用马尔可夫模型分析基于通信的列车控制系统(CBTC)的安全性

基于通信的列车控制系统 (CBTC)极有可能成为未来铁路的发展方向 ,只是目前人们对它的安全性还抱有疑虑。笔者给出一种利用马尔可夫模型分析 CBTC安全性的方法。利用系统分解和模型压缩的方法解决状态空间的激增问题。将 CBTC设备分为故障—降级型和故障—安全型两类 ,分别建立子模型 ,分析人员因素及设备故障覆盖率对系统安全性的影响。根据子模型间的独立性 ,将各子模型的事故率相加获得系统的事故率     

APPLICATION OF GREY MODEL TOWARD RUNOFF FORECASTING1

ABSTRACT: A reliable forecasting model is essential in real‐time flood forecasting for reducing natural damage. Efforts to develop a real‐time forecasting model over the past two decades have been numerous. This work applies the Grey model to forecast rainfall and runoff owing to the model's relative ability to predict the future using a small amount of historical data. Such a model significantly differs from the stochastic and deterministic models developed previously. Ten historical storm events from two catchment areas in northern Taiwan are selected to calibrate and verify the model. Results in this study demonstrate that the proposed models can reasonably forecast runoff one to four hours ahead, if the Grey error prediction method is further used to update the output of the model.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

小型污水处理工艺及其应用前景

小型污水处理设施作为投资省见效快的方法对我国今后污水厂建设具有重要指导意义，需要各级主管部门和广大专业人员更多的关注，本文探讨了小型污水处理工艺的类型及其应用，并对我国小型污水处理厂的建设谈了几点看法。     

消防社会化及其促进因素

从理论与实际结合的角度提出了消防社会化概念及其所包含的具体内容，即消防社会化包括消防观念社会化，消防能力分布社会化和消防组织社会化三个方面。进而又提出了促进消防社会化的三个主要因素，即消防宣传教育、社会经济发展以及加大改革力度与管理体制创新。     

ANALYSIS OF FIRM WATER SUPPLY UNDER COMPLEX INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS1

River basin computer simulation studies often do not properly include the complex legal and institutional factors governing water allocation. These factors include formal water rights and informal borrowing agreements among the basin water users. An attempt has been made in this study to show that such factors can be included. We also show that an optimal, integrated approach to reservoir operations in a river basin can do much to alleviate the burden of new demands placed on available water resources. The procurement of a firm water supply for a proposed coal fired power plant is analyzed as a case study. An efficient river basin simulation model is used to determine the viability of a scheme for providing an annual firm water supply to the plant, with consideration of the existing water storage and demands within the basin. Given the hydrologic sequence considered, the model results show that the proposed strategy is viable in that the required firm water supply can be realized without causing harm to decreed water users in the basin. However, integrated diversion and reservoir operations are required to assure a desirable uniform rate of delivery of reusable effluent to the power plant.     

工业废水达标排放管理模式探讨

本文阐述了工业废水达标排放的重要意义,分析了工业废水达标排放的可能性,并提出改革污水处理运作模式的几点建议,对实现“一控双达标”月标具有一定的指导意义。     

S-316回收装置使用方法探讨

阐述了S－316回收装置具体使用操作步骤及注意事项。通过回收试验可知，一般情况下S－316回收率在90％以上，S－316待回收废液体积越大，回收率越高。     

环境监测科研管理相关问题探讨

环境监测科研是环境监测的一项基础性工作，是环境监测事业发展的重要保障。加强环境监测科研工作，需要不断探索适合于时代发展和环境监测以及环境管理工作实际情况的环境监测科研管理模式。对环境监测科研管理的内涵和特点进行了分析；对环境监测科研管理部门的定位、环境监测科研管理的科研计划管理、环境监测科研管理中的科研队伍建设等进行了探讨。     

青藏铁路临界翻车风速研究

分析了青藏铁路沿线不同季节大风平均风速、最大风速和超过8级风天数。由于空气密度随海拔上升而减小,大风对铁路运输安全的影响与低海拔地区差异较大。笔者利用车辆动力学原理建立了列车的临界翻车风速模型,研究了高寒铁路不同海拔地区和冻土地区的临界翻车风速。研究结果表明:青藏高寒铁路临界翻车风速随海拔升高而增大,而随冻土路基病害出现而降低的规律。参考英、日等国大风标准,结合青藏高原的特点,根据危险翻车风速和临界翻车风速,首次提出青藏高原铁路海拔4000m地区安全行车标准。