基于风险矩阵和LOPA的风险评价系统在油气管道的应用研究

为规范企业风险管理,在分析国内外各种先进风险管理技术的基础上,对风险矩阵法和保护层分析法(LOPA)进行了优化组合,开发了具有特色的组合风险评价方法,形成了具有鲜明特色的风险评价系统.风险评价系统可实现油气管道系统危害因素的系统识别、多层评价、分级管理、有序控制及监控.该风险评价系统在西部管道公司的长输油气管道系统得到了应用,实践效果表明,该风险评价系统能够规范公司风险管理工作,显著提升公司风险管理水平.     

海底地下水排放对南黄海沿岸海水细菌群落结构的影响

在南黄海沿岸岸滩采集海水样品,将同位素地球化学与分子生物学技术相结合,探讨海底地下水排放(submarine groundwater discharge, SGD)对沿岸海水微生物群落结构的影响.结果表明,南黄海沿岸水体微生物优势类群为变形菌门、放线菌门、拟杆菌门、蓝细菌门、疣微菌门、厚壁菌门等.海水中较高浓度的镭同位素活度极有可能是由近岸海底地下水排放过程导致.沿岸海水中的²²⁴Ra活度与营养盐浓度、微生物群落的多样性及丰富度具有相对同步的变化规律.溶解氧对海水中的细菌群落结构具有显著影响(p<0.05),海底地下水排放输入的高浓度溶解无机氮、溶解硅酸盐可能是影响沿岸海水中细菌群落结构特征的主要因素之一.本研究表明,海底地下水排放对沿岸微生物群落结构的影响是不可忽视的.     

管土刚度对地下管线和地表沉降的影响分析及简易预测方法研究

在地层沉降计算理论基础上,通过定义新的管土刚度系数,以打靶法为手段,计算分析管线的沉降变形趋势,从管线抵抗地层沉降变形的效果可通过增加隧道埋深来体现这一思想出发,找到该系数与假想隧道埋深的相互对应关系,进而建立一套地下管线沉降和地表沉降的简易预测公式。通过与数值解的对比分析,进一步验证了其准确性和合理性。该公式计算量小、模型简单,应用范围较为广泛,可用于计算考虑管土刚度后,管线沉降变形和管线与地层之间的脱空,也可用于计算考虑管线抵抗地层作用后的地表沉降变形。     

Future prediction & estimation of faults occurrences in oil pipelines by using data clustering with time series forecasting

The world of oil pipelines is subjected to serious issues due to occurrences of toxic spills, explosions and deformations like particle deposition, corrosions and cracks due to the contact of oil particles with the pipeline surface. Hence, the structural integrity of these pipelines is of great interest due to the probable environmental, infrastructural and financial losses in case of structural failure. Based on the existing technology, it is difficult to analyze the risks at the initial stage, since traditional methods are only appropriate for static accident analyses. Nevertheless, most of these models have used corrosion features alone to assess the condition of pipelines. To sort out the above problem in the oil pipelines, fault identification and prediction methods based on K-means clustering and Time-series forecasting incorporated with linear regression algorithm using multiple pressure data are proposed in this paper. The real-time validation of the proposed technique is validated using a scaled-down experimental hardware lab setup resembling characteristics exhibited by onshore unburied pipeline in India. In the proposed work, crack and blockages are identified by taking pressure rise and pressure drop inferred from two cluster assignment. The obtained numerical results from K-means clustering unveils that maximum datasets accumulated range of multiple pressures are within 16.147–10.638 kg/cm², 14.922–12.1674 kg/cm², 2.7645–1.2063 kg/cm² correspondingly. Hence by this final cluster center data, inspection engineers able to estimate the normal and abnormal performance of oil transportation in a simple-robust manner. The developed forecast model successfully predicts future fault occurrences rate followed by dissimilarity rate from clustering results holds the validity of 91.9% when applied to the historical pressure datasets. The models are expected to help pipeline operators without complex computation processing to assess and predict the condition of existing oil pipelines and hence prioritize the planning of their inspection and rehabilitation.     

