江苏数字地震台网地震定位能力分析

依据江苏数字地震台网的几何布局 ,对区域上设定的不同震级和震源位置的可能事件 ,作了以下两点考虑。 (1)根据不同震级地震的监测范围 ,确定了相应的定位子台组合。 (2 )对同一地震事件 ,考虑到震相分析P震相和S震相测量精度上的差异 ,引入了不同的标准误差σP 和σS。在此基础上 ,通过模拟地震波理论走时和对走时矩阵的奇异值分解方法 ,计算了估计震源参数标准误差的参量空间协方差矩阵值 ,给出了标准误差理论值等值线图 ,用此方法讨论分析了江苏数字地震台网的地震定位能力。     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Optimal Expansion Strategy for a Sewer System under Uncertainty

Because of fast urban sprawl, land use competition, and the gap in available funds and needed funds, municipal decision makers and planners are looking for more cost-effective and sustainable ways to improve their sewer infrastructure systems. The dominant approaches have turned to planning the sanitary sewer systems within a regional context, while the decentralized and on-site/cluster wastewater systems have not overcome the application barriers. But regionalization policy confers uncertainties and risks upon cities while planning for future events. Following the philosophy of smart growth, this paper presents several optimal expansion schemes for a fast-growing city in the US/Mexico borderlands—the city of Pharr in Texas under uncertainty. The waste stream generated in Pharr is divided into three distinct sewer sheds within the city limit, including south region, central region, and north region. The options available include routing the wastewater to a neighboring municipality (i.e., McAllen) for treatment and reuse, expanding the existing wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) in the south sewer shed, and constructing a new WWTP in the north sewer shed. Traditional deterministic least-cost optimization applied in the first stage can provide a cost-effective and technology-based decision without respect to associated uncertainties system wide. As the model is primarily driven by the fees charged for wastewater transfer, sensitivity analysis was emphasized by the inclusion of varying flat-rate fees for adjustable transfer schemes before contracting process that may support the assessment of fiscal benefits to all parties involved. Yet uncertainties might arise from wastewater generation, wastewater reuse, and cost increase in constructing and operating the new wastewater treatment plant simultaneously. When dealing with multiple sources of uncertainty, the grey mixed integer programming (GIP) model, formulated in the second stage, can further allow all sources of uncertainties to propagate throughout the optimization context, simultaneously leading to determine a wealth of optimal decisions within a reasonable range. Both models ran for three 5-year periods beginning in 2005 and ending in 2020. The dynamic outputs of this analysis reflect the systematic concerns about integrative uncertainties within this decision analysis, which enable decision makers and stakeholders to make all-inclusive decisions for sanitary sewer system expansion in an economically growing region.     

Design and evaluation of a local analytic-deliberative process for climate adaptation planning

In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates participant time constraints and preferences.     

Use of an Action‐Selection Framework for Human‐Carnivore Conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Abstract: Human–carnivore conflict is manifested in the death of humans, livestock, and carnivores. The resulting negative local attitudes and retribution killings imperil the future of many endangered carnivores. We tailored existing management tools to create a framework to facilitate the selection of actions to alleviate human–carnivore conflict and applied the framework to the human–tiger conflict in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. We identified potential actions that consider previous management efforts, local knowledge, cost‐effectiveness, fieldwork experience of authors and project staff, previous research on tiger ecology by the authors, and recommendations from human–carnivore conflict studies in other countries. Our framework includes creation of a profile to improve understanding of the nature of the conflict and its underlying causality. Identified actions include deterrents, education, direct tiger management, and response teams. We ranked actions by their potential to reduce conflict and the monetary cost of their implementation. We ranked tiger‐response teams and monitoring problem tigers as the two best actions because both had relatively high impact and cost‐effectiveness. We believe this framework could be used under a wide range of human–wildlife conflict situations because it provides a structured approach to selection of mitigating actions.     

建立城市自然灾害承灾能力指标的思路探讨

本文论述了城市承灾能力的含义，分析了我国城市主要自然灾害以及承文体的类型和致灾因素，探讨了城市承灾能力指标，为城市承灾能力综合评判提供了依据．     

江苏省城市防汛决策支持系统研究

在分析江苏省城市防汛问题的基础上，设计了其防汛决策支持系统；根据江苏省城市洪涝灾情特点研建和选用了适宜的数学模型，该模型可以迅速、可靠和正确地模拟城市雨情、水情、灾情的发展过程和可能后果，为城市防汛决策提供多层次的信息服务和多种支持手段。     

水化前兆观测的探讨和反思

从水文地球化学的角度说明利用水化组分预报地震是可行的 ,并以历次地震的震例说明水化组分具有映震能力 ,进而对映震组分的不灵敏原因作了探讨。并就今后如何利用水化观测手段进行地震预报的分析研究提出几点建议。     

FLOOD STAGE FORECASTING WITH SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES1

ABSTRACT: Machine learning techniques are finding more and more applications in the field of forecasting. A novel regression technique, called Support Vector Machine (SVM), based on the statistical learning theory is explored in this study. SVM is based on the principle of Structural Risk Minimization as opposed to the principle of Empirical Risk Minimization espoused by conventional regression techniques. The flood data at Dhaka, Bangladesh, are used in this study to demonstrate the forecasting capabilities of SVM. The result is compared with that of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based model for one‐lead day to seven‐lead day forecasting. The improvements in maximum predicted water level errors by SVM over ANN for four‐lead day to seven‐lead day are 9.6 cm, 22.6 cm, 4.9 cm and 15.7 cm, respectively. The result shows that the prediction accuracy of SVM is at least as good as and in some cases (particularly at higher lead days) actually better than that of ANN, yet it offers advantages over many of the limitations of ANN, for example in arriving at ANN's optimal network architecture and choosing useful training set. Thus, SVM appears to be a very promising prediction tool.     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.