2006年9-10月国内环境事件

简要统计了2006年9-10月国内发生的各种环境事件103起,包括污染事件29起,地震12起,山体滑坡和泥石流20起,旱灾5起,以及其他自然灾害37起.文中对污染事件和自然灾害进行了讨论.     

中国建筑火灾引起坍塌事故的统计与分析

为了研究火灾引起的建筑结构坍塌的机理,便于已有建筑的抗火防护和新建建筑的抗火设计,通过查询文献资料和新闻媒体报道,对我国建筑火灾坍塌事例进行了调查,对火灾坍塌建筑物的结构形式、层数和使用功能等方面进行了统计分析,列出了部分我国火灾史上1960-2005年所发生的火灾坍塌事例.调查结果显示,钢结构、特别是工业厂房钢屋架在火灾下较其他形式的建筑易发生坍塌;4～8层的民用建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;工业厂房,仓库和商业建筑发生火灾坍塌的比例较高;民用建筑多发生局部坍塌;发生坍塌的建筑一般存在设计和施工不规范以及防火设施不合格等情况.     

Arsenic, Cadmium, Lead, and Mercury in surface soils, Pueblo, Colorado: implications for population health risk

Decades of intensive industrial and agricultural practices as well as rapid urbanization have left communities like Pueblo, Colorado facing potential health threats from pollution of its soils, air, water and food supply. To address such concerns about environmental contamination, we conducted an urban geochemical study of the city of Pueblo to offer insights into the potential chemical hazards in soil and inform priorities for future health studies and population interventions aimed at reducing exposures to inorganic substances. The current study characterizes the environmental landscape of Pueblo in terms of heavy metals, and relates this to population distributions. Soil was sampled within the city along transects and analyzed for arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb). We also profiled Pueblo’s communities in terms of their socioeconomic status and demographics. ArcGIS 9.0 was used to perform exploratory spatial data analysis and generate community profiles and prediction maps. The topsoil in Pueblo contains more As, Cd, Hg and Pb than national soil averages, although average Hg content in Pueblo was within reported baseline ranges. The highest levels of As concentrations ranged between 56.6 and 66.5 ppm. Lead concentrations exceeded 300 ppm in several of Pueblo’s residential communities. Elevated levels of lead are concentrated in low-income Hispanic and African-American communities. Areas of excessively high Cd concentration exist around Pueblo, including low income and minority communities, raising additional health and environmental justice concerns. Although the distribution patterns vary by element and may reflect both industrial and non-industrial sources, the study confirms that there is environmental contamination around Pueblo and underscores the need for a comprehensive public health approach to address environmental threats in urban communities.     

中国的消防工作现状分析

建国四十多年来，我国的消防工作取得了巨大的成就。但是，近几年的火灾形势是严峻的。本文基于八十年代中期至１９９４年的火灾统计数据，总结了火灾发生的规律，阐述了近几年火灾形势发展的新动向。分析表明，由于现行的消防工作没能与社会协调发展，是造成近几年火灾急剧上升的主要原因。消防工作的当务之急，就是解决在新形势下暴露出的问题：如建立和完善与新国情相适应的消防法制管理体系；消防管理部门吸收社会上的科技专家共同开展消防咨询和监督工作；开展针对目前形势下的火灾探测、报警及扑救装备的研究；努力改善消防人员的装备条件以提高战斗力，等等。本文最后指出，为吸取近几年火灾带给我们的血的教训，避免今后消防工作再次出现落后于社会发展的局面，有必要对未来可能出现的火灾方面的新问题作预测，并对这些问题作一些超前研究，以达到防患于未然的目的。     

CO-KRIGING TO INCORPORATE SCREENING DATA: HUDSON RIVER SEDIMENT PCBs1

ABSTRACT: Kriging methods of geostatistical analysis provide valuable techniques for analysis of sediment contamination problems, including interpolation of concentration maps from point data and estimation of global mean concentrations. Sample collection efforts frequently include preliminary screening data of considerably more extensive coverage than the laboratory analyses on which estimation is usually based. How should these be incorporated in kriging? Screening and laboratory analysis constitute two separate estimates of the same spatial field but of very different characteristics. A modified version of co-kriging is developed to include the imprecise screening information in the analysis of contaminant distribution. Use of the method is demonstrated on a data set of sediment PCB samples from the Upper Hudson River, for which preliminary categorical mass spectrometry screening was used to select a smaller set of samples for gas chromatograph analysis. The method is widely applicable to many situations of contaminant and natural resource estimation.     

