growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

论生态城市与滨海型生态城市的建设

生态城市是实现可持续发展的重要基础。20世纪90年代以来，随着我国城市化进程的加快，生态城市开始成为人们聚焦的一个热点。本文就如何科学把握生态城市的内涵，如何正确设计和评价生态城市建设，以及滨海型生态城市建设目标等方面进行了探讨和研究。     

“新三农”视域下中国耕地利用的可持续集约化：概念认知与研究框架

耕地利用的可持续集约化为保障粮食安全、农业绿色发展和资源永续利用提供了新思路,对于深化农民主体地位、夯实农业发展的现代化导向、破解“新三农”复杂的问题集合具有重要的现实意义。系统梳理国外可持续集约化的思想缘起,辨析可持续集约化的内涵差异,厘清“新三农”视域下中国耕地利用可持续集约化的逻辑本源;基于要素融合—结构重整—功能优化的运行轨迹,遵循耕地利用系统过程—格局—机制—效应的逻辑进路,尝试从学理辨析、水平测度、演化机理和优化调控等方面厘清耕地利用系统基本问题域并阐释其研究主题,构建耕地利用可持续集约化的研究框架。探索性提出未来研究需重点关注的农业生态空间—人地关系—耕地利用可持续集约化等科学问题,探讨因素+机理、功能+系统、过程+格局、尺度+界面的关键路径。     

论地缘能权

权力与空间是透视与解析能源地缘政治、能源安全、国际能源合作与全球能源治理等问题的重要视角。从能源的基本地理属性出发,探讨能源的地缘政治属性,提出地缘能权的概念,阐述地缘能权的基本理论内涵,并借鉴经典地理学理论,提出地缘能权研究的地理学框架。研究认为：资源控制权、贸易控制权、技术控制权和资本控制权是最核心的四种能源权力。其中,资源控制权与贸易控制权是传统能源地缘政治的核心,技术控制权和资本控制权是新时代能源权力关注的新焦点,而经济全球化、区域一体化和全球能源治理等因素拓展了地缘能权的外延。从地理学的视角对地缘能权进行研究,其基本范式离不开能源地理的分布规律研究,能源权力从地点空间向流空间的转向研究,能源行为体的相互关系与全球能源治理研究以及面向国家能源安全的决策服务研究。     

我国自然资源核算的实践进展与理论体系构建

加强自然资源核算理论研究与实践工作是完善自然资源治理体系和提升治理能力的基础。基于WSR“物理、事理、人理”方法论,对自然资源核算理论和文献开展研究,探索构建我国的自然资源核算体系。研究结果表明：WSR系统方法论适宜于自然资源核算分析;基于WSR系统分析,自然资源核算体系结构包括宏观的以服务于宏观经济规划和经济决策为目的的自然资源国民经济核算,中观的以服务于政府资产管理为目的的自然资源资产管理核算,微观的以服务于企业自然资源资产经营和市场要素配置为目的的企业经营性自然资源会计核算;基于WSR方法构建的自然资源核算体系有助于明晰各层次核算目的、核算框架、实现途径、核算方法上的选择。     

浙江省企业环境保护社会责任制度建设探索

通过分析国内外企业环境保护社会责任的发展现状、存在问题和浙江省开展企业社会责任试点工作的主要做法,主要从政府、企业、公众3个方面来构建了浙江省企业环境保护社会责任制度框架。构建制度框架的关键重点不在于制定新的政策与机制,而是将现有的企业自愿性政策与政府的强制性政策相配套与整合,并进行适当的补充。从而形成综合的制度框架。制度框架的最终目的在于,充分发挥政府的引导和推动作用、发挥企业的主体作用、发挥行业协会商会等组织的自律作用、发动社会各方广泛参与,着力构建政府引导、企业自愿、行业自律、社会监督“四位一体”的企业环境保护社会责任推进机制。     

从生态文明理论探索看我国文明发展走势

生态文明本质上是一种协调发展的和谐性的文明。建设生态文明是马克思主义所要建立的新社会的内在要求,是人类对如何实现与自然界之间的协调与稳定做出的新结论。生态文明建设是一个复杂的、系统的工程,自然生态、精神生态和社会生态是生态文明的三个核心维度。     

某高校不同类型教室声环境特点实验研究

目的:通过对北京市某高校的九类异形教室的混响时间测量和理论分析,研究不同长宽高之比的教室的混响时间的规律,从而为学校教学楼的声学设计提供依据。方法:实验主要应用01dBSolo声级计对某高校的九类不同类型教室的空场和满场混响时间进行测量,并通过SPSS统计软件分析测得数据,并进行回归分析。结论:九类不同长宽高之比的教室测量值并不遵循理论计算值和推荐值,其测量值呈现一定的规律,呈三次曲线(Cubic)分布。     

Integration of fuzzy reliability analysis and consequence simulation to conduct risk assessment

Losses of containment within the natural gas network, located in most populated areas, could cause environmental damage, injuries, or even death. Accordingly, it is pivotal to adopt proper approaches to assess and mitigate the risk arising from potential losses. Within this context, it is required to exploit solid reliability and consequence analysis techniques. To this end, this paper presents a methodology established on the integration of a Fuzzy Bayesian Network and consequence simulation. The Bayesian Network is more flexible and realistic than classic approaches because it can consider conditional probabilities and prior information. Furthermore, Leaky Noisy-OR Gates are exploited to allow an easier filling of the Conditional Probability Tables. This task is performed through expert elicitation, adopting Intuitionistic Fuzzy Set Theory and Similarity Aggregation Method. Finally, the severity analysis is performed via a software, named Safeti, which provides an accurate evaluation of the consequences. To show the applicability of the framework, a pressure regulator of a Natural Gas Regulating and Metering Station is considered as case study. The proposed approach can assist asset managers in evaluating the risk arising from the operations, and, accordingly, it can guide them in making maintenance-related decisions to assure the safety of the operations.     

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN THE MIDDLE EAST1

ABSTRACT: Water is, and most likely will continue to be, one of the main concerns and potential causes of instability in the Middle East (ME). The contribution of the existing renewable water resources is limited and can not fulfill the long-term projected gap between water supply and demand for most of the countries in the ME. An integrated regional approach for fulfilling this gap was preferred. A regional institutional framework was proposed for the implementation of this integrated regional approach and consists of a regional water board operating through three units for technical, implementation, and management aspects of project and activities. An analysis of the regional water supply and demand development, the design and policy making of the proposed institution, technology and water markets, cooperation, actors and beneficiaries, finances, and expected obstacles and constraints to the establishment and sustainable operation of the proposed institution are included.