危险化学品大气污染事故模拟

近年来国内突发性危险化学品大气污染事故频繁发生,为及时做出风险评估及救援决策,需要在事故初发阶段快速模拟确定其危害程度和范围。以东部沿海地区某一假想化工厂突发性泄漏事故为例,对其可能的危害范围进行模拟,采用WRF-CALMET模式模拟事故区域的高分辨率气象场,耦合随机模式模拟污染物的扩散过程。结果表明,WRF能精确地模拟1 km分辨率的近地面气象场的演变趋势。将该结果用于CALMET模式获得了高分辨率风场数据,再输入随机模式中进行扩散模拟,结果显示该模式能合理地模拟出污染物的危害范围及地面最高浓度。     

Health-related quality of life 24 months after sustaining a minor musculoskeletal injury in a road traffic crash: A prospective cohort study

Objectives: A better understanding of the long-term factors that independently predict poorer quality of life following mild to moderate musculoskeletal injuries is needed. We aimed to establish the predictors of quality of life (including sociodemographic, health, psychosocial, and pre-injury factors) 24 months after a noncatastrophic road traffic injury.

Methods: In a prospective cohort study of 252 participants with mild/moderate injury sustained in a road traffic crash, quality of life was measured 24 months following the baseline survey. A telephone-administered questionnaire obtained information on various potential explanatory variables. Health-related quality of life was measured using the European Quality of Life–5 Dimensions (EQ-5D) and Medical Outcomes Survey Short Form–12 (SF-12). Multivariable linear regression analyses determined the associations between explanatory variables and quality of life measures.

Results: Mean SF-12 physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary (MCS) scores increased by 7.3 and 2.5 units, respectively, from baseline to 24-month follow-up. Each 10-year increase in baseline age was independently associated with 3.1-unit (P < .001) and 1.5-unit (P = .001) decrease in EQ Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) and SF-12 PCS scores at follow-up, respectively. Poor/fair compared to excellent pre-injury health was associated with a 0.16-, 21.3-, and 11.5-unit decrease in EQ-5D summary (P = .03), VAS scores (P = .001), and SF-12 PCS scores (P < .001), respectively. Baseline pain severity ratings and pain catastrophizing scores were inversely associated with 24-month EQ VAS scores (both P < .001). Each unit increase in baseline pain score (P = .001) and pain catastrophizing score (P = .02) was associated with a 1.0- and 4.6-unit decrease in SF-12 MCS scores at 24 months, respectively. Other observed predictors of quality of life measures (EQ-5D summary and/or VAS scores and/ or SF-12 MCS) included marital status, smoking, hospital admission, pre-injury health (anxiety/depression and chronic illness), and whiplash injury.

Conclusion: Sociodemographic indicators, pre-injury health, and biopsychosocial correlates were independently associated with health-related quality of life 24 months following a noncatastrophic road traffic crash injury.     

Understanding the context of alcohol impaired driving for fatal crash–involved drivers: A descriptive case analysis

Objective: The objective of this study was to understand the social context and circumstances surrounding alcohol-impaired driving prior to fatal crash involvement for drivers with an illegal blood alcohol concentration (BAC ≥ 0.05 g/100 ml or 0.00 g/100 ml for restricted license holders).

Methods: Coroners' case reports investigating fatal crashes in South Australia over a 3-year period (2008–2010) were examined. The personal and crash characteristics of drivers with an illegal BAC were compared with those who had a legal BAC. For each driver with an illegal BAC, information was recorded including characteristics of last trip, location and social context of alcohol consumption, quantity and type of alcohol consumed, BAC level, presence of drugs, perceived alcohol intoxication, and alcohol dependence. Official traffic offense records were also obtained.

Results: Of the 284 fatal crashes included in the study, 34% (n = 95) involved a driver or rider with an illegal BAC. Prior to the crash, alcohol was most frequently consumed by drivers in rural areas, within private homes, and was part of normal social activities. Drivers recorded a high level of alcohol impairment, with a mean BAC of 0.173 g/100 ml and a level of alcohol dependence that was above the Australian national average (7.4 vs. 3.9%). In addition, 23% of drivers were known to be experiencing psychological stress at the time of the crash. The results also confirm that drink driving recidivism continues to be a significant problem, with 44% of drivers recording at least one prior alcohol driving offense.

