国土空间规划大数据应用方法框架探讨

新时代国土空间规划的核心目标为“满足人民对美好生活的需求”和“自然资源保护”并重。作为国家部门调整后的新规划类型,国土空间规划编制的方法研究整体缺乏,学者主要聚焦于自然资源本身的禀赋情况,利用传统统计、空间及调查数据和统计分析、空间分析及归纳演绎等方法对国家及省域层面的国土空间承载力与适宜性进行静态评价,对生态红线、基本农田保护线、城镇开发边界进行刚性划定。然而,现有研究较少考虑人类活动对国土空间利用的动态影响,缺乏对新发展趋势之下的生态空间、农业空间及城镇空间的科学安排。本文引入能够直接反映人类活动时空变化的大数据,重点从国土空间适宜性评价、生态空间规划、农业空间规划及城镇空间规划四个环节探讨了大数据应用的方向与具体方法框架,强调“自然空间”+“社会经济活动”相互作用下的国土空间规划编制的科学化路径。     

岸线资源评估、空间管控分区的理论与方法——以长江岸线资源为例

岸线资源由于其所处水陆交互带的特殊地理位置,成为国土空间和国土资源的重要组成部分,逐步引起各界的重视和关注。而依托于长江黄金水道长江岸线资源发挥着重要的经济价值,随着长江大保护战略实施其生态价值愈加凸显。从岸线资源的概念内涵和特征分类出发,构建岸线资源价值评估的理论框架和指标体系,以长江岸线为例开展岸线资源经济功能价值和生态功能价值评价,并探索岸线资源分区管控方案,提出空间管控分区对策建议,以期丰富和拓展自然资源理论体系及研究范例,为长江经济带及全国其他地区岸线资源调查评估及管控分区提供参考借鉴。     

MOFs材料在废水污染物吸附治理中的应用研究进展

介绍了国内外MOFs材料吸附去除废水中各种污染物的研究进展,主要针对重金属离子(Hg²⁺、U⁶⁺、Cr⁶⁺、Cd²⁺、Pb²⁺、Co²⁺、Sb⁵⁺、Sr²⁺)及类金属离子(As³⁺、As⁵⁺)、有机污染物(染料分子、芳香化合物)等的去除,分析了MOFs及改性MOFs材料对废水中污染物的吸附性能;展望了MOFs材料在废水污染物吸附治理中的应用前景,提出高稳定性及具有催化性质的MOFs材料是用于废水中污染物吸附治理的理想材料。     

基于逻辑框架法的自然资源用途管制路径与方法研究

统一用途管制是自然资源管理的宏观核心目标。目前自然资源用途管制中仍存在事权划分不清、管制指标维度不一、管制空间重叠、监督评价不足等问题,需从管制逻辑框架和系统构成的层面进行综合研究。逻辑框架法是一种从问题出发,将宏观目标转换为具体目标和措施的有效方法。借助逻辑框架法思路,在分析自然资源用途管制基本内涵的基础上,建立自然资源用途管制的“宏观目标—具体目标—问题提出—管制措施—评价监管”的逻辑框架关系,同时在自然资源用途管制具体措施和评价监督等方面提出相关建议。     

水—能源—粮食纽带关系若干问题解析

水、能源、粮食均为战略性、基础性资源,三者之间相互关联,彼此制约,深刻影响着人类的生产、生活和生态环境。通过梳理水—能源—粮食纽带关系领域的研究内容、研究方法、研究尺度等,进一步明确了变化环境影响下水—能源—粮食纽带关系概念框架及其风险关系的传递与表达,指出当前对水—能源—粮食纽带关系理解尚未统一,广泛采用的有“联系论”和“方法论”。现有研究对水—能源—粮食纽带关系进行了现状评估,资源间相互消耗关系的量化与不同情景下的仿真模拟。研究中存在数据缺失、不一致,评估因素单一,缺少动态反馈机制,难以真正应用到政策调控中等问题。因此,数据整合、模型集成、风险评估与动态调节、提高韧性、城市尺度研究和智慧管理,均是水—能源—粮食纽带关系发展关注的重点领域。     

Effect of variable fishing strategy on fisheries under changing effort and pressure: An agent-based model application

An agent-based model was used to evaluate the response of a two-species fish community to fishing boat exploration strategies, namely: boats following high-yield boats (Cartesian); boats fishing at random sites (stochast-random); and boats fishing at least exploited sites (stochast-pressure). At low fishing pressure, the stochast-random mode yielded a high average catch per boat while sustaining fish biomass. At high fishing pressure, the Cartesian mode was more effective. For the Cartesian strategy, fish biomass exhibited four distinct behaviors with increasing number of boats. In the first phase, the fish biomass dropped with increasing number of boats due to a corresponding rise in biomass extraction. Rapid exploitation occurred in the second phase, when two or more boats occupied the same initial area, that led to the faster abandonment of those sites which then underwent biomass recovery. In the third phase, adding more boats resulted in a fluctuating stock biomass, where the combined effects of initial spatial distribution of boats and rapid localization led to either full stock recovery when boats were eventually confined to a single location due to spillovers, or stock extirpation when the entire area became fully occupied. Beyond the third phase, stock extirpation was assured. In order to break the pattern of localization (bandwagon effect), we introduced stochast-random intruders in a Cartesian-dominated fishery. Adding a single intruder changed the patchy-structured stock biomass pattern of a purely Cartesian fishery to a uniformly explored stock biomass pattern because of the additional spatial information provided by the intruder. Consequently, the average catch per boat increased but at the expense of a disproportionate decline in equilibrium biomass.     

