PROJECTED EFFECTS OF ENERGY POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL WATER USE AND IRRIGATION1

ABSTRACT: A national and interregional programming model was used in projecting the impacts of alternative energy policies and prices on agricultural production, land use, and irrigation. The alternatives analyzed include (a) natural gas deregulation, (b) natural gas curtailment, (c) doubled energy prices, and (d) tripled energy prices. These alternatives are compared with a base alternative where prices and conditions are at normal levels. Restraints in the model control availability of water, land, nitrogen fertilizers, and energy. Water production functions were used to adjust water use to conform with projected energy prices and policies. Natural gas curtailment would have the largest effect on nitrogen use on irrigated land. Values or shadow prices for lands that remains in irrigation would increase under all of the alternatives because of reduced supply. Increased energy prices generally would increase use of surface water for irrigation and reduce use of ground water due to higher pumping costs. Reductions of 50 percent or more in ground water use would occur in the South Central and Western regions of the United States. Water supply prices increase under all of the alternatives; with the amount varying by regions and the policy or price situation.     

A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.     

脉动风速功率谱与随机Fourier幅值谱的关系研究

功率谱密度函数是随机过程在频域内的重要特征量,但由于其本质上是平稳过程的频域数值特征,致使其很难全面反映原始随机过程的概率信息,这就需要从更本源的意义上考察随机过程。本文试图从Fourier随机函数的角度反映随机过程,将经典的功率谱密度函数中具有物理意义的可测变量看作随机变量,利用功率谱与Fourier幅值谱的关系,定义了随机Fourier幅值谱;以Davenport谱为例,证实当地面粗糙度服从对数正态分布、10m高度基本风速服从极值Ⅰ型分布时,可通过功率谱构造具有物理意义的随机Fourier幅值谱。通过实测风速Fourier谱与随机Fourier幅值谱的比较,证明随机Fourier幅值谱的概念具有合理性。     

Stochastic bycatch, informational asymmetry, and discarding

The existing literature (i) examines bycatch and discard behavior in a static framework and (ii) treats bycatch as a deterministic process uniform across vessels. Using a dynamic representative agent model in a two-stock resource, this paper explores strategic interactions between a social planner and two groups of harvesters, one of which imposes a stochastic “technological externality” (bycatch) on the other. In addition to limitations on entry and the number of trips taken in each industry, three bycatch control instruments are compared to the unconstrained case: taxes, trip limits, and value-based quotas. Implementation and enforcement costs aside, taxes dominate both types of quota, and value limits outperform trip limits by eliminating one type of discarding. In simulations, relative performance depends upon variance in the bycatch process, differences in the ex vessel prices of stocks, relative efficiency of the harvester types, and fixed costs on the trip and industry margins.     

Using Modeling to Improve Monitoring of Structured Populations: Are We Collecting the Right Data?

Abstract:  Population monitoring is central to most demographic studies and conservation efforts, but it may not always be directed at the most appropriate life stage. We used stochastic simulation modeling to evaluate the effectiveness of a monitoring program for a well-studied population of Eastern Imperial Eagles ( Aquila heliaca ) in Kazakhstan. Specifically, we asked whether the most appropriate data were being collected to understand system state and population dynamics. Our models were parameterized with data collected over the course of 25 years of study of this population. We used the models to conduct simulation experiments to evaluate relationships between monitored or potentially monitored parameters and the demographic variables of interest—population size ( N ) and population growth (λ). Static analyses showed that traditional territory-based monitoring was a poor indicator of eagle population size and growth and that monitoring survivorship would provide more information about these parameters. Nevertheless, these same traditionally monitored territory-based parameters had greater power to detect long-term changes in population size than did survivorship or population structure. Regardless of the taxa considered, threats can have immediate impacts on population size and growth or longer-term impacts on population dynamics. Prudently designed monitoring programs for any species will detect the demographic effects of both types of threats.     

边境贸易发展的环境影响预测及其调控研究——以满洲里市为例

边镜贸易作为我国作为开放的重要组成部分，进展显著。本文在概述我国边境贸易发展所产生的环境问题的基础上，以我国最大的陆边口岸－－满州里市为例，运用灰色预测，动态规划等方法探讨边境贸易与环境保护协调发展的途径。     

城市河段污染控制灰色动态规划的应用

本文探讨了含灰数的城市河段污染控制的灰色动态规划的理论与方法。通过分析城市河段污染控制系统的广义不确定性，将灰数表征这些不确定性，建立了描述城市河段水污染控制的灰色动态规划中广义不确定性的灰数运算、灰数大小的比较及灰动态规划的初步理论和求解方法，通过对淮河蚌埠河段有机污染控制实例研究，说明了水污染控制灰色动态规划问题研究意义和求解方法的实用性。     

污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论的研究与发展

综述了污水处理工艺系统优化设计理论研究的发展历史 ,分析总结了优化设计模型研究的发展规律以及需要解决的关键性问题 ;详细介绍了几个具有典型代表性的非线性系统优化模型的结构及寻优方法 ;从 6个特征方面横向比较了部分优化数学模型的研究成果 ;结合国内研究动态提出了对该领域研究前景的展望     

线性规划方法在区域发展规划环境影响评价中的应用

文章介绍了区域产业规模最优化发展的线性规划模型,解释了模型的具体含义并给出了模型中各参数的确定依据和方法,并在某区域发展规划环境影响评价中进行了应用。通过该模型得出的最优方案与规划方案的对比,可以评价规划方案的环境合理性,同时也可为区域产业发展提出调整建议,实现区域经济效益和环境效益的统一,最终实现区域的可持续发展。