切尔诺贝利核电站事故后果模式估算国际比对

介绍我国参加国际原子能机构（IAEA）组织的“切尔诺贝利核电站事故后果模式估算国际比对”中采用的模式及其估算结果与实测值以及与其地各国估算结果的比较。提出土壤表面沉积量与农作物可食部分核素浓度估算模式（属半动态模式,其余模式采用国内通用的静态模式）。比较结果表明,对事故后当年的浓度预测结果与实测值符合较好,对事故后第２年及更长时间的预测结果明显偏高,有待改进。     

Factors associated with prehospital death among traffic accident patients in Osaka City,Japan: A population-based study

Objective: Although it is important to assess the factors associated with traffic accident fatalities to decrease them as a matter of public health, such factors have not been fully identified.

Methods: Using a large-scale data set of ambulance records in Osaka City, Japan, we retrospectively analyzed all traffic accident patients transported to hospitals by emergency medical service personnel from 2013 to 2014. In this study, prehospital death was defined as that occurring at the scene or in the emergency department immediately after hospital arrival. We assessed prehospital factors associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents by logistic regression models.

Results: This study enrolled 28,903 emergency patients involved in traffic accidents, of whom 68 died prehospital. In a multivariate model, elderly patients aged ≥75 years (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 4.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.29–8.23), nighttime (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.65–4.70), and type of injured person compared to bicyclists such as pedestrians (AOR = 9.58; 95% CI, 5.07–17.99), motorcyclists (AOR = 2.75; 95% CI, 1.21–6.24), and car occupants (AOR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.39–6.40) were significantly associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents. In addition, the AOR for automobile versus nonautomobile as the collision opponent was 4.76 (95% CI, 2.30–9.88).

Conclusions: In this population, the factors associated with prehospital death due to traffic accidents were elderly people, nighttime, and pedestrian as the type of patient. The proportion of prehospital deaths due to traffic accidents was also high when the collision component was an automobile.     

公路隧道施工安全风险评估方法优化研究

我国在建公路隧道工程数量增长迅速,施工安全事故时有发生,因此通过风险评估实现施工过程的风险控制就显得非常重要。在此背景下,交通运输部出台了《公路桥梁和隧道工程施工安全风险评估指南（试行）》,而在实际应用过程中,该评估指南无法完全适应多变的工程实际。针对该问题,在对隧道施工安全风险评估的各类评估方法及其适用性进行详细研究的基础上,将该评估指南与国内外其他相关成果和做法进行分析比对,指出该评估指南存在的不足之处,进一步提出相关优化与修订建议;最后,以湖南某高速公路隧道洞口坍塌事故为例,利用提出的施工前专项风险评估方法,综合运用数值模拟计算与事故后果当量估计,计算相应的风险等级,所得到的结果与实际情况更为接近,进一步说明本文所提优化方法的合理性和可操作性。     

Abdominopelvic injuries due to road traffic accidents: Characteristics in a registry of 162,695 victims

Objective: Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are the first cause of abdominopelvic injuries (APIs). The objective of this study was to describe the characteristics and severity of APIs due to traffic accidents in a large French trauma registry and to identify risk factors for API.

Methods: All victims from the French Rhône registry of victims of RTAs were analyzed from 1996 to 2013. This registry contained data that were issued over a 20-year period from 245 medical departments, from prehospital care until re-adaptation, and forensic medicine departments. All APIs, defined as an injury between the diaphragm and the pelvic bone, were extracted and studied.

Results: Among 162,695 victims, 10,165 had an API (6.7%). Accidents frequently involved young men and 2 cars. Mean Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 8.7. Mortality rate was 5.6%. Soft tissue injuries largely predominated (n = 6,388; 54.4% of patients). Overall, 2,322 victims had a pelvic bone injury. Internal abdominal organs were involved in 2,425 patients; the most frequent were the spleen, liver, and kidney. Wearing of the seat belt appeared to be a significant protective factor in API, including serious injuries. A partial analysis over the past 2 years among the most severe patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit indicated that nonoperative management was carried out in two thirds of the wounded. In uni- or multivariate analysis, sex, age, type of user, antagonist, time of occurrence, associated severe lesions, or wearing of the seat belt were statistically associated with the occurrence of API, highlighting a more dangerous user profile.