·OH自由基介导2,4-二氯酚光降解机理及产物毒性变化特征的理论研究

由于2,4-二氯酚(2,4-dichlorophenol,简称2,4-DCP)具有"三致"作用及潜在的生态风险,其光化学降解机理及产物的生态毒理效应目前成为人们关注的焦点。本研究采用理论化学计算手段,系统阐明了2,4-DCP在水环境中·OH介导的间接光化学转化机理、动力学和转化产物的生态毒性变化特征。结果表明2,4-DCP很容易被·OH氧化降解,其降解主要通过·OH-加成和H-迁移路径进行。在低温条件下·OH-加成路径将占主导,主要形成4,6-二氯苯-1,3-二酚;而当温度超过313 K时,·OH提取酚羟基上的氢原子为主要降解途径,主要形成2-氯苯-对苯醌。尤其在活性物种浓度较低的高温环境中,H-迁移路径有可能生成二噁英。计算毒理学结果表明:H-迁移产物的水生毒性超过·OH-加成产物,甚至超出母体2,4-DCP一个毒性等级。因此,我们建议在以后的环境监测以及风险评估过程中,关注2,4-DCP及其转化产物特别是H-迁移路径的转化产物的生态毒理学问题。     

Assessing sustainability: An assessment framework to evaluate Agenda 21 actions at the local level

In Switzerland, communities are encouraged to define and to report on local Agenda 21. This paper presents an analysis framework to help local communities set sustainable development priorities and to follow through with appropriate actions. Four Swiss communities, from the French-speaking part of Switzerland, actively follow the project: Lausanne (114 304 citizens), Vevey (15 364 citizens), Mannens-Grandsivaz (505 citizens) and Essertines/Yverdon (666 citizens). The analysis framework developed is constituted of four interdependent fields: the societal characteristics, the individual or collective behaviours, the end objectives or sustainability impacts and the inhabitant's perception of these three fields. The link between society and behaviour can be studied through sociological analyses. The link between behaviour and environmental impact can be established thanks to Life Cycle analysis and Input/Output analyses. At each level, sustainable development indicators can be defined. As an application of the framework, the citizen energy consumption has been studied and expressed in energy slaves (= 3150 MJ/Year). A Swiss citizen needs altogether 69 slaves, 20 for his private consumption of goods and services, 19 for housing, 11 for transport, I1 for food and 8 for his consumption of public goods. If one fifth of the inhabitants of Lausanne, wanting to live closer to nature, actually moved out of town, the region would need 10 436 more slaves for 3500 persons happily living in the countryside.     

An enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system based on fuzzy-set approach: I. Theoretical framework and model development

Multimedia environmental modeling is extremely complex due to the intricacy of the systems with the consideration of many related factors. Traditional environmental multimedia models (EMMs) are usually based on one-dimensional and first-order assumptions, which may cause numerical errors in the simulation results. In this study, a new user-friendly fuzzy-set enhanced environmental multimedia modeling system (FEEMMS) is developed, and includes four key modules: an air dispersion module, a polluting source module, an unsaturated zone module, and a groundwater module. Many improvements over previous EMMs have been achieved through dynamically quantifying the intermedia mass flux; incorporating fuzzy-set approach into environmental multimedia modeling system (EMMS); and designing a user-friendly graphic user interface (GUI). The developed FEEMMS can be a useful tool in estimating the time-varying and spatial-varying chemical concentrations in air, soil, and groundwater; characterizing the potential risk to human health presented by contaminants released from a contaminated site; and quantifying the uncertainties associated with modeling systems and subsequently providing robustness and flexibility for the remediation-related decision making.     

基于3D框架的长三角城市群工业污染物排放研究

为了厘清主要经济地理要素与城市群工业污染物排放量的关系,引入新经济地理学3D——density(密度)、distance(距离)、division(分工/分割)框架,并采用该框架系统分析主要经济地理要素与长三角城市群污染物排放量之间的关系. 结果表明:①地均GDP对长三角城市群工业污染物排放量均存在显著影响,与工业SO₂、废水和烟粉尘排放量的弹性系数分别为0.027、2.080和1.014. ②综合交通距离对工业废水和烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响,弹性系数分别为-1.638和-0.625,而心理距离对污染物排放量未产生显著影响. ③分工/分割要素对城市群工业污染物排放量的影响各不相同. 外商直接投资对工业SO₂、废水、烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响,制造业专业化指数仅对工业SO₂和烟粉尘排放量有显著影响,而进出口总额占GDP比重与工业废水和烟粉尘排放量存在显著影响. ④长三角城市群工业污染物排放量与地均GDP、外商直接投资呈正相关,与综合交通距离、制造业专业化指数和进出口总额占GDP比重呈负相关,缓解长三角城市群工业污染物排放困境,不仅要适度控制经济发展速度和提高外资进入的环境标准,还应进一步优化长三角城市群在国内外市场上的分工和协作地位.