基于BP神经网络的鄱阳湖水位模拟

考虑到鄱阳湖水位受流域五河与长江来水等多因素的共同作用而表现出高度非线性响应,采用典型的三层BPNN神经网络模型来模拟鄱阳湖水位与其主控因子之间的响应关系。分别将湖口、星子、都昌、棠荫和康山水位作为目标变量进行BPNN模型构建和适用性评估。结果显示：综合考虑流域五河及长江来水（汉口或九江）的BPNN水位模型,空间站点水位模拟精度（R2和Ens）可达090以上,各站点的均方根误差（RMSE）变化范围约050～10 m,若忽略长江来水的影响作用,仅将流域五河来水作为湖泊水位的主控影响因子,模型训练期与测试期的纳希效率系数（Ens）和确定性系数（R2）显著降低,且低于050,均方根误差（RMSE）也明显增大（124～288 m）,意味着综合考虑流域五河与长江来水是获取结构合理、精度保证的鄱阳湖水位模型的重要前提。同时建议针对鄱阳湖湖盆变化对水位的影响,尽可能选择一致性较好的长序列数据集来训练和测试BPNN模型。所构建的BPNN神经网络模型可进一步结合流域水文模型,用来预测气候变化与人类活动下流域径流变化对湖泊水位的潜在影响,也可作为一种有效的模型工具来回答当前鄱阳湖一些备受关注的热点问题,如定量区分流域五河与长江来水对湖泊洪枯水位的贡献分量,为湖泊洪涝灾害的防治和对策制定提供科学依据     

高铁扣件弹条疲劳断裂原因分析

通过对WJ-7型扣件中60Si2MnA弹条在拉伸-扭转试验过程发生断裂的原因进行分析和数值模拟研究,得出弹条断裂的原因.对60Si2MnA弹条承受的荷载进行分析可知,WJ-7型扣件在铁垫板与弹条后端接触区域内弯处应力集中最大,是造成弹条断裂破坏的主要原因之一,而弹条断裂的根本原因是弹条长期处于极限强度下工作,使弹条最终...     

柴油机冷起动辅助措施的匹配优化试验研究

重点论述了柴油机冷启动辅助装置燃油加热器的选型试验。对燃油加热器优劣的评价指标进行了分析研究,提出了燃油加热器的评价方法。最后通过样本CFD分析,优化了燃油加热器与发动机之间水路系统的匹配,实际效果进行了试验验证。     

雷达关键部件对西北地区典型环境适应性的综合仿真研究

长期工作在西北地区大温差、多风砂和强紫外线等恶劣复杂环境下的雷达装备表面极易出现表面磨蚀或损坏。建立了雷达对西北地区综合环境适应性的仿真分析方法,以计算流体动力学(CFD)软件FLUENT为平台,对雷达典型部件在大温差、多风砂和强紫外线环境中的表面状态进行仿真模拟。仿真结果与雷达装备实际情况较为吻合,为进一步深入研究相关物理机理以及设计防护措施提供了理论依据。     

Coupling of the Water Cycle with Patterns of Urban Growth in the Baltimore Metropolitan Region,United States

Regional municipal water plans typically do not recognize complex coupling patterns or that increased withdrawals in one location can result in changes in water availability in others. We investigated the interaction between urban growth and water availability in the Baltimore metropolitan region where urban growth has occurred beyond the reaches of municipal water systems into areas that rely on wells in low‐productivity Piedmont aquifers. We used the urban growth model SLEUTH and the hydrologic model ParFlow.CLM to evaluate this interaction with urban growth scenarios in 2007 and 2030. We found decreasing groundwater availability outside of the municipal water service area. Within the municipal service area we found zones of increasing storage resulting from increased urban growth, where reduced vegetation cover dominated the effect of urbanization on the hydrologic cycle. We also found areas of decreasing storage, where expanding impervious surfaces played a larger role. Although the magnitude of urban growth and change in water availability for the simulation period were generally small, there was considerable spatial heterogeneity of changes in subsurface storage. This suggests that there are locally concentrated areas of groundwater sensitivity to urban growth where water shortages could occur or where drying up of headwater streams would be more likely. The simulation approach presented here could be used to identify early warning indicators of future risk.     

