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基于不确定性分析的健康环境风险评价 总被引:16,自引:1,他引:15
基于对水源地石油污染等现场调查数据为基础,选取典型污染物苯,利用可传递参数差异的蒙特卡罗技术方法,分析了乙烯厂不同分区苯污染经过呼吸和饮水暴露途径造成人体健康风险的不确定性,量化不确定性因素影响的A地区人体健康风险水平.结果表明,裂解装置区是苯污染影响人体健康风险水平的主要来源,产生的健康风险水平均值为1.17×10-4,而其他3个分区的影响较小;所有分区苯污染对A地区产生的人体健康总风险均值为1.18×10-4,大于美国环保局人体健康风险建议值10-6,对人体健康已产生影响;受不确定性因素影响,根据不同的人体健康可以承受的风险水平限值,污染对人体健康产生影响的概率存在差异.因此量化不确定性对风险水平的影响,可为污染场地的风险管理和修复行动提供科学依据. 相似文献
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The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND 总被引:6,自引:2,他引:4
Richard S. J. Tol 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2007,12(5):741-753
This paper studies the effects of adaptation and mitigation on the impacts of sea level rise. Without adaptation, the impact
of sea level rise would be substantial, almost wiping out entire countries by 2100, although the globally aggregate effect
is much smaller. Adaptation would reduce potential impacts by a factor 10–100. Adaptation would come at a minor cost compared
to the damage avoided. As adaptation depends on socio-economic status, the rank order of most vulnerable countries is different
than the rank order of most exposed countries. Because the momentum of sea level rise is so large, mitigation can reduce impacts
only to a limited extent. Stabilising carbon dioxide concentrations at 550 ppm would cut impacts in 2100 by about 10%. However,
the costs of emission reduction lower the avoided impacts by up to 25% (average 10%). This is partly due to the reduced availability
of resources for adaptation, and partly due to the increased sensitivity to wetland loss by adaptation.
相似文献
Richard S. J. TolEmail: |
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The coupled SWAP-WOFOST model was used to study the effects of increasing salinity of groundwater, drought and water excess on grass production in The Netherlands. WOFOST simulates crop growth and SWAP simulates transport of water, solutes and heat in the vadose zone. The model was tested using several datasets from field experiments. We applied the models at regional scale where we quantified the impact of various groundwater salinity levels on grass growth and production using historical weather data (1971-2000). The salt concentrations in the subsoil were derived from the National Hydrological Instrument. The results show that salinity effects on grass production are limited. In wet years the excess rainfall will infiltrate the soil and reduce salt water seepage. In a next step we used future weather data for the year 2050, derived from 3 Global Circulation Models. From each model we used data from two CO2 emission scenarios. As expected higher temperatures increased drought stress, however, the production reduction as a result of salt water in the root zone is limited. Salt stress mainly occurred when irrigation was applied with saline water. The increased CO2 concentration in combination with the limited drought stress resulted in increasing simulated actual and potential yields. Overall conclusion for grassland in The Netherlands: drought stress is stronger than stress caused by water excess which on its turn is stronger than salinity stress. Future water demand for irrigation may increase by 11-19% and result in water scarcity if water supply is insufficient. 相似文献
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以实际工作中的含油废水为研究对象,采用加压气浮处理工艺,通过多年的实际应用与对监测数据的分析,总结出气浮压力对气浮处理效果的影响,通过对溶气罐压力的调整,可得到最佳的出水水质。该项研究结果操作方便、处理效率高、易于控制、对今后的工作具有指导意义,有很好的推广价值。 相似文献
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