Conclusions: Alcohol-impaired driving continues to be a leading cause of fatal crashes. The popularity of drinking at home, particularly in rural areas, has implications for police enforcement strategies and suggests that drink driving interventions that focus on community values and looking after friends might be beneficial. Importantly, the study highlights the need for a broader holistic approach to reduce the high levels of alcohol consumption and alcohol dependence underlying drink driving behavior.     

Impact of improving vehicle front design on the burden of pedestrian injuries in Germany,the United States,and India

Objective: European car design regulations and New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) ratings have led to reductions in pedestrian injuries. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of improving vehicle front design on mortality and morbidity due to pedestrian injuries in a European country (Germany) and 2 countries (the United States and India) that do not have pedestrian-focused NCAP testing or design regulations.

Methods: We used data from the International Road Traffic and Accident Database and the Global Burden of Disease project to estimate baseline pedestrian deaths and nonfatal injuries in each country in 2013. The effect of improved passenger car star ratings on probability of pedestrian injury was based on recent evaluations of pedestrian crash data from Germany. The effect of improved heavy motor vehicle (HMV) front end design on pedestrian injuries was based on estimates reported by simulation studies. We used burden of disease methods to estimate population health loss by combining the burden of morbidity and mortality in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost.

Results: Extrapolating from evaluations in Germany suggests that improving front end design of cars can potentially reduce the burden of pedestrian injuries due to cars by up to 24% in the United States and 41% in India. In Germany, where cars comply with the United Nations regulation on pedestrian safety, additional improvements would have led to a 1% reduction. Similarly, improved HMV design would reduce DALYs lost by pedestrian victims hit by HMVs by 20% in each country. Overall, improved vehicle design would reduce DALYs lost to road traffic injuries (RTIs) by 0.8% in Germany, 4.1% in the United States, and 6.7% in India.

Conclusions: Recent evaluations show a strong correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian scores and real-life pedestrian injuries, suggesting that improved car front end design in Europe has led to substantial reductions in pedestrian injuries. Although the United States has fewer pedestrian crashes, it would nevertheless benefit substantially by adopting similar regulations and instituting pedestrian NCAP testing. The maximum benefit would be realized in low- and middle-income countries like India that have a high proportion of pedestrian crashes. Though crash avoidance technologies are being developed to protect pedestrians, supplemental protection through design regulations may significantly improve injury countermeasures for vulnerable road users.     

环境规制对碳排放时空格局演变的作用路径研究——基于东北三省地级市实证分析

基于2005-2016年东北三省36个地级市面板数据,定性分析环境规制与碳排放的时空格局演变特征,并利用中介效应分析法定量研究环境规制对碳排放的影响及作用路径。结果表明：（1）从各城市对比来看,环境规制强度呈现出明显的市域差异,碳排放量呈先增加后减小态势。（2）从空间格局来看,环境规制强度呈现由北向南逐渐增强的态势,区域间差异逐渐增大。环境规制的高水平类型分布集中,城市数量最多;低水平类型均位于黑龙江省北部,城市数量最少。碳排放量的高水平类型集中分布在辽东半岛以及大庆市和吉林市等石油型、冶金型城市,低水平类型城市数量呈波动增加,主要分布在东北北部,且向南逐渐扩散。（3）东北三省严格的环境规制不仅直接抑制碳排放,也可以通过优化产业结构和精简粗放投资间接抑制碳排放,地方政府竞争则会减弱环境规制对碳排放的抑制效应。     

覆膜方式和灌溉对夏玉米产量及农田碳排放强度的影响

为探讨不同覆膜方式和灌溉对夏玉米农田产量和温室气体排放的影响,本研究设计了雨养(R)和灌溉(I)这两个主处理,对照(CK)、半膜覆盖(HM)和全膜覆盖(FM)这3个副处理,利用静态暗箱-气相色谱法监测了2014和2015年土壤CO_2、CH_4和N_2O的排放通量,并借助碳排放强度(GHGI)指标进一步评价了不同覆膜方式的固碳减排效果.结果表明,与RCK相比,RHM和RFM在2014年增产作用不明显,而2015年分别增加19. 6%和26. 8%;与ICK相比,IHM增产作用不显著,而IFM在2014和2015年均显著增产,达到14. 1%和55. 8%.灌溉仅对2015年CO_2排放有显著促进作用(P 0. 01),同一主处理下覆膜方式对CO_2排放没有显著影响(P 0. 05).灌溉对CH_4吸收没有显著影响(P 0. 05),覆膜对CH_4吸收具有抑制作用. ICK相比RCK,N_2O排放量仅在2015年存在显著性差异,显著减少了22. 3%;与RCK相比,RHM和RFM在2014年N_2O排放量差异不显著,2015年分别显著降低了50. 7%和51. 4%; IHM和IFM与ICK相比,2014年N_2O排放分别显著减少了47. 5%和54. 2%,2015年分别减少了9. 6%和52. 2%.灌溉可以通过提高产量从而显著降低GHGI;与RCK相比,RHM和RFM的GHGI仅在2015年显著降低,分别达到60. 1%和61. 7%;与ICK相比,IHM和IFM在2014年GHGI分别显著降低了39. 7%和53. 2%,2015年分别降低了22. 2%和67. 5%,即全膜覆盖降低GHGI的效果优于半膜覆盖.因此,对夏玉米种植而言,灌溉条件下全膜覆盖能保证作物高产稳产并降低农田碳排放强度.     