Institutional Constraints on Cost‐Effective Water Management: Selenium Contamination in Colorado's Lower Arkansas River Valley

Ground and surface water selenium (Se) contamination is problematic throughout the world, leading to harmful impacts on aquatic life, wildlife, livestock, and humans. A groundwater reactive transport model was applied to a regional‐scale irrigated groundwater system in the Lower Arkansas River Basin in southeastern Colorado to identify management practices that remediate Se contamination. The system has levels of surface water and groundwater Se concentrations exceeding the respective chronic standard and guidelines. We evaluate potential solutions by combining the transport model with an assessment of the cost to employ those practices. We use a framework common in economics and engineering fields alike, the Pareto frontier, to show the impact of four different best management practices on the tradeoffs between Se and cost objectives. We then extend that analysis to include institutional constraints that affect the economic feasibility associated with each practice. Results indicate that although water‐reducing strategies have the greatest impact on Se, they are the hardest for farmers to implement given constraints common to western water rights institutions. Therefore, our analysis shows that estimating economic and environmental tradeoffs, as is typically done with a Pareto frontier, will not provide an accurate picture of choices available to farmers where institutional constraints should also be considered.     

Comparative study on performances of a heat-pipe PV/T system and a heat-pipe solar water heating system

The heat-pipe solar water heating (HP-SWH) system and the heat-pipe photovoltaic/thermal (HP-PV/T) system are two practical solar systems, both of which use heat pipes to transfer heat. By selecting appropriate working fluid of the heat-pipes, these systems can be used in the cold region without being frozen. However, performances of these two solar systems are different because the HP-PV/T system can simultaneously provide electricity and heat, whereas the HP-SWH system provides heat only. In order to understand these two systems, this work presents a mathematical model for each system to study their one-day and annual performances. One-day simulation results showed that the HP-SWH system obtained more thermal energy and total energy than the HP-PV/T system while the HP-PV/T system achieved higher exergy efficiency than the HP-SWH system. Annual simulation results indicated that the HP-SWH system can heat the water to the available temperature (45°C) solely by solar energy for more than 121 days per year in typical climate regions of China, Hong Kong, Lhasa, and Beijing, while the HP-PV/T system can only work for not more than 102 days. The HP-PV/T system, however, can provide an additional electricity output of 73.019 kWh/m², 129.472 kWh/m², and 90.309 kWh/m² per unit collector area in the three regions, respectively.     

洪泛区林地的开发对鱼类栖息地面积的影响模拟

洪泛区的开发利用,必然会导致洪泛区林地糙率的改变。河漫滩也是河流洪泛区的一部分。洪泛区糙率的减小,会使河水流速增大,从而减小鱼类可用栖息地面积。因此,在洪水发生时,为了给鱼类提供避险场所,保护有效栖息地面积,需研究洪泛区林地的开发对鱼类的影响。利用River 2D软件模拟在一定频率的洪水条件下,不同的河漫滩糙率对应的鱼类栖息地加权可用面积(WUA),分析了糙率的改变对河流鱼类栖息地的影响。结果表明:随着河漫滩糙率的降低,加权可用面积(WUA)逐渐减小,河漫滩范围内WUA的变化幅度比较大,河漫滩的特性对鱼类栖息地面积的影响很大。洪泛区植被的砍伐,会使鱼类栖息地面积减小。因此,应防止洪泛区的过度开发,保护河流生态环境。     

Economic and environmental value stream map (E2VSM) simulation for multi-product manufacturing systems

Value stream mapping (VSM) is a well-accepted tool within lean manufacturing concept which is often used for analysing and designing the flow of materials and information required to manufacture a product. However, the analysis is static and single product oriented, which fails to cope with either the variation of production plan or a multi-product environment. In addition, the environmental impact of a manufacturing system is highly associated with the dynamic consumption of energy and resources. Despite the recent integration of VSM with simulation or environmental studies (in the domain of energy efficiency), still neglected is the dynamic assessment of all the resources involved in a multi-product production environment. This paper presents a methodology for modelling multi-product manufacturing systems with dynamic material, energy and information flows with the aim to generate economic and environmental value stream maps (E²VSM). The proposed methodology is validated with an industrial case.     

VIC模型与SWAT模型在中小流域径流模拟中的对比研究

结合GIS与RS技术的分布式水文模型已成为当今水文界研究的重点。从气象与水文水资源学科交叉的角度对分布式水文模型VIC模型与SWAT模型进行研究,并将其应用于白莲河流域,以此探讨该模型在中小流域的适用性。模拟结果表明,VIC模型与SWAT模型在白莲河流域率定期与检验期的模拟效果相差很小。SWAT模型的效率系数与相关系数略高一些,SWAT模型的模拟效果比较平均,每年相差不大;但VIC模型在1995年和1999年模拟效果明显好于其它年份,尤其在2002年,VIC模型模拟的洪峰与实测的相差较大,从而影响总体的效率系数偏低,而SWAT模型模拟的更接近实测值。研究结果表明两种模型对于我国中小流域的径流模拟具有一定的适用性.