考虑火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究

在现行的性能化防火设计中,通常将火灾发展与人员疏散两个过程分开考虑,从而忽略了火场环境对人员疏散过程的实时作用。该方法与实际情况有很大差异。笔者借助火灾模拟程序CFAST和人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS,以某地铁车站为例,进行了火场环境实时作用下的人群疏散仿真研究。结果表明,火场环境会降低人群的判断和活动能力,延长疏散时间并产生其他的不利后果。因此,在防火设计中考虑火场环境对人群疏散的实时影响是十分必要的。     

北京、东京及釜山地铁防灾应急设施现状调查研究

地铁在面对各种灾害时,各类防灾及应急设施的准备是否充分将直接影响到救援工作的质量。通过实地考察北京、日本(东京地铁车站为主)及韩国釜山城市的地铁车站防灾应急设施,探讨东京和釜山地铁与北京地铁应急设施的异同,并结合我国关于大型现代地铁枢纽站应急预案的研究,针对我国地铁在防灾应急设施方面存在的问题提出改进建议。     

浅谈水质在线监控中遥感技术的应用

空间信息技术以及计算机技术的发展，给环境监控提供了先进、快速和科学的方法。其中，遥感技术由于能够快速、宏观地获得所监控区域的数据，近年来已逐渐成为环境监控系统中的重要技术手段。遥感信息是被控区域的电磁辐射能量及其结构特征与时空状态在遥感图像上的表现。今后，遥感技术、在线监控系统和地理信息系统等多种信息处理工具的结合将是环境信息监控系统发展的主要方向。     

航空安全文化的研究进展

结合国内外对航空安全文化定量和定性的研究结果,定义了航空安全文化,并阐述航空安全文化的内涵,介绍国内外航空安全文化研究的进展情况,指出了国内外航空安全文化研究的差距,进而给出我国航空安全文化的研究方向。目的在于使以后的研究越来越关注实证角度,为从人为因素角度加强航空安全提供可靠、可信的数据支持,提高飞行绩效,创造安全飞行周期新记录,最终提高航空公司的经济及社会效益。     

天然气钻井井口安全距离研究分析

分析天然气钻井井场可能发生的事故类型及事故的破坏程度,选择适合的事故后果模型,对天然气井井喷失控后可能发生的蒸气云爆炸及硫化氢扩散的后果进行量化分析,根据超压-冲量准则、热剂量准则和硫化氢扩散行为规律,计算出爆炸波、爆炸火球及硫化氢扩散的危害范围。笔者建立了天然气钻井井口安全距离的计算模型,并提出一种确定安全距离的方法。通过计算给出不同无阻流量、不同硫化氢体积含量的20种条件下的天然气钻井井口安全距离,并应用该模型对某含硫气井井口安全距离进行了计算。实例表明,该方法具备实用性,值得在天然气井选址规划中推广和使用。     

基于道化学法的大型合成氨装置安全评价

根据道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数的基本原理。用VH6．0开发的安全评价软件DowSE1．0，对某大型合成氨装置进行安全评价，得出其安全措施补偿前后的火灾、爆炸指数F＆EI以及危险暴露面积，危害系数，危险等级，实际可能财产损失程度等指数。结果表明。合成氨装置中实际最大可能财产损失值都没有超过200万美元，气化系统在合成氨装置中实际最大可能财产损失值占损失替换值比例高达53％，超过了10％的相对危险值界限。说明在引进国外技术时应注重其安全防范配套措施消化吸收，并结合实际采取切实可行的安全措施，降低合成氨装置的风险程度。     

Hydrological Connectivity Between Headwater Streams and Downstream Waters: How Science Can Inform Policy1

