Predicting future quantities of obsolete household appliances in Nanjing by a stock-based model

China has become one of the largest producers of obsolete household appliances (HAs) in the world. However, information on discarded HAs in China is deficient owing to the unavailability of reliable data. The estimation of future obsolete streams is a crucial issue for the establishment of efficient waste collection and recycling systems. The present study describes a prediction model to forecast future obsolete HAs on the basis of information of in-use stocks of HAs in households. The model was applied to a forecasting analysis of quantities of obsolete HAs from 2009 to 2050 in Nanjing, China. The results show that a total of about 76 million units (2.8 million tonnes) of obsolete HAs will be generated in Nanjing over the next 40 years. Discarded air conditioners, color TV sets, and personal computers will be the major contributors. The total discarded amount of major kinds of HAs will increase from nearly 1.0 million units in 2009 to a maximum of 2.1 million units in 2040, and then decrease slightly to 2.0 million units in 2050. Urban households will generate significantly more obsolete HAs (about 56 million units) than rural households, due to the difference in their HA possession levels. The results of this study should help the Nanjing municipality to develop the collection and recycling systems and facilities needed for the obsolete HAs generated in the future. From a methodological perspective, the stock-based model provides a suitable tool to predict the generation of discarded HAs in the future.     

弹药公路运输安全影响因素分析及防护

交通安全是弹药运输安全的前提条件.分析交通系统的构成要素,指出驾驶员是影响交通安全的核心因素.根据事故致因理论建立了交通安全事故模型.分析了弹药运输环境条件对弹药运输安全的影响,并提出研究运行速度与运输冲击振动环境变化的关系.最后,提出了弹药公路运输安全的3点防护对策.     

大口径未爆弹销毁安全距离研究

为保证大口径未爆弹销毁作业中人员的安全,从理论上研究了未爆弹销毁安全距离。根据破片的理论初速、破片杀伤判据、杀伤破片的飞散距离,得到防破片安全距离的计算公式;根据冲击波理论,得到防冲击波安全距离的计算公式;根据防破片安全距离和防冲击波安全距离,从理论上确定未爆弹销毁时的警戒安全距离和防护掩体设置距离。以某大口径未爆弹为例进行实例分析,确定了其相应的警戒安全距离和防护掩体设置距离。研究结果表明:该未爆弹销毁时警戒安全距离主要考虑破片,与GJB5120—2002的结果进行比较,认为GJB5120—2002的结果过于保守。     

The normalisation of terror: the response of Israel's stock market to long periods of terrorism

Man‐made disasters such as acts of terrorism may affect a society's resiliency and sensitivity to prolonged physical and psychological stress. The Israeli Tel Aviv stock market TA‐100 Index was used as an indicator of reactivity to suicide terror bombings. After accounting for factors such as world market changes and attack severity and intensity, the analysis reveals that although Israel's financial base remained sensitive to each act of terror across the entire period of the Second Intifada (2000–06), sustained psychological resilience was indicated with no apparent overall market shift. In other words, we saw a ‘normalisation of terror’ following an extended period of continued suicide bombings. The results suggest that investors responded to less transitory global market forces, indicating sustained resilience and long‐term market confidence. Future studies directly measuring investor expectations and reactions to man‐made disasters, such as terrorism, are warranted.     

Monitoring perchlorate exposure and thyroid hormone status among raccoons inhabiting a perchlorate-contaminated site

Perchlorate is a water soluble anion that is readily accumulated in vegetation. It inhibits uptake of iodide into thyroid gland tissue, thereby reducing production of thyroid hormones. Potential raccoon food items including berries, fish, and vegetation collected at a contaminated site contained quantifiable concentrations of perchlorate as determined by ion chromatography. Therefore, we monitored resident raccoons for exposure to perchlorate by examining plasma perchlorate and thyroid hormone concentrations. Resulting analytical data failed to demonstrate perchlorate exposure among raccoons that likely consumed food items collected along perchlorate-contaminated water bodies. There were no correlations between triiodothyronine or thyroxine and thyroid stimulating hormone concentrations, but triiodothyronine concentrations in raccoon plasma were significantly higher in 2000 than in 2001 (p = 0.0081). These data suggest that natural attenuation and remedial efforts initiated in January of 2001 may have reduced perchlorate exposure among raccoons inhabiting this site from 2000 to 2001. Temporal, spatial, and analytical factors limited our ability to quantify exposure among raccoons, however, our data do not indicate that raccoons currently inhabiting this site are at risk for significant exposure to perchlorate and subsequent effects.     

