据事故现场痕迹,借助Pc-Crash软件仿真车辆的运动轨迹;再根据Pc-Crash仿真所得速度、位置等信息,借助Madymo软件仿真乘员的运动;然后通过分析车辆运动轨迹、人体损伤和人体最终停止位置等仿真结果确定驾驶人。最后用该方法识别了一例2车侧面碰撞事故中的驾驶人,所得结果与警方调查结果一致。借助仿真方法并充分利用事故现场痕迹,能够识别机动车驾驶人。