SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF USING ARMAX MODELS1

ABSTRACT: Time series models of the ARMAX class were investigated for use in forecasting daily riverflow resulting from combined snowmelt/rainfall. The Snowmelt Runoff Model (Martinec-Rango Model) is shown to have a form similar to the ARMAX model. The advantage of the ARMAX approach is that analytical model identification and parameter estimation techniques are available. In addition, previous forecast errors can be included to improve forecasts and confidence limits can be estimated for the forecasts. Diagnostic checks are available to determine if the model is performing properly. Finally, Kalman filtering can be used to allow the model parameters to vary continuously to reflect changing basin runoff conditions. The above advantages result in improved flow forecasts with fewer model parameters.     

绵阳市大气降水pH值时空分布及酸雨成因研究

通过对绵阳市9个测点1998－1999年大气降水监测数据的统计分析，并结合历史数据，对大气降水pH值的时空分布及酸雨成因进行了研究。结果表明：绵阳市大气降水酸化严重，除主要受本地区大气污染影响外，还受大气中、长距离输送的影响。     

快速断电安全技术中半导体中性点开关结构性能的研究

对我国目前半导体中性点开关的结构 ,工作过程 ,性能进行了分析 ;现行中性点开关所存在的问题为电路拓扑结构不合理 ,关断时间过长或过短 ,过长不满足快速断电安全技术的要求 ,过短又易引起过电压 ,使中性点开关失控。笔者提出了采用绝缘门极双极性晶体管 (IGBT) ,构成半导体中性点开关的可行方案。同时指出 ,开发新型快速断电安全技术装置 ,将大大提高我国煤矿安全技术水平     

高层建筑火灾人员疏散和人员伤亡的模拟

基于建筑火灾全风网网络模型的基础上 ,结合紧急疏散模型 ,模拟火灾时期疏散时间和建筑物内人员滞留的情况 ,同时也可以模拟可能出现的伤亡情况 ,有助于高层建筑的疏散系统设计 ,为火灾的再现提供了一个有效的分析工具 ,也为高层建筑火灾的风险评价提供了理论数据     

陕西大暴雨时空分布特征及减灾对策

通过对陕西１９５７～１９９８年共４２年９７个测站的逐日降水量中大暴雨资料进行时间和空间尺度分析，总结归纳出陕西灾害性大暴雨的天气气候基本特征和规律性，并提出相应的减灾对策。     

THE OPTIMAL TIME TO START THE OPERATION OF A DESALTING PLANT IN ISRAEL1

The study contains the methodology of finding the optimal time to start the operation of a desalting plant or any other non conventional source of water for agricultural use in Israel. The essence of the methodology is the moving equilibrium price and quantity of agricultural products. The market of agricultural products is represented by a single demand curve and a supply curve which is derived from the agricultural sector production function. Both the demand for and the supply of agricultural products functions are shifting over time. The marginal value product of water is the critical value that determines the optimal time of a desalting plant. The study is static in the sense that dynamic aspects per se are not dealt with-e.g. learning by doing of building and operating desalting plants. The empirical results although used for illustrative purposes can be used as reference points for other detailed and more ‘exact’ studies on water desalination.     

Scientist and policy-maker response types and times in suburban watersheds

Differences between scientist and policy-maker response types and times, or the “how” and “when” of action, constrain effective water resource management in suburbanizing watersheds. Policy-makers are often rushed to find a single policy that can be applied across an entire, homogeneous, geopolitical region, whereas scientists undertake multiyear research projects to appreciate the complex interactions occurring within heterogeneous catchments. As a result, watershed management is often practiced with science and policy out of synch. Meanwhile, development pressures in suburban watersheds create changes in the social and physical fabric and pose a moving target for science and policy. Recent and anticipated advances in the scientific understanding of urbanized catchment hydrology and pollutant transport suggest that management should become increasingly sensitive to spatial heterogeneities in watershed features, such as soil types, terrain slopes, and seasonal watertable profiles. Toward this end, policy-makers should encourage funding scientific research that characterizes the impacts of these watershed heterogeneities within a geopolitical zoning and development framework.     

近场地震作用下框架结构的损伤机理

首先讨论了近场地面运动的特征及各种抗震规范对近场地震的设防，然后采用非线性时程分析方法，对一个10层框架结构在近场地震作用下的响应特性进行了研究。同时对该框架结构进行了Pushover分析，通过与非线性时程分析结果进行对比，说明Pushover分析方法不能正确评估结构在近场地震作用下的抗震性能。     

Time series in M dimensions: The one-dimensional case: Pollution in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal

A nonstationary time-series model is used to examine the changes occurring at sampling stations on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Using data from upstream sampling sites, downstream levels of dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids, nitrates and nitrites, and ammonia are accurately predicted. The method is simple, insensitive to extreme values, and responsive to changes in the system.