Conclusions: Abdominopelvic injuries concern a minority of road traffic injuries, but they are responsible for significant mortality. Large solid organs are the most frequently affected. Women drivers wearing a seat belt and driving in town during the day appear to be more protected against API.     

突发性环境污染事故的应急监测探讨

突发性环境污染事故应急预案方案中主要包括污染物的应急监测以及污染事故的处置方案。其中应急监测的工作在于明确造成环境污染的化学物品的种类、浓度、数量、已造成污染范围、已造成的破坏程度、事故未来发展事态等。通过应急监测所整理的信息数据,应急预案组织工作小组可以迅速的对突发性环境污染事故做出科学合理的决策。本文针对突发性环境污染事故应急监测工作方案进行梳理总结,指导组织管理人员如何快速的组织应急监测工作。     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.     

Simulation analysis of fire truck scheduling strategies for fighting oil fires

Emergency response is an important measure to reduce the loss of any major fire and prevent its escalation. There may be many fire trucks participating in the fire-fighting at the same time, and the scheduling of them will affect the fire-fighting efficiency and thus, capacity. This work focuses on the cycle process of fighting fire and refilling water of fire trucks, and analyzes and compares the scheduling strategies of the fire trucks. The simulation tool eM-plant is utilized to model the fire-fighting process. In view of the emergency response in relation to a chemical fire accident and to prevent its escalation, strategies in the analysis consider the allocation of fire trucks according to the distance of hydrants, the distribution of fire trucks according to the number of fire hydrants, etc. The results of this paper show that an even distribution of fire trucks leads to a good performance, but can be further adjusted to find a more optimal strategy. This study provides guidance for fire truck scheduling in case of emergency response.     

PDE accident model from a safety information perspective and its application to Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident

Accident models can provide theoretical frameworks for determining the causes and mechanisms of accidents, and thus are theoretical bases for accident analysis and prevention. The role of safety information in accident causation is profound. Thus, safety information is an important and essential perspective for developing accident models. This study presents a new accident model developed from a safety information perspective, called the Prediction—Decision—Execution (PDE) accident model. Because the PDE accident model is an emerging accident model that was proposed in 2018, its analysis logic and viability remain to be discussed. Thus, the main contributions of this study include two aspects: (i) detailed explanation of the analysis logic of the PDE accident model, and (ii) case-study examination of the Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident, a serious accident that occurred in China in 2018, to demonstrate the viability of the PDE accident model. Results show that this is a safety-information-driven accident model that can provide a new and effective methodology for accident analysis and prevention, and safety management.     

我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*

为探讨我国生产安全事故的宏观影响因素,采用自回归分布滞后（Auto regressive Distributed Lag,ARDL）模型,考察1953—2019年间我国经济增长、产业结构、就业结构以及城镇人口占比等宏观因素对我国生产安全事故的影响。结果表明:生产安全事故与上述宏观因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。在长期关系中,第二产业增加值对我国生产安全事故具有正向影响作用,而经济增长、非农业就业人口比重及城镇人口占比的影响显著为负;在短期关系中,经济增长、第三产业增加值、城镇人口占比的上升增加了生产安全事故风险。上述因素具有不同的分布滞后效应,其相互作用叠加形成生产安全事故系统性风险。研究结果可为推进我国安全发展提供理论思路和参考。     

海洋核动力平台核事故应急监测策略研究综

综述了国外核事故应急监测策略研究进展,以及我国在核应急监测法规标准、应急监测方法、应急辐射环境监测技术等方面的研究现状,从海洋核动力平台的法规标准、应急监测方案、应急辐射监测项目和应急监测方法4个方面进行了探讨,并提出了制定核应急监测政策及标准规范、建立应急监测预案库、加快研发应急采样与监测方法、建立海洋放射性监测体系等建议。