基于社会公共机构的道路交通事故经济损失评价及计量模型研究

根据中国道路交通事故经济损失的研究现状,借鉴国外对道路交通事故经济损失研究的成功经验,提出适用于中国实际情况的交通事故社会公共机构服务损失费用构成;确定了道路交通事故社会公共机构服务损失评价指标体系。基于经济学和统计学理论,主要从警方服务、清障服务、管理部门服务和法律诉讼服务4个方面对道路交通事故社会服务损失进行了深层次理论分析与评价;构建了相应的评价计量模型;提出了我国评价交通事故社会服务损失的一些合理化建议。研究结果对科学、全面、合理地评价道路交通事故社会经济损失具有重要的实际意义。     

MANY RESOURCES,MANY USES: A SYSTEM ANALYSIS APPROACH TO RENEWABLE RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT1

ABSTRACT: Decisionmaking associated with the Nation's 1.7 billion acres of forest and range land has become increasingly complicated because of the rise in competition for resource use and in the awareness of environmental and social effects. This system analysis approach uses four models to synthesize pertinent masses of information into measures of economic, environmental, and social impacts. The system results can be used to help evaluate alternative national programs. The models are:

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SOCIAL WELL-BEING AND WATER RESOURCES PLANNING1

ABSTRACT: For many years, Federal water resources projects have been subjected to benefit-cost analysis to establish their economic feasibility. Several years ago social well-being was added as a consideration. This paper discusses the state-of-the-art in analyzing and evaluating aspects of social well-being. It stresses current short-falls and advocates a direction for further efforts.     

SOCIAL OVERHEAD CAPITAL COSTS OF IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT IN WASHINGTON STATE1

ABSTRACT: Increased irrigation as a means of achieving economic development can impose significant social costs on the state or region of growth. The growth in population induced by additional irrigation will require new roads, water and sewage facilities, schools, fire and police protection, etc. Also the increased energy demands due to irrigation and growth in economic activity must be met. Capital investments required to service these needs of new development can become very large. This study attempts to measure such social overhead costs or irrigation development for some specific irrigation project areas of Eastern Washington. It is shown that investment costs in overhead items can reach $2,000 per acre irrigated or $70,000 per job created. Alternatively, the annual costs can equal $180 per acre or $6,700 per worker. These costs must be paid locally through increased taxes, utility rates, or costs for services.     

A BASIS FOR ASSESSING DIFFERENTIAL PARTICIPATION IN WATER-BASED RECREATION1

ABSTRACT: Participation in water-based recreation activities does not arise in random fashion nor simply as a result of having a water resource immediately available. Neither do individuals and groups engage in the same activities or a specific activity in the same way. The purpose of the present paper is to describe an alternative framework whereby differences among recreation users can be identified. Prior to this time, research directed toward understanding participation patterns at a recreational site have emphasized the activities while ignoring the human behavior factors which determine how participation arises. People consider recreation sites to be leisure settings in which the definition of such places has a broader socio-cultural meaning than that the site was designed. These definitions are reflected within the context of the social group and can be observed in the subsequent orientation to leisure and play. When activities are considered in the context of a human group, differences in participation patterns can be discovered.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
Thomas Drabek, Disaster-induced Employee Evacuation
Hugh Brammer, Agricultural Disaster Management in Bangladesh
Boris Porfiriev, Disaster Planning and Emergency Management in Russia
Patrick Bracken and Celia Petty, eds, Rethinking the Trauma of War
R. Cohen and F. M. Deng, eds, The Forsaken People: Case Studies of the Internally Displaced
Tom Trier and Lars Funch Hansen, eds, Conflict and Forced Displacement in the Caucasus: Perspectives, Challenges and Responses     

