危险评价第三维矢量的定性分析

危险评价主要针对危险导致事故发生的可能性与后果严重性进行分析,目的是为拧制危险提供决策依据,但现有的评价矢量并不能完全实现这一目的.可控性的提出完善了评价内容,并在控制对象、控制方案、控制时机等多方面为决策者提供参考,提高了危险评价结果的实用性.     

Economic valuation as a tool to support decision-making in strategic green infrastructure planning

Decision-making in spatial planning is often based only on administrative regulations and procedures. This approach does not guarantee an efficient allocation of scarce financial resources. Consequently, the present paper discusses the practical relevance of an approach to incorporate results of economic valuation into strategic spatial planning for the example of green infrastructure. For this, a contingent valuation was conducted at a reference site in Esslingen, Germany. Here, participants of the survey stated their willingness to pay for different green infrastructure investment categories. Build on the survey results, the possible future foci of regional green infrastructure planning are derived and impacts on regional green infrastructure policy for the case of the Neckar region are investigated.     

Application of environmental risk assessment for strategic decision-making in coastal areas: case studies in China

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is a powerful technical tool for analyzing potential and extreme adverse environmental impacts, and has found wide application in supporting decision-making processes over the last two decades. However, to date there has been no interrelated application of ERA to support the processes of strategic decision-making (SDM), especially in coastal areas.

In this paper, we attempt to verify the feasibility of the proposed integrated ERA–SDM approach and its methodology by applying it to two case studies (in Xiamen Bay and Luoyuan Bay) of the principal coastal functional zoning (PCFZ, a kind of SDM and similar to the coastal and marine spatial planning in western). The results show that the integrated ERA–SDM approach could integrate ERA into the entire SDM process, directly support the PCFZ, and avoid or mitigate dire environmental risk that can be introduced by SDM processes.     

碳酸氢钠对短带鞘藻-活性污泥共生体系在城镇污水脱氮除磷中的促进作用

藻菌共生技术在污水处理中具有高效低耗、资源可利用等特点.目前,我国城镇污水厂中进水COD普遍偏低,影响了出水一级A(GB 18918-2002)提标改造中脱氮除磷的效果.在构建短带鞘藻-活性污泥共生体系的基础上,采用补充外加碳源促进其对城镇污水的脱氮除磷效果.结果表明,短带鞘藻-活性污泥共生体系的优化工艺条件为藻菌干重...     

多级模糊决策在地震预报中的应用

本文把多级模糊决策方法应用于地震预报当中。文中详细论证和推导了多级模糊决策方法与模型。该方法使决策部门可以根据输入前兆的变化随时作出合理的对策。文中还给出了地震预报多级模糊决策数字解实例,并用回顾法讨论了1976年松潘7.2级地震的模糊预报决策。     

A classification framework for interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecology

In some cases, wildlife management objectives directed at multiple species can conflict with one another, creating species trade-offs. For managers to effectively identify trade-offs and avoid their undesirable outcomes, they must understand the agents involved and their corresponding interactions. A literature review of interspecific trade-offs within freshwater and marine ecosystems was conducted to illustrate the scope of potential interspecific trade-offs that may occur. We identified common pitfalls that lead to failed recognition of interspecific trade-offs, including, single-species management and limited consideration of the spatial and temporal scale of ecosystems and their management regimes. We devised a classification framework of common interspecific trade-offs within aquatic systems. The classification can help managers determine whether the conflict is species based through direct relationships (i.e., predator–prey, competition, other antagonistic relationships) or indirect relationships involving intermediate species (i.e., conflict-generating species) or whether the conflict is driven by opposing management objectives for species that would otherwise not interact (i.e., nontarget management effects). Once the nature and scope of trade-offs are understood, existing decision-making tools, such as structured decision-making and real-options analysis, can be incorporated to improve the management of aquatic ecosystems. Article Impact Statement: A synthesis of interspecific trade-offs in aquatic ecosystems supports their identification and resolution.     

基于成本收益理论的井场作业人员不安全行为决策分析

为有效制定油气田井场作业人员不安全行为的防范措施,降低事故发生可能性,基于成本收益理论建立油气田井场作业人员的行为决策模型,通过仿真计算定量分析了不同影响因素对不安全行为产生的影响程度。结果表明:正向激励和负向激励对不安全行为的降低幅度为21.8%,17.2%,负向激励和监督力度共同作用下不安全行为可降低44.8%。油田企业在保证利润的前提下应优先提升HSE奖励水平,合理控制罚金水平的同时加大管理监督力度,从而有效减少作业人员不安全行为的发生,保障企业的安全生产。     

淮南市防震减灾决策系统的建立

在机制上将一个地市(淮南市)的地震预报与防震决策融为一个动态整体,从而建立起一个实用性强的防震减灾决策系统,使城市各种防震对策的生成有了更科学的基础。成为市政府在防震减灾决策中不可缺少的工具。     

Application of Multiattribute Decision-Making Methods for the Determination of Relative Significance Factor of Impact Categories

A relative significance factor (f _i ) of an impact category is the external weight of the impact category. The objective of this study is to propose a systematic and easy-to-use method for the determination of f _i . Multiattribute decision-making (MADM) methods including the analytical hierarchy process (AHP), the rank-order centroid method, and the fuzzy method were evaluated for this purpose. The results and practical aspects of using the three methods are compared. Each method shows the same trend, with minor differences in the value of f _i . Thus, all three methods can be applied to the determination of f _i . The rank order centroid method reduces the number of pairwise comparisons by placing the alternatives in order, although it has inherent weakness over the fuzzy method in expressing the degree of vagueness associated with assigning weights to criteria and alternatives. The rank order centroid method is considered a practical method for the determination of f _i because it is easier and simpler to use compared to the AHP and the fuzzy method.     

完善公众参与环境决策机制的法制探讨

公众参与环境决策是一项重要的公众民主权利。我国已经将环境公众参与作为一项重要的环境保护法律制度,但是由于目前我国环保法律制度的不完善,在实施公众参与环境决策机制上存在着诸多问题,本文从法制的角度探讨了公众参与环境决策的理论依据,分析和论证建立适合我国国情的公众参与环境决策制度的主要方式,并提出完善公众参与环境决策制度的建议。