长江三角洲城市群工业污染时空演化及其驱动因素

基于2003~2015年长江三角洲（以下简称长三角）城市群26个城市工业废水和工业SO₂排放数据,采用标准差椭圆、地理集中指数、工业环境绩效指数、空间形态差异指数等方法从宏观和微观视角对长三角城市群工业污染时空演化进行分析,同时采用对数平均迪氏分解（LMDI）模型对其工业污染排放主要驱动因素进行分解.研究发现：2003~2015年工业废水和工业SO₂排放量分别下降了16.97%和28.79%,但占全国比重仍然较高,尤其是工业废水对生态环境胁迫较大.2种工业污染空间形态均呈现出北（偏西）-南（偏东）的空间分布形态,而2种工业污染重心移动轨迹并不一致,工业废水重心总体上朝向东（偏南）方向迁移了12.85km,而工业SO₂重心总体上朝向西（偏北）方向迁移了26.89km.此外,2种工业污染主要集中分布于长江沿岸城市且污染集中度指数由高到低大致呈半圈层状向周围递减.工业发展与工业污染空间形态演变具有一致性,工业废水重心和工业SO₂重心与工业发展重心距离均在逐渐缩小,而2种工业污染-环境绩效空间分布格局并不完全一致.驱动因素方面,环境规制引起的技术改善效应是工业污染排放量减少的主要原因,而由环境规制引起的产业结构效应对工业污染排放量的影响则取决于区域发展政策,经济发展效应是工业污染排放量增加的主要原因,人口规模效应对工业污染排放量的影响较小.     

1980—2015年京津冀地区雁鸭类潜在栖息地连接度变化及驱动因素

近几十年来,京津冀地区湿地面积萎缩,生态功能下降,严重影响了湿地水鸟的栖息地质量及栖息地间的连接,对水鸟类的迁徙、繁殖产生较大干扰,为了从整体上定量分析近几十年来湿地栖息地质量及连接度的变化,采用MaxEnt模型（maximum entropy model,最大熵模型）,基于京津冀地区雁鸭类的出现点和环境因子反演其潜在栖息地,并根据图论法原理,利用ECA指数（equivalent connected area,等效连接指数）,度量1980-2015年潜在栖息地连接度的变化.结果表明:①1980-2015年京津冀雁鸭类潜在栖息地面积总体呈下降趋势,由1980年的6 898 km2减至2015年的3 764 km2,减少了45.0%,其中,低适宜区面积降幅最为明显,为50.5%;2009-2015年高适宜区有增加趋势.②1980-2015年雁鸭类潜在栖息地连接度呈持续下降趋势,2000年以后的连接度下降速率大于2000年以前;潜在栖息地连接结构的空间分布有向环渤海地区转移的趋势,连接结构变化最为明显的区域为京津冀中部平原地区.研究显示,区域气候趋暖变干、水资源的供需失衡、水利工程设施建设以及人口增加与经济发展带来的土地利用变化是潜在栖息地面积与连接度下降的主要影响因子,而近些年保护区的建立及生态补水措施等生态保护政策对高适宜区的退化有一定缓解作用.      

不同工况下轻型车油耗试验驾驶方式评价

在一台性能稳定的汽油车上由同一驾驶人员按平顺、粗暴和正常3种驾驶方式分别进行NEDC （新欧洲行驶工况）、FTP75（美国认证工况）以及WLTC （世界统一轻型车测试循环）工况油耗试验,采用能量变化率（ER）、距离变化率（DR）、能量经济性变化率（EER）、绝对速度改变率（ASCR）、速度平方根误差（RMSSE）以及惯性做功改变率（IWR）6个指标作为驾驶质量评价指标,通过分析计算每次试验各项评价指标及其与燃料消耗量变化的相关性,确定了油耗试验驾驶方式的合理性边界条件.结果表明,对于WLTC和FTP75工况,平顺驾驶和粗暴驾驶均会导致评价指标变大或者变小,驾驶方式与评价指标呈规律性变化;对于NEDC工况,不同的驾驶方式对NEDC工况油耗影响较小.油耗试验的边界条件,WLTC工况的EER为（0.25±0.47）%、ASCR为（1.20±0.97）%、RMSSE为（0.85+0.15）km/h、IWR为（2.15±1.27）%时,可认为油耗试验的驾驶方式较为合理;FTP75工况的EER为（-0.09±0.69）%、ASCR为（-0.59±0.42）%、RMSSE为（0.88+0.34）km/h以及IWR为（-0.69±1.66）%时,油耗试验的驾驶方式较为合理.     

