Prospects for Reconciling the Conflict between Economic Growth and Biodiversity Conservation with Technological Progress

Abstract: The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is understood in portions of academia and sometimes acknowledged in political circles. Nevertheless, there is not a unified response. In political and policy circles, the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is posited to solve the conflict between economic growth and environmental protection. In academia, however, the EKC has been deemed fallacious in macroeconomic scenarios and largely irrelevant to biodiversity. A more compelling response to the conflict is that it may be resolved with technological progress. Herein I review the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation in the absence of technological progress, explore the prospects for technological progress to reconcile that conflict, and provide linguistic suggestions for describing the relationships among economic growth, technological progress, and biodiversity conservation. The conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation is based on the first two laws of thermodynamics and principles of ecology such as trophic levels and competitive exclusion. In this biophysical context, the human economy grows at the competitive exclusion of nonhuman species in the aggregate. Reconciling the conflict via technological progress has not occurred and is infeasible because of the tight linkage between technological progress and economic growth at current levels of technology. Surplus production in existing economic sectors is required for conducting the research and development necessary for bringing new technologies to market. Technological regimes also reflect macroeconomic goals, and if the goal is economic growth, reconciliatory technologies are less likely to be developed. As the economy grows, the loss of biodiversity may be partly mitigated with end‐use innovation that increases technical efficiency, but this type of technological progress requires policies that are unlikely if the conflict between economic growth and biodiversity conservation (and other aspects of environmental protection) is not acknowledged.     

Dynamic-risk-informed safety barrier management: An application to cost-effective barrier optimization based on data from multiple sources

An integrated approach for performance assessment and management of safety barriers in a systemic manner is needed concerning the prevention and mitigation of major accidents in chemical process industries. Particularly, the effects of safety barriers on system risk reduction should be assessed in a dynamic manner to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. A simulation approach, named Simulink-based Safety Barrier Modeling (SSBM), is proposed in this paper to conduct dynamic risk assessment of chemical facilities with the consideration of the degradation of safety barriers. The main functional features of the SSBM include i) the basic model structures of SSBM can be determined based on bow-tie diagrams, ii) multiple data (periodic proof test data, continuous condition-monitoring data, and accident precursor data) may be combined to update barrier failure probabilities and initiating event probabilities, iii) SSBM is able to handle uncertainty propagation in probabilistic risk assessment by using Monte Carlo simulations, and iv) cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and optimization algorithms are integrated to support the decision-making on safety barrier establishments and improvements. An illustrative case study is demonstrated to show the procedures of applying the SSBM on dynamic risk-informed safety barrier management and validate the feasibility of implementing the SSBM for cost-effective safety barrier optimization.     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅰ.科技进步增产理论、模型及其应用

粮食增产趋势及增产原因是国家制定宏观农业政策和措施的依据。科技进步增产理论是指：气候是波动的,科技是持续进步的,它是粮食多年持续增产的主要驱动力;科技进步增产预测模型是多年平均单产移动的回归方程。全国和东北三省粮食增产潜力案例分析结果表明：科技进步单产加速时间最早的是辽宁省,最晚的是黑龙江省;与全国相比,吉林省和辽宁省科技进步贡献率高于全国平均水平,黑龙江省低于全国平均水平,吉林省最高。本文初步得出以下结论：科技进步增产理论科学、模型实用、预测结果准确。     

热障涂层对DD6单晶高温合金高周疲劳性能的影响

目的研究电子束物理气相沉积热障涂层对单晶高温合金高周疲劳性能的影响,为热障涂层在涡轮叶片上的应用提供技术支持。方法采用真空电弧镀和电子束物理气相沉积工艺制备YSZ热障涂层,进行900℃条件下高周疲劳性能测试,采用扫描电镜对测试后的试样表面、断口形貌进行观察与分析。结果在900℃、380 MPa条件下,带涂层的DD6单晶试棒循环次数(Nf)超过了107,420 MPa条件下超过了106。通过对DD6单晶试棒断口分析,失效后的带涂层试棒仍以DD6单晶常见滑移解离形式发生破坏。结论高周疲劳性能测试条件下,带YSZ热障涂层的试棒中粘结层率先产生垂直微裂纹,但是裂纹扩展延伸中发生氧化钝化,之后DD6基体沿正常的滑移方向从表面向内部疲劳扩展,带涂层的试棒疲劳裂纹并非由涂层微裂纹直接扩展形成,热障涂层对DD6单晶高温合金高周疲劳性能影响较小。     

