基于模糊统计的山区公路安全评价研究

应用模糊统计中的集值统计方法对山区公路进行交通安全评价研究,以克服应用等级比重法和专家评分法对模糊和非定量化指标评价中评价精度不高的问题。首先建立评价指标体系并进行权重分配,采用集值统计法确定评价值,最终得出道路安全评价结果,确定影响交通安全的主要因素。通过算例说明了模糊统计法能有效解决山区公路安全性评价问题。     

基于火灾统计数据的火灾形势综合评价和定量预测

火灾统计分析是研究火灾随机性规律的有效方法,它通过总结、整理和分析大量的火灾原始资料,归纳出火灾发生的统计规律.利用多属性综合评价法可对火灾统计数据进行深层次的开发和利用;同时应用预测学原理,建立了我国火灾形势的二次指数平滑预测模型,结果表明火灾总体呈发展趋势.     

由我院学生图书借阅行为分析看图书馆工作的改进

图书馆的读者借阅情况可反应出学生的学风及图书馆文献资源的适用情况,因此对流通记录的统计工作是图书馆的一项重要工作.通过对我馆图书馆管理系统软件后台数据的进一步分析,得出了读者到馆人次、人数及借阅图书类别等项目的统计数据,了解我院学生的图书借阅行为的概况,并进而分析图书馆在文献资源建设及图书馆服务方面存在的问题及并提出相应的解决方案.     

中国自然灾害灾情统计现状及展望

自然灾害灾情统计是灾害评估、应急救助、灾后恢复重建等工作的基础。本文从我国自然灾害灾情统计的现状出发，认为灾种界定不清、统计内容不规范、尚未建立高效的灾情上报系统是我国灾情统计工作中存在的几大问题。建立规范的灾情统计标准和对重大自然灾害事件的统计制度、建立灾情统计的评估方法、提高基层灾情统计人员素质等，是推动我国灾情统计工作快速发展的主要途径。     

ESTIMATING STREAMFLOW AND ASSOCIATED HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY,THE MID‐ATLANTIC REGION,USA1

ABSTRACT: Methods to estimate streamflow and channel hydraulic geometry were developed for unpaged streams in the Mid‐Atlantic Region. Observed mean annual streamflow and associated hydraulic geometry data from 75 gaging stations in the Appalachian Plateau, the Ridge and Valley, and the Piedmont Physiographic Provinces of the Mid‐Atlantic Region were used to develop a set of power functions that relate streamflow to drainage area and hydraulic geometry to streamflow. For all three physiographic provinces, drainage area explained 95 to 98 percent of the variance in mean annual streamflow. Relationships between mean annual streamflow and water surface width and mean flow depth had coefficients of determination that ranged from R²= 0.55 to R²= 0.91, but the coefficient of determination between mean flow velocity and mean annual streamflow was lower (R²= 0.44 to R²= 0.54). The advantages of using the regional regression models to estimate streamflow over a conceptual model or a water balance model are its ease of application and reduced input data needs. The prediction of the regression equations were tested with data collected as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). In addition, equations to transfer streamflow from gaged to ungaged streams are presented.     

FORECASTING DRY SEASON STREAMFLOW ON THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA,FLORIDA, USA1

ABSTRACT: The Peace River at Arcadia, Florida, is a municipal water supply supplement for southwestern Florida. Consequently, probabilities of encountering low flows during the dry season are of critical importance. Since the association between Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and seasonal streamflow variability in the southeastern United States is well documented, it is reasonable to generate forecasts based on this information. Here, employing historic records of minimum, mean, and maximum flows during winter (JFM) and spring (AMJ), upper and lower terciles define “above normal,”“normal,” and “below normal” levels of each variable. A probability distribution model describes the likelihood of these seasonal variables conditioned upon Pacific SSTs from the previous summer (JAS). Model calibration is based upon 40 (of 50) years of record employing stratified random sampling to ensure equal representation from each decade. The model is validated against the remaining 10 samples and the process repeated 100 times. Each conditional probability distribution yields varying probabilities of observing flow variables within defined categories. Generally, a warm (cold) Pacific is associated with higher (lower) flows. To test model skill, the forecast is constrained to be the most probable category in each calibration year, with significance tested by chi‐square frequency tables. For all variables, the tables indicate high levels of association between forecast and observed terciles and forecast skill, particularly during winter. During spring the pattern is less clear, possibly due to the variable starting date of the summer rainy season. This simple technique suggests that Pacific SSTs provide a good forecast of low flows.     

铜陵有色金属(集团)公司工伤死亡事故统计分析系统数据库的建立、维护及管理

建立工伤死亡事故统计分析数据库,可利用计算机对大量的伤亡事故的原始数据进行处理,得出不同要求的统计分析结果,从中找出伤亡事故发生的一些规律,为今后的安全生产提出应该重视的问题,为采取预防措施提供依据。     

PHYSICAL DETERMINANTS OF ECONOMIC VALUE OF RIPARIAN BUFFERS IN AN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: Economic values of riparian buffers in a watershed are evaluated by the changes in the net economic return for farming with and without riparian buffers when achieving the same water quality objectives. The simulated water quality impacts of alternative farming systems using SWAT and experimental data for riparian buffers are used in a mathematical optimization model to estimate net economic return for farming subject to a water quality objective. Physical characteristics such as stream length, channel slope, average land slope, cropland percentage and several soil attributes are identified in the watershed using ARC/INFO GIS. A regression model is then used to evaluate the impacts of these physical characteristics on the estimated economic values of buffers. The study is conducted in Goodwater Creek watershed, Missouri. The results show the estimated economic value of buffers is significantly affected by some soil properties, stream length, and cropland percentage in watershed and can be used to improve the effectiveness of riparian buffers at watershed and regional levels.     

利用Excel软件做统计描述和方差分析的方法

对数据做统计描述和方差分析的方法很多,通过电子表格Excel软件进行统计描述和方差分析,为研究者提供了方便快捷的分析手段．Excel软件对于非统计专业人员的确是一个易学、易用、高效的好帮手．图7,表1,参5．     

Organochlorine pesticides in soils around Guanting Reservoir,China

Fifty-six representative samples of topsoil were collected around Guanting Reservoir, which is an important water source for Beijing. Concentrations of the insecticides HCH, DDT, and their metabolites were quantified by use of gas chromatography (GC) with electron capture detection (ECD). Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) are still present in surface soils in the Guanting area. DDT accounts for about 93% of the total OCP content. Concentrations of α/γ, β/γ, and DDT/DDE are the result not only of historical use, but also of more recent depositions. Statistical analyses, including principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA), revealed associations between concentrations of OCPs and major soil characteristics. Geographical information system (GIS) technology was used to develop maps of the distributions of OCP concentrations. The areas of greatest contamination were primarily in the central part of the study area and were correlated with greater population density, heavier traffic, and more industrial activity.