A COMPARISON OF HAND- AND SPLINE-DRAWN PRECIPITATION MAPS FOR MOUNTAINOUS MONTANA1

ABSTRACT: Average annual precipitation for the period 1961–1990 was estimated for a mountainous region in Montana with a Laplacian thin-plate spline (ANUSPLIN) and compared to a hand-drawn map. Input data included latitude, longitude, and elevation from a three-arc-second U.S. Geological Survey Digital Elevation Model of the Bozeman and Billings 1 × 2 topographic quadrangles and precipitation data at 96 stations. The two maps are similar in appearance. Digital comparison of the two maps with ARC/INFO's Grid tools shows that mean annual precipitation for the hand-contoured map is 22.9 inches and for the ANUSPLIN map is 23.7 inches. Of the 5,760,000 cells, 53 percent showed no difference between ANUSPLIN and hand-drawn maps; 19 percent showed a two-inch difference, and 28 percent showed more than 2 inches difference. Input data and model output at the same location are not different (standard deviation 1.77, p-value 0.76). Hand-drawn maps show two inches more precipitation during the 1961–90 period than during the 1941–1970 period. Similarly, measured data at 73 sites for the period 1961–1990 are on average 2.4 inches higher than the same stations during the 1941–1970 period. The difference is significant (p-value > 0.0001).     

NON-ZERO LOWER LIMIT IN LOW FLOW FREQUENCY ANALYSIS?1

ABSTRACT: The implications of fitting distributions with non-zero lower limits to low flow data are examined. The 3-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to annual minimum flow series from 60 long term stations in Canada. The relations between the estimated lower limit and three sampling variables (skewness, smallest, and largest observations) were investigated. The lower limit strongly depends on the sample skewness; it varies directly with the sample skewness, which in turn is highly influenced by the largest observation. For a given skewness, the value of the estimated lower limit is determined by the value of the smallest observation. Therefore, the lower limit cannot be accurately determined, and the resulting low flow estimates will be either too small or too high.     

ESTIMATION OF COASTAL WATER CONTAMINATION LONG-TERM TREND USING SEASONAL LINEAR MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Bivalves are used as bioindicators to assess trends of the chemical quality of coastal and marine environments due to their ability to concentrate chemicals. These shellfish are subject to seasonal physiological changes influencing the chemical concentration. Using quarterly data, we model concentration via linear regression with a biologically based seasonal component. This was applied to cadmium concentration measured in the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) at three sites in the Seine estuary (Normandy, France). In this case we have a high concentration season from January to June and a “low concentration” season from July to December. This season definition was checked a posteriori, using box-and-whisker plots and a statistical test of comparison of pair-wise adjusted least-squares mean differences, and it appears to be very reasonable. We averaged data by season and across sites. Our final model (R²= 0.846 with N= 27 observations) includes highly significant terms: a season effect, which accounts for 45% of the total variability, a linear and a quadratic time term. Outliers were identified by high Studentized residual values and attributed to bias in the temporal sampling schemes. The methodology developed will further be used with other shellfish and/or other trace elements and organic chemicals.     

EFFECT OF SIMULATED CLIMATE CHANGE ON SNOWMELT RUNOFF MODELING IN SELECTED BASINS1

ABSTRACT: The projected increase in the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to result in a global temperature increase. This paper reports on the probable effects of a temperature increase and changes in transpiration on basin discharge in two different mountain snowmelt regions of the western United States. The hydrological effects of the climate changes are modeled with a relatively simple conceptual, semi-distributed snowmelt runoff model. Based on the model results, it may be concluded that increased air temperatures will result in a shift of snowmelt runoff to earlier in the snowmelt season. Furthermore, it is shown that it is very important to include the expected change in climate-related basin conditions resulting from the modeled temperature increase in the runoff simulation. The effect of adapting the model parameters to reflect the changed basin conditions resulted in a further shift of streamflow to April and an even more significant decrease of snowmelt runoff in June and July. If the air temperatures increase by approximately 5°C and precipitation and accumulated snow amounts remain about the same, runoff in April and May, averaged for the two basins, is expected to increase by 185 percent and 26 percent, respectively. The runoff in June and July will decrease by about 60 percent each month. Overall, the total seasonal runoff decreases by about 6 percent. If increased CO₂ concentrations further change basin conditions by reducing transpiration by the maximum amounts reported in the literature, then, combined with the 5°C temperature increase, the April, May, June, and July changes would average +230 percent, +40 percent, ?55 percent, and ?45 percent, respectively. The total seasonal runoff change would be +11 percent.     

VALIDATION OF AGNPS FOR SMALL WATERSHEDS USING AN INTEGRATED AGNPS/GIS SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: The AGNPS (AGricultural NonPoint Source) model was evaluated for predicting runoff and sediment delivery from small watersheds of mild topography. Fifty sediment yield events were monitored from two watersheds and five nested subwater-sheds in East Central Illinois throughout the growing season of four years. Half of these events were used to calibrate parameters in the AGNPS model. Average calibrated parameters were used as input for the remaining events to obtain runoff and sediment yield data. These data were used to evaluate the suitability of the AGNPS model for predicting runoff and sediment yield from small, mild-sloped watersheds. An integrated AGNPS/GIS system was used to efficiently create the large number of data input changes necessary to this study. This system is one where the AGNPS model was integrated with the GRASS (Geographic Resources Analysis Support System) GIS (Geographical Information System) to develop a decision support tool to assist with management of runoff and erosion from agricultural watersheds. The integrated system assists with the development of input GIS layers to AGNPS, running the model, and interpretation of the results.