Abstract: In January 2001, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers exceeded its statutory authority by asserting Clean Water Act (CWA) jurisdiction over non‐navigable, isolated, intrastate waters based solely on their use by migratory birds. The Supreme Court’s majority opinion addressed broader issues of CWA jurisdiction by implying that the CWA intended some “connection” to navigability and that isolated waters need a “significant nexus” to navigable waters to be jurisdictional. Subsequent to this decision (SWANCC), there have been many lawsuits challenging CWA jurisdiction, many of which are focused on headwater, intermittent, and ephemeral streams. To inform the legal and policy debate surrounding this issue, we present information on the geographic distribution of headwater streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams throughout the U.S., summarize major findings from the scientific literature in considering hydrological connectivity between headwater streams and downstream waters, and relate the scientific information presented to policy issues surrounding the scope of waters protected under the CWA. Headwater streams comprise approximately 53% (2,900,000 km) of the total stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska, and intermittent and ephemeral streams comprise approximately 59% (3,200,000 km) of the total stream length and approximately 50% (1,460,000 km) of the headwater stream length in the U.S., excluding Alaska. Hillslopes, headwater streams, and downstream waters are best described as individual elements of integrated hydrological systems. Hydrological connectivity allows for the exchange of mass, momentum, energy, and organisms longitudinally, laterally, vertically, and temporally between headwater streams and downstream waters. Via hydrological connectivity, headwater, intermittent and ephemeral streams cumulatively contribute to the functional integrity of downstream waters; hydrologically and ecologically, they are a part of the tributary system. As this debate continues, scientific input from multiple fields will be important for policymaking at the federal, state, and local levels and to inform water resource management regardless of the level at which those decisions are being made. Strengthening the interface between science, policy, and public participation is critical if we are going to achieve effective water resource management.     

Mapping Three‐Dimensional Water‐Quality Data in the Chesapeake Bay Using Geostatistics1

Abstract:  Data interpretation and visualization software tools with geostatistical capabilities were adapted, customized, and tested to assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in improving its water‐quality modeling protocols. Tools were required to interpolate, map, and visualize three‐dimensional (3D) water‐quality data, with the capability to determine estimation errors. Components of the software, originally developed for ground‐water modeling, were customized for application in estuaries. Additional software components were developed for retrieval, and for pre‐ and post‐ processing of data. The Chesapeake Bay Program uses the 3D mapped data for input to the Bay water‐quality model that projects the future health of the Bay and its tidal tributary system. In determining water‐quality attainment criteria, 3D kriging estimation errors are needed as a statistical measure of uncertainty. Furthermore, given the high cost of installing and operating new monitoring stations, geostatistical techniques can assist the Chesapeake Bay Program in the identification of suitable data collection locations. Following the evaluation, selection, and development of the software components phase, 3D ordinary kriging techniques with directional semi‐variograms to account for anisotropy were successfully demonstrated for mapping 3D fixed station water‐quality data, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Additionally, an improved delineation tool was implemented to simulate the upper and lower pycnocline boundary surfaces allowing the segregation of the interpolated 3D data into three separate zones for a better characterization of the pycnocline layer.     

A Biological Assessment of Streams in the Eastern United States Using a Predictive Model for Macroinvertebrate Assemblages1

Abstract: A predictive model (RIVPACS‐type) for benthic macroinvertebrates was constructed to assess the biological condition of 1,087 streams sampled throughout the eastern United States from 1993‐2003 as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water‐Quality Assessment Program. A subset of 338 sites was designated as reference quality, 28 of which were withheld from model calibration and used to independently evaluate model precision and accuracy. The ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) taxa richness was used as a continuous measure of biological condition, and sites with O/E values <0.8 were classified as biologically degraded. Spatiotemporal variability of O/E values was evaluated with repeated annual and within‐site samples at reference sites. Values of O/E were regressed on a measure of urbanization in three regions and compared among streams in different land‐use settings. The model accurately predicted the expected taxa at validation sites with high precision (SD = 0.11). Within‐site spatial variability in O/E values was much larger than annual and among‐site variation at reference sites and was likely caused by environmental differences among sampled reaches. Values of O/E were significantly correlated with basin road density in the Boston, Massachusetts (p < 0.001), Birmingham, Alabama (p = 0.002), and Green Bay, Wisconsin (p = 0.034) metropolitan areas, but the strength of the relations varied among regions. Urban streams were more depleted of taxa than streams in other land‐use settings, but larger networks of riparian forest appeared to mediate biological degradation. Taxa that occurred less frequently than predicted by the model were those known to be generally intolerant of a variety of anthropogenic stressors.     

实现道路交通安全的营运车辆监控系统框架研究

当前营运车辆监管中,交通管理部门、运输企业和司乘人员3方没有直接的信息通道,导致监管不到位,影响道路交通安全。笔者探讨了营运车辆监控的信息传输通道;以GPS、无线通信技术和互联网为基础,设计了营运车辆监控的技术框架,实现了联系3方的信息传输通道;分析框架实现的关键技术,包括道路限速数据库,车辆超速、疲劳驾驶、超载等违法行为的判定模式等;以广东省营运车辆监控系统为例,验证了框架的可行性。该技术框架使司乘人员的交通违法行为被及时警告和提醒,交通管理部门可以及时制止交通违法行为,可以主动预防交通事故,提高道路交通安全水平。