电子束物理气相沉积制备热障涂层研究进展

介绍了电子束物理气相沉积设备的主要组成、工作原理和电子束物理气相沉积热障涂层的结构特点,并重点论述了工件转速、工件温度、靶材蒸汽入射角度、工件表面的粗糙度、粘结层预氧化、改性粘结层和双层陶瓷层等对电子束物理气相沉积热障涂层性能的影响。     

热处理温度对热障涂层微观形貌及元素互扩散的影响

目的提高热障涂层抗氧化性能,并减小二次反应区的形成。方法采用真空电弧离子镀技术在二代单晶高温合金DD32表面制备NiCoCrAlYHf(HY5)金属粘结层,分别在870℃及1000℃下进行真空扩散处理,利用电子束物理气相沉积(EB-PVD)技术制备氧化钇部分稳定氧化锆(YSZ)陶瓷层。采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)、电子探针(EPMA)以及能谱(EDS)等测试方法,研究高温循环氧化过程中热障涂层的微观形貌、成分及扩散机制,同时计算了1、125 h氧化时间下Al元素互扩散系数。结果经过1000℃热循环、1000℃热处理的涂层氧化质量增量的绝对值较小,氧化速率常数为7.21×10-4,抗循环氧化性能较好。1100℃热处理试样,从涂层表面到基体方向Ni、Al、Cr等元素分布都比较均匀,在涂层与基体界面处,元素含量变化较为平滑。870℃热处理试样,Ni等元素质量分数分布不均,在涂层与基体界面处元素含量陡然变化,元素均质化程度低。Al元素扩散系数随着浓度的增加而增大,随着氧化时间的延长,粘结层与高温合金之间的元素扩散程度加剧,Al元素扩散系数减小。经过125h循环氧化,粘结层/基体界面出现互扩散区,互扩散区局部区域富Cr,Al含量低。循环氧化250 h后,热障涂层试样扩散区下方有拓扑密堆相TCP析出,形成二次反应区SRZ。真空扩散温度为870℃的试样,二次反应区更加明显。结论金属粘结层在1000℃下进行真空热处理可以有效提高涂层的抗氧化性能。涂层内部元素均质化程度高,Al元素扩散速率慢。同时,扩散区宽度较小,二次反应区不明显。     

EK∕PRB修复砷污染土壤影响因素及机理

为明确EK/PRB（电动联合渗透反应格栅）修复As污染土壤过程中各因素的影响机理、提高As的去除效率,以As污染高岭土为研究对象,考察PRB加入、PRB位置、pH调控及腐殖酸强化影响下,EK/PRB系统中电流密度、土壤pH分布和土壤中As残余量、电渗透系数及电渗流的变化规律;探讨EK/PRB修复后土壤中As形态的迁移转化规律.结果表明:①单独EK修复对土壤中As的去除效率较低,加入PRB后去除率为由42%增至57%,并且EK/PRB修复可以将土壤中的As由不容易去除的可还原态转变成较容易去除的酸溶态.②采用盐酸调节阴极pH,可以将土壤中As的去除率由57%增至63%,但同时能耗也明显升高,由5.22 kW·h/g升至39.38 kW·h/g.③添加腐殖酸会促进土壤中As的迁移、提高As的去除效率,但也会增加土壤中难处理的可氧化态和残渣态As的占比.研究显示,EK/PRB除As过程中以PRB的去除作用为主,阴极pH调控及腐殖酸强化均可以提高土壤中As的去除率.      

"数字石羊河"建立及其在沙尘暴防治中的应用

由于上游超量用水,导致石羊河下游的民勤县绿洲无水可用,生态环境严重恶化,成为我国的第四大沙尘暴策源地.本文提出了建立"数字石羊河"的概念,认为石羊河流域要建立公平的用水机制,在技术上要建立"数字石羊河",最后对"数字石羊河"在沙尘暴防治中的应用作了分析.     

埕岛油田海底管道漏磁检测与安全评估

提出了埕岛油田海底管道内缺陷漏磁检测需解决的主要问题,研发了325 mm管道内缺陷漏磁检测装置,确定了海底管道漏磁检测工艺流程,配套了管道检测发射装置、接受装置等相关设施,实现了海底管道的漏磁检测、缺陷分析和安全评估。     

报废梯黑铝装药提取制备硫酸铝工艺研究

为回收梯黑铝混合装药中的铝,通过单因素试验及五因素四水平正交试验对提取工艺进行优化。结果表明,五因素影响顺序为:酸液浓度>颗粒尺寸>反应温度>液固比>反应时间;提取最佳工艺条件为:酸液浓度0.8 mol/L,炸药颗粒尺寸40~50目,反应温度45℃,液固比13 mL/g,反应时间90 min;所得硫酸铝产品品质较优。