面向社区的参与式灾害风险评估模型研究

以社区为基础的灾害风险评估是目前国际研究的热点问题.在对社区灾害风险评估的基本理论和特点分析的基础上,针对现有灾害风险评估模型的不足,构建了面向社区的参与式灾害风险评估模型(CBPDRAM),为提高我国社区灾害风险评估的科学性提供参考.     

Traditional warning signs of cyclones on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga

Traditional knowledge of disasters has been found to save lives. On remote islands where telecommunications to the mainland are unreliable, unless there are always working batteries in the radio, signs from the environment may be the only warning of an oncoming cyclone. But this knowledge is in danger of being lost, as it is an oral history not well documented, and younger people increasingly rely on technology. This article presents the results of fieldwork on remote islands in Fiji and Tonga in the South Pacific, documenting natural warning signs on islands in two different countries. The results show that there are numerous known signs, with remarkable similarities and consistencies between the two islands. This provides evidence that not only is traditional knowledge of warning signs for cyclones alive and well, the consistency in the signs suggests support for this knowledge as being just as important as western scientific knowledge. The integration of traditional knowledge and western scientific knowledge into a comprehensive warning system may help to overcome some of the limitations of the existing system and the reasons why warnings are sometimes ignored.     

基于地理信息技术的树种分布知识的挖掘与发现——以四川省石棉县为例

论文以四川省石棉县为例,对空间数据库支持下的树种分布知识的发现进行了研究。利用GIS技术建立相关空间数据库,主要有森林资源二类调查GIS数据库、树种GIS数据库,以及10 m分辨率的DEM、多年平均大于10 ℃的年积温和多年平均年降雨量等栅格数据库。利用GIS的叠加统计分析等方法,发现了各树种分布的的海拔、年平均大于10 ℃的积温、年平均降雨量等带谱知识。利用GIS的拓扑空间分析方法,挖掘了各树种间的空间配置知识。该知识可用于退耕还林、造林绿化中,因地制宜地选择树种,以及配置树种。该知识对于辅助数据协同下的各树种遥感识别也具有重要意义。此外,对其他区域也有示范意义。     

行为形成因子与人为差错模式的定性关联分析

为揭示人为差错的发生规律以便有效管理人为差错,研究行为形成因子与人为差错模式间的对应关系。将行为形成因子作为情景环境的表征,在SRK(skill,rule,knowledge)模型的基础上,将认知功能的效能分为3种指标:全面性、准确性和效率,将认知功能与效能指标相结合得到人为差错模式的分类。在此基础上,根据经验详细分析行为形成因子对认知功能3种效能指标的影响,得到行为形成因子与人为差错模式的关联关系表格。该关联关系是定性的,包含密切关联、重要关联、一般关联和没有关联4种关联程度,不但可以用于人为差错事件的调查,而且可以用于人为差错模式的预测。     

基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制——以地震规划为例

为减轻城市灾害损失,提出城市防灾减灾规划编制方法,将减灾规划分为准备、风险分析、编制和实施4个步骤。依据风险分析结果,制订防灾减灾规划目标、减灾措施及策略。给出典型的地震灾害风险分析方法。以某市为例,算出其各区域的地震风险。根据风险等级划分标准确定各区域的地震风险可接受水平。基于此结果在GIS平台上的表达,可知市内旧城区的地震风险很高,须立刻采取风险减缓措施。对减灾措施进行优化,结果表明:加快现有设防不足工程的抗震加固,严抓新建工程的抗震设防水准是提高该市抗震减震能力的关键。     

Knowledge hiding in organizations

Despite the efforts to enhance knowledge transfer in organizations, success has been elusive. It is becoming clear that in many instances employees are unwilling to share their knowledge even when organizational practices are designed to facilitate transfer. Consequently, this paper develops and investigates a novel construct, knowledge hiding. We establish that knowledge hiding exists, we distinguish knowledge hiding from related concepts (knowledge hoarding and knowledge sharing), and we develop a multidimensional measure of this construct. We also identify several predictors of knowledge hiding in organizations. The results of three studies, using different methods, suggest that knowledge hiding is comprised of three related factors: evasive hiding, rationalized hiding, and playing dumb. Each of these hiding behaviors is predicted by distrust, yet each also has a different set of interpersonal and organizational predictors. We draw implications for future research on knowledge management. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