芜湖市交通区表层土壤多环芳烃与黑碳研究

采集芜湖市交通区和对照绿地共40个表层土壤（0~5cm）样品.应用气相色谱-质谱联用仪（GC-MS）测定样品中26种多环芳烃（PAHs）及甲基多环芳烃的浓度,应用化学热氧化法（CTO-375,BC_CTO）、湿化学氧化法（K₂Cr₂O₇/H₂SO₄,BC_Cr）分别测定样品中黑碳（BC）的含量,分析交通区表层土壤PAHs、BC的分布特征、影响区域、相互关系,并利用石油污染指标、多特征比值、正定矩阵因子分解法（PMF）对表层土壤样品中的PAHs进行来源解析.结果表明：表层土壤中PAHs、BC_Cr、BC_CTO的含量均值分别为3.63μg/g,10.23g/kg,2.93g/kg,浓度范围分别为0.075~28.76μg/g,3.78~27.13g/kg,1.07~10.36g/kg.土壤中PAHs、BC的浓度受距路远近影响,距路越近,浓度越高;且呈现出重要交通节点、路口 > 干路、支路 > 绿地的趋势,干支路无显著差异;车流量不是影响交通区土壤PAHs、BC浓度的决定因素,车辆的运行状态是其主导因素.土壤中PAHs以中高环为主.表层土壤中PAHs与两类BC都具有较好的相关性,对照绿地相关性不显著,表明BC对PAHs在土壤中的累积有重要影响,但受其他因素干扰.源解析表明表层土壤样品中PAHs主要来源于交通源.     

Working conditions and sleepiness while driving among truck drivers

Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the role of working conditions as predictors of sleepiness while driving among truck drivers.

Methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out among truck drivers who transported grains to Paranaguá Port, Paraná, Brazil. The truck drivers were interviewed and completed a self-administered questionnaire to collect data on sociodemographic and behavioral variables, working conditions, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep patterns. Drivers were considered to be sleepy while driving if they reported a medium or high probability of napping while driving at night, during the daytime, or while stopped in traffic. The statistical analysis used logistic regression models progressively adjusted for age, behavioral variables, sleep duration, and other working conditions.

Results: In total, 670 male drivers, with a mean age of 41.9 (±11.1) years, were enrolled. The prevalence of sleepiness while driving was 31.5%. After model adjustments, the following working conditions were associated with sleepiness while driving: Distance from the last shipment of more than 1,000?km (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–2.23) and a formal labor contract with a productivity-based salary (OR = 2.65; 95% CI, 1.86–3.78). Consumption of illicit psychoactive substances (OR = 1.99; 95% CI, 1.14–3.47) was also associated with sleepiness while driving.

Conclusions: Distance traveled and a formal labor contract with productivity-based earnings were the working conditions associated with sleepiness while driving, regardless of other working or behavioral characteristics, age, consumption of illicit psychoactive substances, and sleep duration.     

论生产安全事故救援费用的承担机制

为了实现重大生产安全事故救援费用的公平负担,保障救援机制的可持续性,通过规范分析和比较分析,探讨了在第三方队伍参与救援的情况下,重大生产安全事故救援费用的承担原则和实现机制。研究结果表明:第三方队伍参与事故救援所产生的当次费用原则上必须由事故责任单位承担,但在其拖欠费用或者暂时缺乏支付能力的情况下,应当由承担应急救援职责的事发地政府先行垫付;由此在事发地政府和事故责任单位之间产生的是公法之债,可以通过行政强制执行的方式加以追偿。