Reflections on 40 years of Disasters, 1977–2017

This reflection, based on a keynote address to celebrate the fortieth anniversary of Disasters on 14 September 2017, begins by considering some of the prevailing assumptions that existed at the time of the journal's creation. Next is a summary of significant milestones during the past 40 years, covering major global trends, changing disaster impacts, and key developments in disaster risk management. Contrasting approaches in the first and fourth decade of the journal's history are then followed by examples of changes in terminology in the disaster field as an indication of shifting values. The paper goes on to explore the context of 2017, with observations of problem areas such as the loss of knowledge, failures to tackle the root causes of disasters, shortfalls in international assistance, and some negative attitudes. It closes by evaluating some current positive occurrences, including a reduction in casualties, sharing of experience, technological advances, and dramatic improvements in disaster warning.     

SMART-SREC: A stochastic model of the New Jersey solar renewable energy certificate market

Markets for solar renewable energy certificates (SRECs) are gaining in prominence in many states, stimulating growth of the US solar industry. However, SREC market prices have been extremely volatile, causing high risk to participants and potentially less investment in solar power generation. Such concerns necessitate the development of realistic, flexible and tractable models of SREC prices that capture the behavior of participants given the rules that govern the market. We propose an original stochastic model called SMART-SREC to fill this role, building on established ideas from the carbon pricing literature, and including a feedback mechanism for generation response to prices. We calibrate the model to the New Jersey market and backtest it, analyzing parameter sensitivity and demonstrating its ability to reproduce historical dynamics. Finally, we run simulations to investigate the role and impact of regulatory parameters, thus providing insight into the crucial role played by market design.     

Factors influencing perceptions of aquatic ecosystems

While factors influencing perceptions of drinking water have been well studied, those of aquatic ecosystems have been to lesser extent. We conducted a review to improve awareness of these factors. Environmental factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems were presence/absence of water plants and algae, presence/absence of floating debris, the odor, movement (for flowing waters) and clarity/turbidity of the water, and the type, condition, setting, naturalness, and overall aesthetic appeal of the ecosystem. Sociocultural factors found to influence public perceptions of aquatic ecosystems included age, education, gender, and place-based knowledge. We provide perspectives of how managers can better meet the diverse social demands placed on aquatic ecosystems. The importance and benefits of considering these perspectives may be especially beneficial where significant multi-generational and culturally relevant place-based knowledge exist.     

地铁工程安全设计(DFS)知识库构建

针对目前地铁施工和运行过程中安全事故频发的现象,运用安全设计(DFS)概念,提出在地铁设计中应考虑施工和运行安全,构建DFS知识库,以提高设计人员的DFS能力。分析DFS知识库应具备的功能,提出通过知识的搜集、分析、存储和查询4大模块来实现相应的功能;依据模块的功能,详细设计DFS知识库的逻辑结构、系统结构和存储结构;4大模块与DFS不同的结构相结合,构成地铁工程DFS知识库系统。以乘客坠落站台事故为例,进行实证分析。研究结果表明,该案例的逻辑层次为"车站工程子知识库-车站站台子库-客运类事故";合理有效的知识库可根据标准化案例描述识别出危险源,并可运用知识管理的相关方法自动提取针对危险源的设计规范及设计建议。     

A COMPARISON OF STREAMFLOW GENERATION MODELS FOR RESERVOIR CAPACITY-YIELD ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: An analysis of four streamflow generation schemes for the use in the estimation of the required conservation storage for a single reservoir is presented. The comparison of the generating schemes should aid in the selection of an appropriate model type for the reservoir sizing problem. The streamflow generation models are compared using two criteria. The first comparison is between the statistics of the generated streamflow sequences and the corresponding statistics from the historical record. The second evaluation compares the median reservoir size determined by each model with the required storage based on the historical flow sequence. The results of a comparative analysis for monthly streamflow data for the Rzav River in Yugoslavia are presented and discussed. The results indicate that both evaluation criteria are required to discriminate between the various options.     

教师人文素养修炼的再思考

人文素养是以人文知识、人文态度和人文精神为构成要素的人的素质。教师修炼人文素养,可以促进专业发展,提升师德水平。修炼的途径和方法包括更新理念、广泛阅读、提升人格、健康心理等。     

Water Use by Thermoelectric Power Plants in the United States1

Abstract: Thermoelectric power generation is responsible for the largest annual volume of water withdrawals in the United States although it is only a distant third after irrigation and industrial sectors in consumptive use. The substantial water withdrawals by thermoelectric power plants can have significant impacts on local surface and ground water sources, especially in arid regions. However, there are few studies of the determinants of water use in thermoelectric generation. Analysis of thermoelectric water use data in existing steam thermoelectric power plants shows that there is wide variability in unitary thermoelectric water use (in cubic decimeters per 1 kWh) within and among different types of cooling systems. Multiple‐regression models of unit thermoelectric water use were developed to identify significant determinants of unit thermoelectric water use. The high variability of unit usage rates indicates that there is a significant potential for water conservation in existing thermoelectric power plants.     

EFFECTS OF RATE STRUCTURE KNOWLEDGE ON HOUSEHOLD WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: Socioeconomic determinants of individual household water use were estimated using regressions of these characteristics with actual household water use for winter and summer. Results were disaggregated between those consumers who were aware of an increasing block rate price structure and those who were not. Most of the informed group members believed that this price structure did result in significant reductions in water use. Nevertheless, overall water use was greater for the informed group. The determinants of water use were found to differ between informed and uninformed users as well as between winter and summer. The uninformed users were influenced by a larger set of variables in each season than the informed group. In winter, the informed group members with swimming pools and/or arid landscaping used less water than their uninformed counterparts. Summer water use increased with length of tenancy in home for the uninformed group but not for informed, while increasing with ownership for informed consumers.     

A Spatial equilibrium perspective for planning the production of electrical energy

A spatial and temporal equilibrium model of production, consumption, prices, and transmission is constructed to determine the efficient pricing and allocation of electrical energy in the United States. Regional coordination is technically feasible and economically attractive. It also maximizes environmental efficiencies. The duplication of electrical generation and transmission facilities yields a misallocation of resources.The utilities put forth specific arguments against coordinated operations. Yet in a fully integrated power system, each region would be expected to maximize the benefits of time diversity by purchasing from outside the region in lieu of the expansion of regional capacity. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has not yet made a serious move to encourage regional coordination and planning, but the Commission has the authority to promote such operations if it chooses to do so.The author is an economist with the Department of Energy. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies of the Department of Energy or the views of other staff members.     

Local knowledge and climate change adaptation on Erub Island,Torres Strait

Local knowledge is a valuable asset in observing and managing environmental change, and importantly, is an unheralded source of adaptive capacity. Torres Strait Islanders are no exception, having used such knowledge to adapt to biophysical changes in their environment for centuries. This article explores the ways in which Islanders have coped in the past with environmental changes to plan for their future. This article focuses on Erub Island in the eastern group of islands in the Torres Strait and charts the adaptation actions or activities employed by respected locals (Elders and Aunties). Drawing on their local knowledge, these actions or activities have included the building of rock walls and wind breaks, using native species to re-vegetate sand cays and the coastal foreshore, applying self-sufficient practices such as fish traps and gardening, reading and respecting country, and transferring this knowledge to the younger generation. In this way, it is the Islanders themselves who detail, based on their local knowledge, what is most appropriate for their community.