黄河流域生态环境脆弱性评价、空间分析及预测

生态环境脆弱性是制约经济可持续、高质量发展的重要因素。以2005—2018年黄河流域73个城市为研究对象,构建了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析计算了黄河流域生态环境脆弱指数,并依据自然断点法将评价结果分为极度脆弱、重度脆弱、中度脆弱、轻度脆弱、微度脆弱五类。进一步通过空间相关分析揭示了黄河流域生态环境脆弱性的时空演变特征,并利用CA-Markov模型对黄河流域2025年生态环境脆弱性进行了预测。结果表明：（1）黄河上、中、下游生态环境脆弱性分别表现“低—中—高”的分布特征,且生态环境脆弱性变化趋势存在区别：上游虽差异较大但波动相似,中游波动方向相反,下游在2016年之后整体呈下降趋势。（2）黄河流域生态环境脆弱性存在空间相关性,上游呈现低—低聚集,下游呈现高—高聚集,中游空间相关性不显著。（3）预测2025年黄河流域中游地区重度脆弱有所扩张,下游地区极度脆弱向中心区域明显收缩。黄河流域生态环境的治理与保护并非一朝一夕之事,也并非某一流域单独能够完成的,黄河上、中、下游要根据不同的自然条件制定与之相适宜、符合整体发展需要的治理与保护措施。     

Source identification, contamination status and health risk assessment of heavy metals from road dusts in Dhaka, Bangladesh

In this study, concentrations of Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were determined in road dusts collected from different locations in Dhaka to assess source, contamination status and health risk. Energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy were used to determine Cr, Mn, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb and their mean concentrations were 162.27 ± 29.46, 721.18 ± 180.14, 35.65 ± 12.55, 104.56 ± 128.33, 515.32 ± 321.90, BDL, and 342.82 ± 591.20 mg/kg, respectively. Among the heavy metals, highest concentrations of Cu, Zn and Pb were found at urban sites-7 (municipal waste dumping) and 8 (medical waste incineration). Highest concentration of Cr followed by Cu and Zn was found at site-5 (Tejgaon, urban). Principal component analysis revealed that anthropogenic activities are the potential sources for Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Pb while earth crust for Mn. Pollution index and pollution load index results suggested that all the sites were contaminated and/or degraded by Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb except sites-9 (urban), 10 (sub-urban), 11 (rural) while sites-7 and 8 (urban) were extremely degraded. For noncarcinogenic health risk, hazard quotient values for dermal were higher compared to that of inhalation/ingestion. Though hazard index values were less than 1 at all the sites, these were at least one order of magnitude higher for children group than that of adult group, thus the children group may face more noncarcinogenic health risk at sites-7 and 8. Values of incremental lifetime cancer risk were from 10⁻⁹ to 10⁻¹¹ showed no carcinogenic health risk by road dusts contaminated with the heavy metals.     

海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统的设计与实现

目的研制开发"海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统",实现海军航空装备保障管理智能化,有效利用保障资源,提高保障工作效率。方法采用C/S和B/S模式相结合,前台以NevronNETVision为系统开发平台,后台数据管理采用大型关系型数据库SQLServe,通过网络计划技术和AOE网分析技术,实现图形绘制和确定关键路线。结果通过导入Excel工作薄,实现统筹图、甘特图、资源载荷图的自动生成,提供可视化的图形编辑和统筹图的规范性检查,能进行关键路径、时间参数计算和人员负荷分析。结论 "海军航空装备保障统筹图绘制系统"智能、高效,为海军航空装备保障管理智能化提供了技术支持。     

医疗废物焚烧厂周边环境空气中二英浓度分布及其健康风险评估

于2015-2018年冬季（12月-2月）对广东省某医疗废物焚烧厂排放烟气及焚烧设施周边2.5 km范围内6个采样点分别进行了4次烟气和环境空气样品采集,应用高分辨气相色谱/高分辨质谱（HRGC-HRMS）联用技术对二（口恶）英（PCDD/Fs）浓度水平进行监测并对其组成特征进行了分析,运用主成分分析法（PCA）对周边环境空气中二（口恶）英来源进行了初步解析,同时采用VLIER-HUMAAN模型评估其对人体的健康风险.结果表明该医疗废物焚烧厂烟气二（口恶）英毒性当量浓度为0.542~21.300 ng·Nm^-3（以I-TEQ计）,排放水平较高;周边环境空气中PCDD/Fs质量浓度和毒性当量浓度变化范围分别为0.682~196.000 pg·m^-3和0.036~17.700 pg·m^-3（以I-TEQ计）,周边环境空气中PCDD/Fs浓度明显受到排放源烟气落地点的影响.空气样品中二（口恶）英同族体及异构体分布指纹谱图与该焚烧设施排放烟气类似,空气质量浓度主要贡献单体以OCDD、1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDF、OCDF以及1,2,3,4,6,7,8-HpCDD为主,主要毒性贡献单体为2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF.PCA源解析结论与指纹谱图特征分析结论基本一致,该研究区域中环境空气二（口恶）英主要来源于医疗废物焚烧烟气排放.健康风险评估结果表明,该区域人群呼吸暴露风险总体处于较为安全的水平（0.0032~0.141 pg TEQ·kg^-1·d^-1）,部分个体的呼吸暴露贡献率超过了评价限值,应引起重视.     

