《中国现代化报告2007——生态现代化研究》述评

《中国现代化报告2007——生态现代化研究》回顾了世界生态现代化的历程，总结了经验，介绍了世界生态现代化的基本原理，分析并评价世界各国生态现代化的水平，进而提出中国生态现代化的战略思考。这个研究报告指出了人类社会发展的方向一一生态现代化，为此我国必须进一步落实科学发展观，加快实施可持续发展战略，充分发挥后发优势，努力实现跨越式发展，走综合生态现代化的道路。     

面向2020年我国安全生产的若干战略问题思考

本文简要论述了我国现代化进程中安全生产工作的现状、发展趋势和面临的主要问题;围绕2020年实现全国安全生产状况根本性好转,安全生产水平达到或接近世界中等发达国家水平的中长期目标,分析探讨了安全专业人才、科技兴安、安全生产标准、安全培训、安全文化、中小企业安全生产与职业危害预防、土地使用安全规划与厂房选址安全、农业生产安全、公共安全与应急救援保障体系建设等若干战略问题。     

Small cetacean bycatch as estimated from stranding schemes: The common dolphin case in the northeast Atlantic

Death in fishing gear of non-target species (called ‘bycatch’) is a major concern for marine wildlife, and mostly worrying for long-lived species like cetaceans, considering their demographic characteristics (slow population growth rates and low fecundity). In European waters, cetaceans are highly impacted by this phenomenon. Under the Common Fishery Policy, the EC 812/2004 regulation constitutes a legal frame for bycatch monitoring on 5–10% of fishing vessels >15 m. The aim of this work was to compare parameters and bycatch estimates of common dolphins (Delphinus delphis) provided by observer programmes in France and UK national reports and those inferred from stranding data, through two approaches. Bycatch was estimated from stranding data, first by correcting effectives from drift conditions (using a drift prediction model) and then by estimating the probability of being buoyant. Observer programmes on fishing vessels allowed us to identify the specificity of the interaction between common dolphins and fishing gear, and provided low estimates of annual bycaught animals (around 550 animals year⁻¹). However, observer programmes are hindered by logistical and administrative constraints, and the sampling scheme seems to be poorly designed for the detection of marine mammal bycatches. The analyses of strandings by considering drift conditions highlighted areas with high levels of interactions between common dolphins and fisheries. Since 1997, the highest densities of bycaught dolphins at sea were located in the southern part of the continental shelf and slope of the Bay of Biscay. Bycatch numbers inferred from strandings suggested very high levels, ranging from 3650 dolphins year⁻¹ [2250–7000] to 4700 [3850–5750] dolphins year⁻¹, depending on methodological choices. The main advantage of stranding data is its large spatial scale, cutting across administrative boundaries. Diverging estimates between observer programmes and stranding interpretation can set very different management consequences: observer programmes suggest a sustainable situation for common dolphins, whereas estimates based on strandings highlight a very worrying and unsustainable process.     

Effectiveness of Voluntary Conservation Agreements: Case Study of Endangered Whales and Commercial Whale Watching

Abstract: The use of voluntary approaches to achieve conservation goals is becoming increasingly popular. Nevertheless, few researchers have quantitatively evaluated their efficacy. In 1998 industry, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations established a voluntary conservation program for whale watching in the northeast region of the United States, with the intent to avoid collisions with and harassment of endangered whales by commercial and recreational whale‐watching vessels. One important aspect of the program was the establishment of 3 speed zones within specific distances of whales. We wanted to determine the level of compliance with this aspect of the program to gauge its efficacy and gain insights into the effectiveness of voluntary measures as a conservation tool. Inconspicuous observers accompanied 46 commercial whale‐watching trips from 12 companies in 2003 (n= 35) and 2004 (n= 11). During each trip, vessel position and speed were collected at 5‐second intervals with a GPS receiver. Binoculars with internal laser rangefinders and digital compasses were used to record range and bearing to sighted whales. We mapped whale locations with ArcGIS. We created speed‐zone buffers around sighted whales and overlaid them with vessel‐track and speed data to evaluate compliance. Speeds in excess of those recommended by the program were considered noncompliant. We judged the magnitude of noncompliance by comparing a vessel's maximum speed within a zone to its maximum recorded trip speed. The level of noncompliance was high (mean 0.78; company range 0.74–0.88), some companies were more compliant than others (p= 0.02), noncompliance was significantly higher in zones farther from whales (p < 0.001), and operators approached the maximum speed capabilities of their vessel in all zones. The voluntary conservation program did not achieve the goal of substantially limiting vessel speed near whales. Our results support the need for conservation programs to have quantifiable metrics and frequent evaluation to ensure efficacy.     