煤矿事故隐患大数据处理与知识发现分析方法研究

为解决半结构化或非结构化文本型煤矿隐患数据利用难度大、挖掘深度不够的问题,首先运用六何分析方法对煤矿事故隐患大数据进行内容分析,确定隐患的描述维度及属性类别,实现文本型隐患数据的量化表达;之后根据隐患数据变量特征,采用对数线性模型进行隐患维度间交互的知识发现研究,探索煤矿事故隐患各维度间的交互效应。研究结果表明:基于“六何分析法+对数线性模型”的分析框架能够实现文本型隐患数据的结构化转换,有效揭示煤矿隐患各维度间的交互影响关系,实现隐性知识的显性化。     

A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants

Prediction of construction cost of wastewater treatment facilities could be influential for the economic feasibility of various levels of water pollution control programs. However, construction cost estimation is difficult to precisely evaluate in an uncertain environment and measured quantities are always burdened with different types of cost structures. Therefore, an understanding of the previous development of wastewater treatment plants and of the related construction cost structures of those facilities becomes essential for dealing with an effective regional water pollution control program. But deviations between the observed values and the estimated values are supposed to be due to measurement errors only in the conventional regression models. The inherent uncertainties of the underlying cost structure, where the human estimation is influential, are rarely explored. This paper is designed to recast a well-known problem of construction cost estimation for both domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants via a comparative framework. Comparisons were made for three technologies of regression analyses, including the conventional least squares regression method, the fuzzy linear regression method, and the newly derived fuzzy goal regression method. The case study, incorporating a complete database with 48 domestic wastewater treatment plants and 29 industrial wastewater treatment plants being collected in Taiwan, implements such a cost estimation procedure in an uncertain environment. Given that the fuzzy structure in regression estimation may account for the inherent human complexity in cost estimation, the fuzzy goal regression method does exhibit more robust results in terms of some criteria. Moderate economy of scale exists in constructing both the domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants. Findings indicate that the optimal size of a domestic wastewater treatment plant is approximately equivalent to 15,000 m3/day (CMD) and higher in Taiwan. Yet the optimal size of an industrial wastewater treatment plant could fall in between 6000 CMD and 20,000 CMD.     

Local Cultural Knowledge and Water Resource Management: The Wind River Indian Reservation

Ecology and culture comprise interacting components of landscapes. Understanding the integrative nature of the landscape is essential to establish methods for sustainable management. This research takes as a unifying theme the idea that ecological and cultural issues can be incorporated through management. As a first step in developing integrative management strategies, information must be collected that compares and contrasts ecological and cultural issues to identify their areas of intersection. Specifically how can local cultural knowledge enable water resource management that reflects cultural and ecological values? This research examines Native American cultural knowledge for setting water resource management priorities in the Wind River Indian Reservation in central Wyoming. A cross-cultural approach is adopted to assess the relationship between indigenous cultural knowledge and Euro-American perspectives through a comparative examination of the Wind River Water Code and Wyoming Water Law. This research indicates that cultural perspectives provide a rich arena in which to examine management issues. Understanding and identifying cultural practices may be an important first step in collaborative resource management between different cultural groups to prevent conflict and lengthy resolution in court.     

Understandings of Environmental Quality: Ambiguities and Values Held by Environmental Professionals

The terms used to describe and negotiate environmental quality are both ambiguous and value-laden. Stakeholders intimately and actively involved in the management of forested lands were interviewed and found to use ambiguous, tautological, and value-laden definitions of terms such as health, biodiversity, sustainability, and naturalness. This confusing language hinders public participation efforts and produces calls to regulate and remove discretion from environmental professionals. Our data come from in-depth interviews with environmental management professionals and other stakeholders heavily vested in negotiating the fate of forested lands. We contend that environmental science and management will be more effective if its practitioners embrace and make explicit these ambiguous and evaluative qualities rather than ignore and disguise them.