基于可解释性机器学习的城市O3驱动因素挖掘

受前体物排放和气象条件等因素共同驱动,大气臭氧(O₃)已成为影响城市夏季环境空气质量的主要污染物.目前物理化学机制驱动的演绎模型在进行O₃污染解析时需要的模型参数众多,运算时效性较差;数据驱动的归纳模型运算效率高,但存在可解释性差等问题.通过建立可解释性数据驱动的Correlation-ML-SHAP模型,Correlation模块挖掘O₃浓度关联影响因素,机器学习ML模块耦合可解释性SHAP模块计算各驱动因素对O₃浓度的影响贡献,实现对驱动因素的定量解析,并以晋城市2021年夏季O₃污染过程为例开展应用研究.结果表明,Correlation-ML-SHAP模型能够挖掘并利用强驱动因素模拟O₃浓度和量化影响贡献,其中ML模块采用XGBoost模型模拟准确度最佳. 2021年夏季晋城市O₃污染强驱动因素为：气温、日照强度、湿度和前体物排放水平,贡献权重为：32.1%、 21.3%、 16.5%和15.6%,其中气温、日照强度和前体物排放...     

中国碳排放及影响因素的市域尺度分析

评估区域碳排放及其与社会经济状况的关系对于制定碳减排措施至关重要.以中国339个地级及以上城市(不含新疆部分城市和港澳台地区)为研究对象,探究了非化石能源占比、土地开发度、常住人口城镇化率、第二产业占比、人均GDP和人均建设用地面积对人均CO₂排放量的影响.通过构建模拟人均CO₂排放量的贝叶斯信念网络,识别各因素对人均CO₂排放量的全局影响;采用多尺度地理加权回归模型,分析各因素对人均CO₂排放量的局部影响.结果表明：(1)2020年,中国地级及以上城市人均CO₂排放量呈现出由南向北递增,东部沿海向内陆递减的格局.(2)从全局来看,人均CO₂排放量对各因素的敏感性从高到低依次为：人均建设用地面积>人均GDP>常住人口城镇化率>土地开发度>第二产业占比>非化石能源占比.(3)从局部来看,各因素与人均CO₂排放量的空间关系方向与全局关系一致,关系强度上存在空间异质性.(4)清洁能源、脱碳技术、土地节约集约利用...     

Parents' views of teen driving risks, the role of parents, and how they plan to manage the risks

PROBLEM: There is limited information about how parents view teen driving risks and intend to handle these risks during the licensing process, and how they will respond to graduated licensing provisions. METHODS: Parents in Connecticut were interviewed when their teens got their learner's permit. The survey was undertaken when the state did not have a midnight restriction or a passenger restriction. RESULTS: Generally, parents were well aware of teen driving risks, thought parents should be thoroughly involved in the licensing process, and plan to be active participants themselves. DISCUSSION: Parents were concerned about the risk of driving after midnight and already restrict that behavior. However, parents do not seem to see or understand the risks of having even one teen passenger in the vehicle. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The views and existing practices of parents need to be taken into account in deciding on the provisions of graduated licensing legislation and how to best ensure acceptance and compliance.     

Driving anger among motor vehicle drivers in China: A cross-sectional survey

Objective: Driving anger is a common emotion while driving and has been associated with traffic crashes. This study aimed to investigate situations that increase driving anger among Chinese drivers.

Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 3,101 drivers in southern China. The translated version of the 33-item Driving Anger Scale (DAS) was used to measure driving anger. Data were collected by face-to-face interviews between June 2016 and September 2016.

