火电厂液氨贮存风险评价中典型事故影响范围计算

对火电厂液氨贮存风险评价中的三类典型事故（化学爆炸、管道泄漏和贮罐整体破裂）影响范围的计算方法进行了探讨。以某火电厂2×1000MW机组为例,当发生化学爆炸事故时,爆炸冲击波损害等级1、2、3、4的影响区域半径分别为78.3、156.6、391.5和1044m;管道泄漏和贮罐整体破裂所引发的中毒事故中,后者对环境的影响较大。若事故发生后10min内得到有效控制,则在F大气稳定度、1.5m/s风速条件下,贮罐整体破裂半致死浓度的影响区域半径（r值）为344.6m,大于管道泄漏r值（205.8m）;若事故发生后不考虑控制措施,则在F大气稳定度、1.5 m/s风速条件下,贮罐整体破裂半致死浓度的影响区域半径r值为561 m。     

Can we remove iodine-131 from tap water in Japan by boiling? - Experimental testing in response to the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident

Iodine-131 concentrations in tap water higher than 100 Bq L⁻¹ were reported by several local governments in Japan following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Some individuals in the emergency-response community recommended the boiling of tap water to remove iodine-131. However, the tap water boiling tests in this study showed no iodine-131 loss from the tap water with either short-term boiling (1-10 min) or prolonged boiling (up to 30 min) resulting in up to 3-fold volume reductions. In this situation, boiling was shown to be not effective in removing iodine-131 from tap water; indeed even higher concentrations may result from the liquid-volume reduction accompanying this process.     

公路经营企业交通噪声污染损害民事责任探析

公路经营企业应对道路交通噪声污染损害承担环境侵权责任。污染损害可归责的程度应以医学观察的可证明性为界限,在违法性和损害事实考量中,环境标准均非所问。公路经营企业的责任形式主要包括排除危害和赔偿损失。基于环境侵权的利益衡量原则,一般不宜直接判令采取公路关闭或改道等形式排除危害,而应适用设置隔声屏障、种植绿化林带、进行交通管制等调和性的"部分排除侵害"责任形式。在"先有路后有房"情景下,公路经营企业是否承担责任因受害人迁入公害时主观方面的不同而不同。受害人明知或已经预见到有遭受噪声污染的危险,且无正当理由而自愿、故意承受危险致害者,公路经营企业得根据自甘冒险原则请求拒绝排除危害、免除赔偿或减少赔偿额。     

北京市交通道路空气中NOx的污染现状及时空变化规律研究

基于2008年及2009年分4个季节对北京市3种类型道路（开阔型、交叉路口型和峡谷型）空气中的NOx的现场监测结果,分析了3种类型道路空气中NOx的污染现状和时空变化规律及影响因素。实验结果表明,昼间北京市各类型街道空气中NOx浓度呈早晚浓度高、中午浓度低的变化规律,NOx浓度随季节和车流量变化较明显。交通道路空气中NO占NOx的分担率高,且有较好的相关性,而NO2分担率较低,与NOx相关性较差。     

The relation of non-culpable traffic incidents to bus drivers' celeration behavior

PROBLEM: The driver celeration behavior theory predicts that celerations are associated with incidents for which the driver has some responsibility in causing, but not other incidents. METHOD: The hypothesis was tested in 25 samples of repeated measurements of bus drivers' celeration behavior against their incidents for two years. RESULTS: The results confirmed the prediction; in 18 samples, the correlation for culpable incidents only was higher than for all incidents, despite the higher means of the latter. Non-culpable incidents had correlations close to zero with celeration. DISCUSSION: It was pointed out that most individual crash prediction studies have not made this differentiation, and thus probably yielded underestimates of the associations sought, although the effect is not strong, due to non-culpable accident involvements being few (less than a third of the total). The methods for correct identification of culpable incident involvements were discussed.     

基于灰色BP网络的火灾事故预测

将BP网络模型与灰色系统预测方法相结合,利用人工神经网络对GM(1,1)模型进行残差修正,建立了火灾事故预测模型.该模型兼具灰色系统与BP网络的优点,不但能体现火灾复杂的灰色系统行为,又能根据每次学习误差的不同调整学习速率,加快收敛速度.与单一的GM(1,1)模型相比,该模型预测结果具有更高的精度.     

Relationship between atmospheric pollution processes and synoptic pressure patterns in northern China

The air pollution index (API) sequences in 10 cities in northern China and the synoptic pressure patterns during autumn and winter from 2002 to 2006 were analyzed with diagnostic and statistical methods. The results showed that the air qualities in northern China had a prominent correlation with the pressure systems. It revealed that (a) the increasing phase of API was associated with high pressure and the successive low pressure, (b) the preceding part of front (i.e. the retral part of low pressure) was associated with the maximum of API values during a cycle of air pollution process, (c) the pressure systems with high gradient led to the decrease of API, and (d) the synoptic pressure patterns and their evolvements were the main causes of regional air pollution processes. These relations can be used to analyze the variation characteristics and mechanism of regional atmosphere pollution process, and provide important basis for the qualitative prediction, control, and management of regional air pollution problems.     

基于灰色马尔可夫的道路交通事故预测

探讨灰色马尔可夫模型在道路交通事故中的具体应用。灰色模型适用于短期、数据量少和波动不大的预测问题,在长期预测时,数据序列拟合较差,预测精度偏低;而马尔可夫链适用于长期、数据序列随机波动大的预测问题。灰色马尔可夫模型结合了灰色GM(1,1)模型和马尔可夫理论的优点,利用灰色模型进行长期预测,再利用马尔可夫链理论进行波动状态预测,最后得到期望值。该模型克服了随机波动性数据对道路交通事故预测精度的影响,提高了灰色预测的准确度。实例结果,证明灰色马尔可夫GM(1,1)模型具有较好的应用价值,为道路交通安全管理提供了有用依据。     

生化恐怖威胁谱系研究进展

评述国内外生化恐怖威胁谱系研究现状;从基于综合因素、基于使用可能、基于杀伤破坏能力和基于袭击主体等方面对生化恐怖威胁源的分类体系和威胁清单进行归纳与梳理;建立了以易得性、毒害性、可用性和防护性为主要评价指标的生化恐怖威胁源评估体系;对进一步开展生化恐怖威胁谱系研究提出了若干建议和思考。研究表明:生化恐怖威胁谱系是一个动态的复杂概念集合,科学地确定评价指标、深入开展生化恐怖威胁谱系研究对于鉴别生化恐怖威胁源及建设反生化恐怖技术能力意义重大。     

化学工业园区重大事故场外应急预案编制技术研究

阐述化学工业园区重大事故场外应急预案编制的技术路线;把编制过程分为调查评估、制度设计、预案编写3阶段,其中调查评估是基础,制度设计是关键;指出危险源辨识、脆弱性分析、应急资源评估、应急组织架构及其职责确定、应急救援运行机制设计等是化学工业园区重大事故场外应急预案编制的工作要点;提出"基本预案+应急功能程序+支持附件"的化学工业园区重大事故场外应急预案结构模式。该编制技术对促进化学工业园区重大事故场外应急预案的科学化、规范化和可操作性具有指导意义。