事故致因理论对自主系统开发与安全运行的启示

在现代工业中,自主智能系统处在创新与探索阶段。由于先验知识的缺乏,其自身所带来的风险问题,越发得到学术界与工业界的关注。本文对于如何应用国际主流的事故致因理论以提高自主系统开发与运营的安全性进行了探讨。指出,现有的事故致因理论可用来从不同角度识别已知风险源,提高对未知风险源的警惕性,并通过描述事故场景,来辅助设计技术安全屏障与运行策略提高自主系统的安全性。为更好的理解自主系统如何会做出错误或不恰当决策,需对现有事故致因理论未涉及到的脑科学与认知心理学进一步的探讨与研究。     

基于HFACS的中国特别重大煤矿事故研究

特别重大煤矿事故一直被认为是中国最严重的社会问题之一。本论文的研究目标有两个。首先,分析中国特别重大煤矿事故的致因因素;其次,定量考察事故致因因素间的相互作用关系。基于HFACS模型,在层级层面上,94起特别重大煤矿事故的实证表明:"不安全行为"的发生频率最高;在类别层面上,"监管不力"的发生频率最高;在指标层面上,"对违法行为失察或制止不力"的发生频率最高。借助OR技术,计算得出上一层级对下一层级指标的影响关系,并得到了一系列致因因素间的影响路径,这为遏制和预防特别重大煤矿事故提供了"路线图"。     

Knowledge,attitudes and practices of occupational risks in Colombian taxi drivers

Objective. The objective of this study was to learn about the health and safety strategies in a sample of taxi drivers in Bucaramanga, Colombia. Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 138 taxi drivers. A survey was used to identify the socio-demographic and working characteristics, knowledge, attitudes and practices according to their occupational risk. Results. Eighty-five percent of the workers labored 9–15?h/day. Of those who suffered accidents, 27% were not affiliated to an occupational risk administrator (p = 0.028). Of the workers who had a work-related accident, 58% considered that the use of a cell phone while driving would not always reduce their attention, 50% always used their seat belt and 7% took active breaks and wore their seat belt (p = 0.01). Conclusions. Within this group of taxi drivers, having or believing to possess knowledge regarding an occupational risk did not ensure that they had a safe attitude or safe working practices.     

The analysis of influence of individual and environmental factors on 2-wheeled users’ injuries

Objective: Powered 2-wheeled motor vehicles (PTWs) are one of the most vulnerable categories of road users. Bearing that fact in mind, we have researched the effects of individual and environmental factors on the severity and type of injuries of PTW users. The aim was to recognize the circumstances that cause these accidents and take some preventive actions that would improve the level of road safety for PTWs.

Methods: In the period from 2001 to 2010, an analysis of 139 road accidents involving PTWs was made by the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering in Belgrade. The effects of both individual (age, gender, etc.) and environmental factors (place of an accident, time of day, etc.) on the cause of accidents and severity and type of injuries of PTWs are reported in this article. Analyses of these effects were conducted using logistic regression, chi-square tests, and Pearson's correlation.

Results: Factors such as categories of road users, pavement conditions, place of accident, age, and time of day have a statistically significant effect on PTW injuries, whereas other factors (gender, road type; that is, straight or curvy) do not. The article also defines the interdependence of the occurrence of particular injuries at certain speeds. The results show that if PTW users died of a head injury, these were usually concurrent with chest injuries, injuries to internal organs, and limb injuries.

Conclusions: It has been shown that there is a high degree of influence of individual factors on the occurrence of accidents involving 2-wheelers (PTWs/bicycles) but with no statistically significant relation. Establishing the existence of such conditionalities enables identifying and defining factors that have an impact on the occurrence of traffic accidents involving bicyclists or PTWs. Such a link between individual factors and the occurrence of accidents makes it possible for system managers to take appropriate actions aimed at certain categories of 2-wheelers in order to reduce casualties in a particular area. The analysis showed that most of the road factors do not have a statistically significant effect on either category of 2-wheeler. Namely, the logistic regression analysis showed that there is a statistically significant effect of the place of accident on the occurrence of accidents involving bicyclists.     

2016年5-6月国内生产安全事故统计分析

统计了2016年5-6月国内发生的各种生产安全事故99起,其中包括交通事故、矿业事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄漏与中毒和其他事故.统计表明,在99起事故中,交通事故占55.56％,矿业事故占5.05％,爆炸事故占5.05％,火灾占6.06％,毒物泄漏与中毒占5.05％,其他事故占23.23％.99起事故共死亡468人.死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故52.56％,矿业事故4.49％,爆炸事故4.06％,火灾5.34％,毒物泄漏与中毒3.21％,其他事故30.34％.2016年5--6月生产安全事故发生较多的6个省分别为安徽(9起)、河南(7起)、广东(7起)、云南(6起)、山西(6起)和山东(6起);死亡人数较多的6个省分别为湖南(44人)、浙江(43人)、河南(42人)、辽宁(36人)、安徽(27人)和广东(27人).     

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel

Objective: With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011–2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Methods: An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Results: Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50–79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient.

Conclusions: This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.     

行为科学关于安全控制的研究述评与未来研究展望

从行为科学的视角,探讨人的因素在事故发生过程中的作用,取得了许多重要的进展。笔者从个体因素、群体因素、组织因素以及跨水平的多因素交互作用等4个方面总结了行为科学关于安全控制的相关研究,分析了各种因素对安全绩效的影响。在此基础上,提出一个包含个体、群体和组织因素在内的整合性事故发生路径模型,指出行为科学关于安全控制的未来研究方向,尤其是需要深入揭示一些高阶变量,如领导、组织学习等对安全生产的影响机制,以及采用跨层次的方法来探讨组织因素、群体因素和个体因素在安全生产过程中的交互作用。     

煤矿安全状况随社会经济发展演化规律研究

利用安全效用原理系统地阐述煤矿安全生产投入产出理论,并借助安全经济学知识建立一个国家或地区的煤矿安全状况演化规律的理论模型。从理论上阐明煤矿安全状况演化的本质规律,并运用发达国家的安全生产发展历程的统计数据对该模型进行实证分析,同时通过该模型系统地反映我国现阶段安全生产与经济发展的关系。笔者认为:中央直属煤矿和地方重点煤矿基本上服从演化规律,但仍需要加大安全投入力度,乡镇煤矿近几年有偏离规律曲线的趋势;建议社会经济迅速发展阶段提高安全意识,加大安全投入,积极采取有效措施,把煤矿事故控制在可接受范围之内。     

Human and organizational factors in Chinese hazardous chemical accidents: a case study of the ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion using the HFACS-HC

Human and organizational factors have been proven to be the prime causes of Chinese hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs). A modified version of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), namely the HFACS-Hazardous Chemicals (HC), was developed to identify the human factors involved in Chinese HCAs. The ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion, the costliest HCA in recent years, was reanalyzed using this framework, and the results were compared with the official accident inquiry report to determine their differences related to the identification of human and organizational factors. The study revealed that interacting human factors from different levels in Ruihai Company led to this catastrophe, and the inquiry report had limitations in the identification of human factors and the guidance for similar accident prevention. This study showed the applicability of the HFACS-HC in HCA analyses as well as the necessity to recommend this approach for future HCA investigations.