地铁火灾二次事故BP神经网络安全评价方法研究

基于能量转移理论、多米诺效应理论等相关理论对地铁火灾二次事故概念进行界定,并分析地铁火灾二次事故的演化机理,确定地铁火灾条件下易发的二次事故类型;建立了地铁火灾二次事故安全评价指标体系,通过BP神经网络的安全评价方法对地铁火灾二次事故进行量化分析。     

Causation of Severe and Fatal Accidents in the Manufacturing Sector

The main purpose of this paper is to identify the most frequent causes of accidents in the manufacturing sector in Andalusia, Spain, to help safety practitioners in the task of prioritizing preventive actions. Official accident investigation reports are analyzed. A causation pattern is identified with the proportion of causes of each of the different possible groups of causes. We found evidence of a differential causation between slight and non-slight accidents. We have also found significant differences in accident causation depending on the mechanism of the accident. These results can be used to prioritize preventive actions to combat the most likely causes of each accident mechanism. We have also done research on the associations of certain latent causes with specific active (immediate) causes. These relationships show how organizational and safety management can contribute to the prevention of active failures.     

Occupational injuries and sick leaves in household moving works

Background. This study is concerned with household moving works and the characteristics of occupational injuries and sick leaves in each step of the moving process. Methods. Accident data for 392 occupational accidents were categorized by the moving processes in which the accidents occurred, and possible incidents and sick leaves were assessed for each moving process and hazard factor. Results. Accidents occurring during specific moving processes showed different characteristics depending on the type of accident and agency of accidents. The most critical form in the level of risk management was falls from a height in the ‘lifting by ladder truck’ process. Incidents ranked as a ‘High’ level of risk management were in the forms of slips, being struck by objects and musculoskeletal disorders in the ‘manual materials handling’ process. Also, falls in ‘loading/unloading’, being struck by objects during ‘lifting by ladder truck’ and driving accidents in the process of ‘transport’ were ranked ‘High’. Conclusion. The findings of this study can be used to develop more effective accident prevention policy reflecting different circumstances and conditions to reduce occupational accidents in household moving works.     

Continuous Safety Sampling Methodology

This research introduces a proactive methodology for accident prevention, called Continuous Safety Sampling Methodology, by utilizing the principles of work sampling and control charting. Sampling is performed to observe the occurrence of conditions that may become hazardous in a given system. These conditions, known as dendritics, may become hazards and could result in an accident or occupational disease. Continuous Safety Sampling Methodology performs a random sampling for the occurrence of these dendritics. The collected data are then used to generate a control chart. Based on the pattern of the control chart, a system “under control” is not disturbed whereas a system “out of control” is investigated for potential conditions becoming hazardous. Appropriate steps are then taken to eliminate or control these conditions to maintain a desired safe system.     

基于FLAC3D的盾构隧道施工过程建模影响因素分析

基于FLAC3D对盾构隧道施工过程模拟,研究建模影响因素及其影响程度。首先,综合隧道开挖过程中盾构机前体与岩土层间相互作用的影响因素来模拟隧道开挖过程,确定地表沉降和隧道垂直（Z）方向应力;然后,分别模拟去除其中一种因素后的隧道开挖过程,并求出相应的地表沉降和隧道垂向应力;最后,基于傅里叶变换对各种情况下的地表沉降量和应力应变状况进行比较分析,找出各因素对建模的影响程度,从而为利用FLAC3D进行盾构隧道施工模拟时的影响因子的选择提供参考。研究结果表明：一方面,建模过程中的各种因素对地表沉降的影响大于对隧道Z向压力影响;另一方面,盾构机推进给作业面土体压力、盾尾灌浆延迟于管片拼装造成的暂时对土体支护力不足、盾构机刀盘转动给作业面土体的扭力等因素对模型解算造成的影响最大。     

考虑动态施工超长管棚预支护力学特性及参数影响分析*

为研究复杂地层超长管棚随动态施工的力学特性和管棚合理化参数,依托某下穿高速公路浅埋暗挖隧道工程,采用数值法进行三维动态建模分析。研究结果表明:管棚挠度曲线呈鱼腹形,拱顶部和拱腰管棚最终稳定在10.7,2.9 mm;管棚各测点轴力经历由受拉到受压的变化过程,通过各测点后受压区轴力逐渐减小,拱顶部动态响应更明显;管棚弯矩集中于掌子面前后方区域,随开挖面推进,弯矩作用范围逐渐向前扩张,最大弯矩发生在洞口套拱处;通过参数影响分析,当采用短进尺开挖时,管棚直径取129~159 mm、间距为0.4~0.5 m、注浆区厚度为0.4~0.5 m时可确保上方高速公路安全。研究结果可为类似工程施工和设计提供参考。     

基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则研究*

为快速、准确识别山区高速公路隧道不同区段风险因素组合,基于交通事故调研数据,分析其时空变化规律;从人-车-路-环境角度系统筛选风险影响因素,采用随机森林理论构建风险等级预测模型;以决策树与规则相互关系为基础,结合自变量重要评分法,提出基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则。研究结果表明:判别法则集预测精度较好且运行时间短,能够明确高速公路不同隧道区段事故成因,为预防隧道严重交通事故发生提供参考。     

New findings regarding the significance of pavement skid resistance for road safety on Swiss freeways

INTRODUCTION: The significance of the influence of poor pavement skid resistance values on accident frequency in wet pavement conditions has been the object of many studies over several years. The various investigations have produced very diverse findings. Only seldom, however, has detailed consideration been given to the central question of whether pavement skid resistance is a decisive parameter in the occurrence of local accident "black spots." Until now, the focus has been more on describing a relationship between pavement skid resistance and accident frequency. METHOD AND RESULTS: In the course of the network-wide survey of the states of pavements and of accident occurrence on Switzerland's freeways from 1999 to 2003, it emerged that a relationship with inadequate pavement skid resistance was provable for only a small proportion of accident black spots. These findings were used to frame a guideline for authorities and highway operators about how to treat skid resistance when assessing pavements and accident occurrence on freeways.     

传统中医学理论与企业安全生产风险管理

笔者将传统中医学理论与企业安全生产风险管理相结合,在事故致因、事故预防、安全管理等方面,借鉴中医的预防思想、整体观念、五行学说、辨证施治等理论方法,分析研究指出:企业发生安全事故如同人体得病,正气不足是发病的内在根据,邪气入侵是发病的重要条件。因此,发生事故的根本原因在于企业本身;要从研究企业自身的影响安全生产诸要素之间的相互滋生和相互制约的关系入手,加强事故预防工作,坚持整体性的原则,辨证分析事故原因,加大企业生产安全的精神和物质保障,才能全面提高企业的生产安全风险管理水平。     

2006年1-2月国内安全事故统计分析

统计了2006年1-2月国内发生的各种安全事故413起,包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故.统计表明,在这些事故中,交通事故最多,占49.15%,平均每天3.4起事故,其次是矿业事故(39.47%)、爆炸事故(3.87%)、其他事故(3.63%)、毒物泄露和中毒(1.94%)、火灾(1.94%).413起事故共死亡1 302人,伤1 367人,死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故61.52%、矿业事故22.66%、爆炸事故6.84%、泄露中毒4.30%、其他事故3.30%、火灾1.38%;受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故73.81%、矿业事故10.83%、爆炸事故9.44%、其他事故4.39%、火灾0.88%、泄露中毒0.66%.