Spatial Patterns of Breeding Success of Grizzly Bears Derived from Hierarchical Multistate Models

Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low‐elevation wetlands or mid‐elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to <2%. The probability of breeding grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy—herbaceous alpine ecotones—were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. Patrones Espaciales del Éxito Reproductivo de Osos Pardos, Derivados de Modelos Jerárquicos Multi‐Estado     

State of research on the automation of HAZOP studies

For more than 30 years, multiple research groups have worked on the automation of hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies, or more specifically on the hazard identification process. So far, very few of these approaches have been used in the chemical process industry. Automatic hazard identification is a knowledge-intensive process that demands high standards with regard to the way in which knowledge is stored and made available. There are various suitable approaches to the qualitative modeling of processes and plants, which are the foundation for reasoning systems that are used for the identification of hazards. Additionally, there are quantitative methods that are based on process simulations and can be used to identify potential hazards. The investigation of the state of research demonstrates that there are sophisticated technologies for automated systems that include powerful reasoning techniques. The benefits and shortcomings of existing technologies are discussed with regard to their industrial applicability. Often, the quality of the necessary specific and generic knowledge is not sufficient to detect potential hazardous events and operational malfunctions. Computer-aided HAZOP systems should be integrated with computer-aided design- or process simulation software using common data models based on the digital representation of the process plant. In order to be used by HAZOP practitioners automated systems need to be comprehensive, serve as specialized decision support systems, and be tested and evaluated using round robin tests.     

制革废水和印染废水的综合毒性评估及鉴别

研究采用成组生物毒性试验(发光菌急性毒性、斑马鱼幼鱼急性毒性,斑马鱼胚胎发育毒性和小球藻急性毒性),结合理化指标,通过毒性单位、平均毒性(average toxicity,Av Tx)、毒性指数(toxic print,Tx Pr)、最敏感的测试(most sensitive test,MST)和潜在毒性效应指数(potential ecotoxic effects probe,PEEP)对不同工艺阶段印染及制革废水进行毒性削减评估.结果表明PEEP能兼顾废水排放量与毒性效应,更为客观地表征了废水综合毒性,PEEP评价结果显示制革废水和印染废水的毒性削减率分别达到36.8%和23.2%.最后,以发光菌作为受试生物,采用毒性鉴别评估(toxicity identification evaluation,TIE)技术,对印染废水进行毒性鉴别.结果表明,印染废水中主要的致毒物质为非极性有机污染,其次为可滤性化合物,然后是重金属、氧化性物质以及挥发性物质.     

台州市大气PM_(2.5)中PAHs的污染特征与毒性评价

使用中流量颗粒物采样器采集台州市2015—2016年大气PM_(2.5)样品,利用气相色谱-质谱仪对样品中16种多环芳烃(PAHs)进行分析,研究PAHs的污染特征及可能来源。结果显示:PAHs总浓度为(20.69±4.84)ng/m3,浓度季节变化大小顺序依次为冬季>春季>秋季>夏季,空间变化为商住区>工业区>背景点。PM_(2.5)中PAHs以高环为主(≥4环),占86%。不同季节商住区和工业区PAHs(4环)含量均略高于背景点,PAHs(5~6环)的含量商住区略高于工业区和背景点。PAHs环数分布和比值法结果表明台州市大气PM_(2.5)中PAHs的主要来源是机动车尾气和燃煤。成年人和儿童的终生超额致癌风险(ILCR)分别为8.02×10-7和5.61×10-7,表明台州市PM_(2.5)中PAHs对人体健康影响在可接受范围内。     

锑对土壤跳虫(Folsomia candida)的毒性效应

为了解Sb（锑）对土壤无脊椎动物的毒性效应及对比不同类型土壤中Sb毒性的差异,选取死亡率、逃避率、繁殖数三组个体水平的评价指标研究了3种典型土壤（海伦黑土、祁阳红壤、北京潮土）中外源添加Sb对模式生物——跳虫（Folsomia candida）的急性毒性和慢性毒性效应.结果表明,基于实测w（Sb_总）求得的上述3种土壤中Sb影响跳虫逃避的2 d-EC₅₀（EC₅₀为半数效应浓度）分别为298、>431[高于土壤中最高w（Sb_总）]和132 mg/kg;影响跳虫死亡的7 d-LC₅₀（LC₅₀为半数致死浓度）分别为3 352、4 007、2 105 mg/kg;影响跳虫死亡的28 d-LC₅₀分别为2 271、1 865、703 mg/kg,影响跳虫繁殖的28 d-EC₅₀分别为1 799、1 323、307 mg/kg.由上述毒性阈值大小可知,跳虫逃避率的敏感性高于死亡率和繁殖数的敏感性,不同土壤中Sb对跳虫的毒性大小具有显著差异,北京潮土中Sb对跳虫的毒性与海伦黑土、祁阳红壤相比最大差别接近6倍,表明不同土壤理化性质对Sb生态毒性效应具有显著影响.但基于w（Sb_水提）求得的上述3种土壤中Sb的毒性阈值差异减小,说明水提态Sb与其毒性具有显著相关性,可以较好地解释不同土壤间Sb毒性的差异.该研究结果可为建立我国土壤中Sb的毒性预测模型及制订Sb的质量标准值提供依据.      

基于可靠性统计分析法的制导弹药储存寿命评估

针对制导弹药价格昂贵而无法采用大规模性能试验和实弹射击方法进行可靠性研究的问题,采用可靠性统计分析法对制导弹药储存寿命进行评估。通过建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命模型,并以制导弹药火工品中的待发程控装置为研究对象,运用Bayes法对试验数据出现的＂倒挂＂现象进行了修正。依据修正后的试验数据进行计算,得到了在一定置信度下待发程控装置的储存寿命。     

水泥窑协同处置危废生产熟料的性能研究

取自华新水泥厂协同处理危废生产的水泥熟料,掺入5％的石膏进行球磨使比表面积达到350±10m^2／kg制备熟料样品,测定和分析了样品的矿物和化学成分以及其砂浆成型后的物理性能和浸出毒性。结果表明：熟料样品的矿物成分主要有硅酸三钙、硅酸二钙、铝酸三钙、铁铝酸四钙和石膏,并且凝结时间正常,强度达到52．5等级以上,对重金属有很好的固化作用,浸出毒性均远低于国标的限值。水泥窑协同处置危废对缓解生态环境的压力有很好的发展前景。     

道化学公司指数法在罐区安全评价中的应用

采用道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数法对中国石化某厂综合储罐区进行安全评价,得出了其安全措施补偿前后的火灾、爆炸指数（F＆EI）、危险等级、暴露半径、暴露面积以及暴露体积等。结果表明,该企业综合储罐区采取的安全措施较为适用,能降低火灾、爆炸事故发生的概率和事故损害．     

基于耦合协同理论的泥石流危险性评价研究

泥石流地质灾害是降雨、松散物源和自然地理条件共同作用的结果,在泥石流暴发形成过程中,降雨条件、物源条件和自然地理条件三者之间存在着复杂的耦合关系,各要素之间相互作用、协同演化。因此,根据系统耦合协同理论和熵值赋权理论,本文建立泥石流暴发系统的耦合协调评价模型,并对重庆市北碚区典型泥石流单沟进行了耦合协调程度和危险性评价,评价结果与泥石流暴发的实际情况相吻合,能够为泥石流灾害的预防提供理论支撑。