Probabilistic seismic multi-hazard loss estimation of Iran gas trunklines

The location of Iran in addition to holding the world's second-largest gas reserves, makes this country an important transporter of natural gas in the world. Moreover, Iran is a country that suffers from hazards associated with frequent destructive earthquakes, which can severely damage buried gas transmission networks, different losses correspond to individuals, social, environmental, and the property is expected. Therefore, it is essential to identify potential seismic hazards and assess their risk will be induced to the country. This paper is performing a comprehensive probabilistic loss assessment of the entire network of the Iran Gas Trunklines (IGAT) due to seismic multi-hazard failure using GIS-based analyses and the HAZUS methodology proposed by FEMA. In the current study, all kinds of seismic hazards are considered for analyzing the IGAT as a spatially-distributed infrastructure for being exhaustive. As a result, seismic hazard maps, repair rate maps, the IGAT expected damage state map, and the IGAT economic loss map are presented. As an example of the outputs of this study, the economic loss of the IGAT is predicted by up to 380 US dollars per segment, which is related to the most vulnerable segments of the pipelines. The outputs of the current research not only can help to plan for mitigating the probable seismic losses but also can help anyone, who are involved in designing and developing new gas transmission lines, to design new trunklines with a more degree of safety.     

Societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines based on incident data from the United States

A significant number of pipeline operators use pipeline integrity management (PIM) to improve pipeline safety and reliability. Risk assessment is a critical step in PIM, because it determines the necessity of conducting the following steps in PIM for certain pipelines. Risk acceptance criteria are required in the process of risk assessment. Individual risk and societal risk are most frequently adopted as the two indicators of the risk acceptance criteria. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, quantitative societal risk acceptance criteria, especially for gas distribution pipelines, do not exit. The aim of this paper is to establish the societal risk acceptance criteria for gas distribution pipelines. Hence, FN curves were established using historical incident data from 2002 to 2017 provided by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). Linear regression and the ALARP principle are used in evaluating the limits of the negligible line and intolerable line to obtain a graphical societal risk acceptance criterion for gas distribution pipelines. A line having a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 8.413 × 10⁻⁷) is proposed as the negligible line. Further, the intolerable line has a slope of −1.224, and an anchor point of (1, 2.524 × 10⁻⁶). Both the negligible risk and the intolerable risk for the gas distribution pipeline are lower than the current societal risk acceptance criteria for hazardous installations. The reasons for these relatively lower risk acceptance criteria are discussed.     

海底管道在位状态调查实践

根据调查设备搭载器的不同,将海底管道在位状态调查方法归为船载、自治水下机器人搭载(AUV 搭载)和无人遥控潜水器搭载(ROV搭载)三类;在浅水段采用船载调查,在深水段采用AUV搭载调查,在此基础上进行重点关注区域筛选,开展ROV调查,最后进行整体评价和分析对比,这种^“(船载/AUV)+ROV^”组合模式很好地实现了多种调查方法的优势互补。实际上,采用AUV搭载进行海底管道在位状态调查在国内业界尚属首次。调查所取得的管道位置、埋深、周边障碍物的分布以及管道人工处理情况等成果,为后期开展管道维护工作提供了重要的基础数据。此次成功实践可为以后从浅水到深水的管道在位状态调查提供经验和借鉴。     

气田输水管道失效浅析及对策

随着气田开发至中晚期,气田水量不断增大,若不能及时有效处理将严重制约气田的开发,目前气田水处理普遍采取汽车和管道两种方式运输至回注站回注。文章通过对气田水运输中管道失效的表现形式、失效原因进行分析,提出管道失效的解决办法及对策,以确保气田水输送管道长效、稳定运行和气田水的正常运输,保障气田的有序开发。     

水体穿越输油管道腐蚀检测及泄漏后果模拟

为了解管道腐蚀状况,对管道所处的土壤环境进行了分析,对管道外防腐层进行了土壤腐蚀性检测、外防腐层检测,对管道的内腐蚀状况以及管道腐蚀破坏后造成的泄漏后果进行了模拟分析。结果表明:管道发生腐蚀的风险较大,为此对管道防腐工作提出了建议。     

长输管道线路设计优化与环境保护

长输管道建设具有点多、线长、面广的特点,管道沿线会经过各类环境敏感区域,优化管道的线路工程设计可以达到良好的环境保护效果。文章分别从生态、地表水、地下水、大气、噪声、固体废物及环境风险等方面出发,探讨线路工程设计中的环境保护问题,提出相关的保护和防范措施,以达到管道建设和环境保护的和谐发展。