农业合作生产对华北农牧交错区水资源存量和经济效益的影响

针对华北农牧交错区错季蔬菜生产对水资源消耗的争议,通过试验和调查研究相结合的方法,研究了农业“生产－消费”合作生产背景下区域发展错季蔬菜的耗水效果及其对农民收入、水资源存量的影响。结果表明,错季蔬菜生产田间耗水量为农区粮食作物的31.3%~93.3%,而水资源价值为农区粮食作物的4.2~10.7倍;与区域内粮油作物生产相比,错季蔬菜生产少耗水330~754m³/hm²,且其水资源价值为粮油作物的4.0~13.9倍。通过实施粮－菜交换的市场农业战略,区域能用0.175~0.196m³的水交易获得外区域1 m³的水资源,并且实现了研究区用0.93hm²的菜地解决发展错季蔬菜前需要6.9~13.8hm²耕地才能解决的粮食问题。调查表明,通过高效地输出水资源,区域农民收入仅蔬菜一项比全国同期农村人均收入高出了23%。故华北农牧交错区发展错季蔬菜生产是节约和扩大本区域的水资源存量,促进农村脱贫致富、自我发展的有效途径。     

城市生活垃圾填埋场的物质存量特征及其环境影响:以粤港澳大湾区为例

填埋场中的生活垃圾成分复杂,即使在封场后其存量垃圾仍将持续产生温室气体、恶臭、地下水污染等环境问题,是城市生态环境修复的重点领域之一.生活垃圾填埋场物质存量、组成成分和理化特征是掌握其潜在环境影响的关键.但是目前关于填埋场物质存量及其环境影响的研究还不多见.本研究以我国城市化程度最高、人口最为密集的粤港澳大湾区城市群为例,基于国内外报道的科技信息和统计数据,对11个城市的生活垃圾产生量、处理量、组成成分、填埋场存量及关键元素碳存量进行分析.结果表明:①粤港澳大湾区2017年生活垃圾产生量为26. 4 Tg,平均每年增长0. 8 Tg,其中卫生填埋处置占58. 9%;②总生活垃圾填埋处置量为230. 1 Tg,其中食物、塑料和纸类垃圾的累计填埋处置量最多,分别为109. 6、38. 9和29. 6 Tg;③2001～2017年,大湾区城市生活垃圾填埋场总碳输入量为50. 0 Tg,通过填埋气排放的碳为7. 1 Tg,通过渗滤液排放的碳为1. 5 Tg,累积碳存量为41. 4 Tg.本研究可为研究城市生活垃圾填埋场的环境影响提供基础数据,为大湾区城市生态环境修复提供科学依据.     

薇甘菊入侵对深圳湾红树林生态系统碳储量的影响

外来植物入侵对生态系统碳过程的影响已经成为入侵生态学研究的热点问题。采用比较研究的方法分析了薇甘菊（MikaniamicranthaH．B．K．）入侵对深圳湾红树林生态系统碳储量的影响,分别设置红树林（Kandelia candel）群落、红树林．薇甘菊群落、薇甘菊群落以及光滩等样地,采集植被、凋落物和土壤剖面样品,分析生态系统各组分的碳储量变化。结果表明,薇甘菊入侵对红树林生态系统碳储量有着显著的影响,碳储量从未被入侵下215．73tC／hm^2减少到轻、高度入侵下的197．56tC／hm2和166．70tC／hm2,分别减少8．42％和22．72％。其中植被和土壤碳储量显著减少,凋落物碳储量显著增加。薇甘菊入侵一方面导致红树林枯萎,减少植被生物量,增加凋落物量,另一方面促进了土壤微生物活动,使土壤有机碳分解释放,降低土壤碳储量。薇甘菊入侵后红树林碳储量的降低将大大削弱生态系统的碳汇功能。     

装药结构热安全性试验方法及其特点分析

目的 在装药结构的热安全性试验时选择合理的加热方法.方法 从燃料、加热速率、温度范围、温度可控性、温区可控性、对试件影响等方面对开放油池火烧、可控喷射火烧、红外辐射灯阵、电加热带、电加热箱等常用的加热方式进行对比分析.结果 对于快烤加载,红外辐射灯阵兼具开放油池火烧和可控喷射火烧的优势,能够实现温度为800～1200℃...     

制导弹药火工元件加速寿命试验技术研究

准确判定组件的剩余寿命是制导弹药维修工作的重要组成部分。针对制导弹药火工元件的特点,分析了加速寿命试验的类型、加速应力、寿命分布和加速系数;研究了试验中的应力水平、样本选取和失效判定等问题;探讨了基于线性无偏估计的数据处理方法。该试验方法也适用于制导弹药其他组件的寿命预测。