核设施营运单位邻避问题应对策略研究

邻避问题激发的群体性事件是当前危险设施选址面临的主要问题,而核设施则是邻避设施中负外部性等级较高的一类设施.通过分析各行业邻避问题的九因素分析框架引入核设施邻避问题的研究,并结合国内外核行业和值得借鉴的非核行业典型案例进行分析,发现了影响邻避问题的核心要素包括程序公正、企业与政府公众形象、行业污名化倾向和补偿不合理等方面内容.核设施运营单位应在这些方面制定针对性策略和措施以减小邻避问题对核行业发展的影响.     

中国农业可持续发展的策略措施

中国农业经历了多种策略阶段,可持续发展策略是新近出现的最先进、最适合现在和将来农业发展的策略。新策略带有系统性原理,其实质是发展与生态环境保护协调的农业。因此,可持续发展措施应同时重视解决农业经济发展与生态环境保护两方面的问题。据此,本文提出了六项措施。     

Life-cycle phosphorus use efficiency of the farming system in Anhui Province,Central China

The rapid increase of phosphorus (P) use in farming has raised concerns regarding its conservation and environmental impact. Increasing the P use efficiency (PUE) is an approach to mitigating these adverse impacts. In this study, we applied substance flow analysis (SFA) to establish a life-cycle P use efficiency model to determine the life-cycle PUE of the farming system used in Anhui Province in 2011, which is typical of the agriculture practiced in central China. Based on this model, the P flows and PUEs of five subsystems were identified and quantified: crop farming, crop processing, livestock breeding, rural living, and urban living. The three largest P flows were found in the crop farming and livestock breeding subsystems; it can therefore be concluded that these subsystems have substantial impacts on the entire farming system. In contrast, the PUEs of crop farming, rural consumption, and livestock breeding subsystems presented the three lowest PUEs (58.79%, 71.75%, and 76.65%, respectively). These results were also consistent with the finding that the greatest P losses occurred in crop farming and livestock breeding. Consequently, the study proposes that great potential exists for increasing PUEs in the farming system of Anhui, and several of the most promising measures could be combined for improving PUEs. Finally, the study assesses data quality and presents a sensitivity analysis for use in interpreting the results. The study also shows that improving PUE and decreasing P losses in farming systems through improved nutrient management must be considered an important issue, and this study represents valuable experience in resource conservation and agricultural development in China.     

我国小型矿山的可持续发展战略

目前 ,我国小型矿山普遍存在着缺乏规划、设备简陋、工艺落后、管理和技术水平低、安全保障条件差、运销不畅以及职工素质低等问题 ,并由此造成的浪费资源、污染环境十分严重。当前 ,经济建设中 95%的能源和 80 %的原料依赖矿产资源供给 ,矿产资源探明的储量已显不足。进入 2 1世纪后 ,保证经济可持续发展的矿产资源更加不足 ,尤其是小型矿山要在 2 1世纪保持可持续发展成为一项非常艰巨的任务。     

利用草业资源发展草食家畜的战略地位与对策

本文论述了我国耕地资源逐年减少,未来粮食生产不足与人口迅速增长、羊毛短缺与日益发展的毛纺工业急需,每年要花大量外汇进口羊毛的严峻国情,以及人民生活达“小康”要求改变食物组成和增加动物性营养,迫切需要利用我国丰富的草业资源优势,大力发展草食家畜的战略地位,并提出了切合我国实际的七条发展对策。