基于SWMM与ArcGIS的城市内涝灾害风险评估研究 ——以南浦岛为例

城市内涝对城市基础设施造成极大损害且危及市民人身财产安全,需要通过科学评估手段对城市内涝进行风险评估,是防灾减灾工作中的重要一环.以SWMM模拟四种不同设计雨情下广州市南浦岛内的积水状况,利用ArcGIS进行数据分析、功能优化及专题图制作,分析致灾因子和受灾区域性质,结合相关规范建立风险评估体系,通过分析危险性和敏感性对南浦岛主排水管网设计工程的风险评估.利用插值分析得到与实际地形地貌相吻合的灾害风险等级分布图,为防灾减灾提供了决策依据.     

雅砻江中游老里沟坡面型泥石流成因机制及危险度评价

坡面泥石流是山地分布最广,出现频率最高的灾害现象。基于野外现场调查及室内实验分析,阐述了老里沟坡面型泥石流的基本特征及形成机制,并结合泥石流动力特征参数进行了危险度评价。研究结果表明:滑坡体上坡面侵蚀沟道发育,为坡面型泥石流的形成提供了强有力的条件;降雨是诱发老里沟坡面流的主要因素;老里沟泥石流类型为高中频、小规模、粘性、暴雨型泥石流,属于中度危险泥石流沟。     

Examining strategic sustainability plans and smart-growth land-use measures in California cities

Given many potential obstacles, what types of strategic plans and measures for climate protection and/or energy sustainability are more likely than others to be adopted by cities? What are the key internal and external obstacles to adopting and implementing these plans and measures? Based on data obtained from a survey conducted from 2010 to 2011 and other sources, this paper develops a framework derived from political contracting theory and strategic orientation literature to examine how public management obstacles, socio-economic factors, and political factors influence a city's likelihood of having strategic energy sustainability plans and measures in place. Moreover, this paper finds that many California cities remain reluctant to require residents and businesses to comply with more challenging sustainability measures, such as smart-growth land-use practices, and that those cities with a strategic energy sustainability plan already in place tend to be more willing to adopt smart-growth land-use measures.     

水生生物对三唑磷的物种敏感度分布研究

针对水环境中日益严重的有机磷农药污染问题,选择广泛使用的三唑磷作为研究对象,利用其对水生生态系统中不同营养层次生物物种的半数效应浓度(median effective concentration, EC₅₀),建立了基于对数-逻辑斯蒂分布的水生生物物种敏感度分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)模型,并采用概率图和吻合度检验方法对该模型进行了检验和评价.结果表明,水生生物对三唑磷的 SSD 服从对数-逻辑斯蒂分布,其参数为 α=-0.4788±0.2381,β=0.7546±0.1078.基于该 SSD 模型,获得三唑磷的 5% 危害浓度(hazardous concentration for 5% of the species, HC₅)值为 1.992×10^-3 mg/L,并推导出三唑磷的最大浓度基准值(criteria maximum concentration, CMC)值为 9.96×10^-4 mg/L.对 HC₅、CMC 与单一物种的安全浓度的比较研究指出,基于 SSD 方法制定环境质量标准更为严格,也更接近于真实的生态环境.另外,根据渤海莱州湾海域中三唑磷的监测数据,预测了其对物种的潜在影响比例(potentially affected fraction, PAF)为 0.36%,对该水域生态环境的影响处于较低风险水平.     

结冰条件下直升机飞行风险模糊综合评估

目的提高结冰条件下直升机的飞行安全,对飞行风险进行评估。方法基于模糊综合评估方法,综合考虑结冰气象条件、防/除冰系统状态和飞行员经验的影响,建立飞行风险评估方法。通过算例对建立的飞行风险评估方法进行了验证分析。结果基于结冰强度确定了飞行风险4级划分方法,利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各因素的权重,采用正态分布隶属函数建立评估矩阵,对权重集和评估矩阵进行加权平均运算,并对评估结果向量进行处理以给出最终的风险等级。结论该方法具有科学性和实用性。     

胜利油田区水体中环境雌激素生态风险评估

为了评价胜利油田石油开采对水体中雌激素生态风险。首先,检测胜利油田区26个样品中盐度、总氮、总磷、余氯、COD、石油烃类物质含量6个常规水质指标,结果发现水体中总氮及COD的含量均值达到5.2mg/L及64mg/L,这表明该区域有机污染物及富营养化程度比较严重。其次,利用人雌激素受体基因酵母干粉法检测了样品中环境雌激素含量,结果分析发现不同采样点间的雌激素污染水平不同,雌激素含量与水质指标间无显著相关性。样品中雌激素含量范围0.046-0.072ng/L,均值为0.062ng/L,雌激素水平相对较低,这证实胜利油田水体存在环境雌激素生态风险值也较低。     

水环境污染事故的危害指数评价与计算方法

针对频发的突发性水污染事故,阐述了在风险预警系统建立的基础上,如何依据水体中污染物迁移转化基本方程进行合理简化和数学推导,得出用于鉴别环境危害状态、表征环境危害程度、描述事故危害等级、估算事故危害区范围和危害时间的风险评估模式。该模式可为环境风险管理以及突发性环境污染应急预案的制定提供科学依据。     

夏季渤海表层沉积物中壬基酚和双酚A的分布特征与潜在生态风险

分析了渤海表层沉积物中壬基酚和双酚A的分布特征。结果表明,壬基酚的含量介于(3.16～13.6)×10-9(dw),高值区出现在渤海湾近岸,其次为辽东半岛近岸和莱州湾近岸,其它海区的含量均低于7.50×10-9(dw),且变化幅度较小。渤海沉积物中的双酚A含量普遍较低,介于(ND～1.44)×10-9(dw),高值区出现在辽东湾近岸。壬基酚和双酚A的含量分布受到陆源输入、环流体系及沉积环境等因素的共同影响。本文还讨论了渤海中壬基酚和双酚A的潜在生态风险。     

饮用水氯消毒副产物控制技术研究进展

依据新颁布的《生活饮用水卫生标准》对饮用水氯消毒副产物控制技术进行了具体的论述,介绍了替代消毒剂、前体物去除和副产物去除等控制技术的应用效果和局限性,分析了安全高效的多级屏障组合消毒工艺在控制消毒副产物中的应用前景。     

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach ( [Van Koningsveld et al., 2005] and [Van Koningsveld et al., 2007] ) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.