基于社会网络分析的江西各地市公路行业碳排放的关联与分异特征研究

针对各地公路碳排放的空间差异与关联特征，制定合理的低碳策略，实现各地协同碳减排，是行业可持续发展的热点问题。以江西省为研究对象，采用空间自相关、社会网络分析和引力模型等分析11地市公路行业碳排放的空间差异与关联，识别社会网络的结构特征及其演变趋势，明确不同地市在网络中的地位和作用，结果显示：（1）公路货运是公路行业碳排放的最主要来源；（2）江西省公路行业碳排放整体上呈现空间随机分布，不存在全局的空间聚集性，且局部空间聚集特征不断变化；（3）公路行业碳排放网络逐渐从南昌、新余双中心结构演变为南昌为主的单中心结构，网络的协同作用整体呈减弱趋势，核心地市对外围地市的影响力和带动作用不足。     

Stochastic Transfer Function Model and Neural Networks to Estimate Soil Moisture1

Abstract: A practical methodology is proposed to estimate the three‐dimensional variability of soil moisture based on a stochastic transfer function model, which is an approximation of the Richard’s equation. Satellite, radar and in situ observations are the major sources of information to develop a model that represents the dynamic water content in the soil. The soil‐moisture observations were collected from 17 stations located in Puerto Rico (PR), and a sequential quadratic programming algorithm was used to estimate the parameters of the transfer function (TF) at each station. Soil texture information, terrain elevation, vegetation index, surface temperature, and accumulated rainfall for every grid cell were input into a self‐organized artificial neural network to identify similarities on terrain spatial variability and to determine the TF that best resembles the properties of a particular grid point. Soil moisture observed at 20 cm depth, soil texture, and cumulative rainfall were also used to train a feedforward artificial neural network to estimate soil moisture at 5, 10, 50, and 100 cm depth. A validation procedure was implemented to measure the horizontal and vertical estimation accuracy of soil moisture. Validation results from spatial and temporal variation of volumetric water content (vwc) showed that the proposed algorithm estimated soil moisture with a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.31% vwc, and the vertical profile shows a RMSE of 2.50% vwc. The algorithm estimates soil moisture in an hourly basis at 1 km spatial resolution, and up to 1 m depth, and was successfully applied under PR climate conditions.     

Managers as drivers of CSR in state-owned enterprises

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) is increasingly required not only of private sector companies, but also of state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whose main function is to provide services to society and not principally to obtain financial reward. The important role played by managers in implementing CSR has been demonstrated by prior research. The objective of this paper is to examine how managers of SOEs perceive the concept of CSR, the reasons for their involvement and how it is integrated into everyday business practices. In addition, we examine whether managers' attitudes towards CSR policies are influenced by their personal profiles and by the sector in which the SOEs work. We find that, although these managers are aware of the importance of the CSR principles underlying their activities and understand the meaning, scope and dimensions of CSR, there remains an evident need to enhance the application of CSR policies among the strategies of SOEs. The manager profile and the sector in which the SOEs work both have a strong influence on their behaviour regarding CSR issues.     

Development and Operational Testing of a Super‐Ensemble Artificial Intelligence Flood‐Forecast Model for a Pacific Northwest River

Coastal catchments in British Columbia, Canada, experience a complex mixture of rainfall‐ and snowmelt‐driven contributions to flood events. Few operational flood‐forecast models are available in the region. Here, we integrated a number of proven technologies in a novel way to produce a super‐ensemble forecast system for the Englishman River, a flood‐prone stream on Vancouver Island. This three‐day‐ahead modeling system utilizes up to 42 numerical weather prediction model outputs from the North American Ensemble Forecast System, combined with six artificial neural network‐based streamflow models representing various slightly different system conceptualizations, all of which were trained exclusively on historical high‐flow data. As such, the system combines relatively low model development times and costs with the generation of fully probabilistic forecasts reflecting uncertainty in the simulation of both atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic dynamics. Results from operational testing by British Columbia's flood forecasting agency during the 2013‐2014 storm season suggest that the prediction system is operationally useful and robust.