Results: Confirmatory factor analysis showed that the fit of the original 6-factor model (discourtesy, traffic obstacles, hostile gestures, slow driving, illegal driving, and police presence) was satisfactory, after removing 2 items and allowing 5 error pairs to covary. The model showed satisfactory fit: goodness of fit index (GFI) = 0.90, incremental fit index (IFI) = 0.90, root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) = 0.06, 90% confidence interval (CI) = 0.061–0.064. Driving anger among Chinese drivers was lower than that in some Western countries. Compared to older and experienced drivers, younger and new drivers were more likely to report driving anger. There was no difference in total reported driving anger between males and females. Additionally, the higher the driver’s anger level was, the more likely he or she was to have had a traffic crash.

Conclusion: Driving anger is a common emotion among Chinese drivers and has a strong correlation with aggressive driving behavior and traffic crashes.     

突发事件应急推演系统平台分析与设计

本文首先以近几年几起典型事故为例,提出开展应急演练的重要意义,并在简要回顾应急演练及其支持系统的功能与技术演化过程后,以“预防、监测、响应、恢复、重建”为五阶段,“减灾、准备”为基础活动的应急管理阶段模型为基础,规划推演系统平台的总体建设目标与应用范围,进一步归纳、分析系统平台的参与者与功能需求,提出以“推演项目”为核心,以“应急推演导调”、“应急推演学员”、“应急推演模拟员”、“应急推演评估员”和“应急推演管理员”五类角色为系统参与者的“系统总体功能框架”,并从物理实现的角度讨论了系统平台的技术特点与总体结构.     

载重车辆超载检测与阻止装置研究

针对载重车辆严重的超载问题,对车辆超载的起因、危害、检测方法等进行了深入的分析,提出了一种基于光电式位移传感器的车辆超载检测与阻止装置,并对其进行了结构设计与原理分析。利用车辆载荷与车身高度之间的对应关系,在车辆静止的状态下,通过检测车架与车桥的距离,判断车辆的载荷情况。根据超载情况提供不同的超载报警提醒,甚至切断起动机电源线、喷油器供电线及点火信号线,使发动机无法起动或正常工作,从而从源头上阻止车辆超载现象的发生。     

Estimating resource utilization demands in implementing statewide screening,brief intervention,and referral to treatment for alcohol-impaired drivers

Objectives: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is used to assess the level of alcohol use/misuse and to inform the intensity of intervention delivered within screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) programs. Policy initiatives are recommending delivery of SBIRT within health care settings to reduce alcohol misuse and prevent alcohol-impaired driving. Recent reports are considering extending delivery of SBIRT to criminal justice settings. One consideration in implementing SBIRT delivery is the question of resource utilization; the amount of effort required in delivering the 4 different intensities of intervention in SBIRT: Alcohol education, simple advice, brief counseling and continued monitoring, and brief counseling and referral to specialist (from least to most intense in terms of delivery time, the skill level of the provider, and personnel resources).

Methods: In order to inform expectations about intervention intensity, this article describes the AUDIT scores from 982 adults recently arrested for alcohol-impaired driving. The distribution of scores is extrapolated to state rates for individuals arrested for alcohol-impaired driving by intervention level.

Results: Though alcohol education was the most common intervention category, about one quarter of the sample scored in a range corresponding with the more intensive interventions using the brief counseling, continued monitoring for ongoing alcohol use, and/or referral to specialist for diagnostic evaluation and treatment.

Conclusions: This article provides local distribution of AUDIT scores and state estimates for the number of individuals scoring in each level of risk (AUDIT risk zone) and corresponding intervention type. Routine criminal justice practice is well positioned to deliver alcohol screening, education, simple advice, and continued alcohol monitoring, making delivery of SBIRT feasible for the majority of alcohol-impaired drivers. Challenges to implementing the full range of SBIRT services include resource demands of brief counseling, identifying the appropriate providers within a criminal justice context, and availability of community providers for referral to diagnostic and specialty care. Solutions may vary by state due to differences in population density and incidence rates of alcohol-impaired driving.