黄河源区鄂陵湖中多环芳烃的百年沉积记录

为研究黄河源区多环芳烃（PAHs）的污染历史,于2016年7月在鄂陵湖中采集了沉积物柱芯,采用²¹⁰Pb定年,利用气相色谱串联三重四级杆质谱仪（GC-MS/MS）分析了16种PAHs,运用有序聚类分析对PAHs的垂向分布进行分带,并采取主成分分析及多元线性回归定量分析了PAHs的来源.结果表明,鄂陵湖沉积柱的沉积速率为0.176cm/a,慢于青藏高原多数湖泊.总PAHs的含量为11.3~54.7ng/g,平均值为29.2ng/g,与其他高原和偏远地区湖泊沉积物相比,处于较低水平,可被视为PAHs的全球沉积物背景值.PAHs的垂向变化分为1948年以前、1948~1976和1976~2016年3个时间段,5~6环PAHs在1948~2016年间呈上升趋势,与青海省人口及大型牲畜数量显著相关,反映了鄂陵湖地区近70a来的人类活动以农牧业为主.PAHs来源分为本地源（23%）以及长距离迁移与本地混合源（77%）.本地源的垂向变化与5~6环PAHs一致,代表了青藏高原地区以牛粪饼为主要燃料的生物质燃烧源.     

镉砷在针铁矿界面共吸附的相互作用机制

通过吸附动力学和吸附热力学结合表面物理化学表征等手段,研究了As(Ⅴ)和Cd(Ⅱ)在针铁矿界面上的相互作用过程,解析了As(Ⅴ)和Cd(Ⅱ)在针铁矿界面共吸附过程中形成三元络合物的形态.结果表明：(1) As(Ⅴ)和Cd(Ⅱ)在针铁矿界面的吸附过程均符合准二级动力学模型,吸附以化学吸附为主;(2) As(Ⅴ)在针铁矿界面吸附均以内圈吸附为主,具有单层吸附的典型特征,Cd(Ⅱ)在针铁矿界面单吸附过程与As(Ⅴ)类似,而添加了As(Ⅴ)的共吸附过程则出现了外圈吸附,呈现多层吸附的典型特征;(3) As(Ⅴ)和Cd(Ⅱ)共存时可通过静电作用以及形成三元络合物的方式相互促进对方在针铁矿界面上的吸附;(4)通过对比各种表征结果,推导As(Ⅴ)和Cd(Ⅱ)在针铁矿上共吸附过程中生成了“Fe-As-Cd”形式的三元络合物.研究结果进一步丰富了对土壤-氧化铁界面重金属元素微化学相互作用过程的理解.     

基于PMF-PCA/APCS与PERI的菏泽油用牡丹种植区表层土壤重金属潜在来源识别及生态风险评估

研究特色农产品产区土壤重金属来源及其潜在风险,对科学管理、安全利用土壤和作物资源具有重要意义.以菏泽油用牡丹种植区为研究对象,采集并测定了254件表层土壤样品As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni、Pb和Zn等8种重金属的含量.采用多元统计法分析了重金属的含量特征及相关性,利用地累积指数（I_geo）、正定矩阵因子分解法（PMF）和主成分分析/绝对主成分分数法（PCA/APCS）相结合的手段解析了表层土壤中重金属的来源,借助潜在生态风险指数（PERI）对该8种重金属的生态风险进行了评估.结果表明,土壤中除Cd元素的平均值高于菏泽市背景值1.44倍之外,其余7种重金属的平均含量均与菏泽市土壤元素背景值基本一致;经相关分析和聚类分析,土壤中Pb、Hg和Cd元素受后期人为活动的干扰影响较大;研究区8种重金属的来源为自然源、农业化肥源、工业燃煤源和生活交通源,贡献率分别为81.31%、15.45%、2.74%和0.50%;研究区84.25%的点位处于轻微生态风险,而中度风险和强风险点位占比分别为14.96%和0.79%,其中Cd和Hg是研究区生态风险主导元素.     

Ordination of Plant Communities in Forest Biogeocenoses under Conditions of Air Pollution in the Northern Kola Peninsula

The species diversity and structure of the tree, herb–dwarf shrub, and moss–lichen layers in the biogeocenoses (BGCs) of pine forests of the Kola Peninsula were analyzed in the zone affected by the Pechenganikel Combined Works. Relationships of the diversity of phytocenoses with the amount of atmospheric fallout and the concentrations of accessible compounds of polluting elements (nickel and copper) and nutrients (potassium, magnesium, and nitrogen) in forest litters were revealed.     

Joint analysis of process and operator performance in chemical process operational safety

Independent studies of case histories by the Health and Safety Commission in the UK and by a Honeywell led industrial consortium world-wide showed that human errors represent the major cause of failure in process plant operation. In contrast to this discovery the majority of previous studies on computer aided systems for fault detection and diagnosis has focused on the process side. This paper presents a methodology, which can involve human factors into the development of systems for automatic identification and diagnosis of abnormal operations and develops methods and techniques that can be used to simultaneously capture, characterise and assess the performance of operators as well as of the process. A joint process–operator simulation platform is developed which is used as a test-bed for carrying out the study. The process part is a simulator, which simulates in high fidelity the dynamic behaviour of the process that is subject to the influence of various disturbances and operators’ interventions. The operator module is developed as a real-time expert system, which emulates operator’s behaviour in interpretation of received signals, and planning and execution of decisions. The interaction between the two modules is managed through an interaction module, which handles the real-time exchange of data using Dynamic Data Exchange. The interaction module also contains the toolkits for analysing the dynamic behaviour of the joint process–operator system. The method and system are illustrated using a simulated case study.     

企业安全评价分析的主成分方法

依据某机车车辆厂的特点,建立了安全性评价指标体系,并应用主成分分析法对数据进行分析处理,求出指标综合表达式和排序结果,从而得到指标的客观权重,并指出了主成分法应用于安全评价中的特点。