Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

驾驶员风险认知能力对交通安全的影响

为辨别不同驾驶员风险认知能力对驾驶安全的影响。通过设置13种存在潜在风险的交通情景,引入惩罚用时机制,利用驾驶模拟器,对熟练驾驶员和非熟练驾驶员在风险认知培训前后的风险认知能力进行比较,找出不同驾驶员对风险认知的差异。试验结果显示,熟练驾驶员的风险认知能力比非熟练驾驶员要高,两者在引起交通风险的因素上是不同的,培训后的风险认知能力较之前有很大提高。培训能够拓宽驾驶员对潜在风险的认知程度,更好地将驾驶员的操作技能、知识体系和外在行为衔接在一起,从而减少交通事故的发生。     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.     

A review of public acceptance of nature-based solutions: The ‘why’, ‘when’, and ‘how’ of success for disaster risk reduction measures

Nature-based solutions (NbS) are increasingly recognized as sustainable approaches to address societal challenges. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) has benefited by moving away from purely ‘grey’ infrastructure measures towards NbS. However, this shift also furthers an increasing trend of reliance on public acceptance to plan, implement and manage DRR measures. In this review, we examine how unique NbS characteristics relate to public acceptance through a comparison with grey measures, and we identify influential acceptance factors related to individuals, society, and DRR measures. Based on the review, we introduce the PA-NbS model that highlights the role of risk perception, trust, competing societal interests, and ecosystem services. Efforts to increase acceptance should focus on providing and promoting awareness of benefits combined with effective communication and collaboration. Further research is required to understand interconnections among identified factors and how they can be leveraged for the success and further uptake of NbS.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01502-4.     

北京市地下水中典型抗生素分布特征与潜在风险

应用气相色谱与质谱联用仪分析了北京市地下水内磺胺类(SAs)、氟喹诺酮类(FQs)、四环素类(TCs)、β-内酰胺类和大环内酯类等5大类抗生素.结果表明,北京地下水抗生素以SAs、FQs和TCs等3类为主,检出率分别为78.9%、100%和47.3%,其中甲氧苄氨嘧啶(TMP)、环丙沙星(CIP)和诺氟沙星(NOR)检出率均在70%以上.污灌区地下水样点抗生素浓度显著高于水源地和南水回灌区样点,磺胺二甲嘧啶(SDD)和磺胺嘧啶(SDZ)在污灌区检出峰值达到236 ng·L-1和96.8ng·L-1.生态风险评价结果表明,研究区地下水抗生素污染风险较小,但在污灌区显示中等或高等风险等级.CIP应作为研究区地下水抗生素监测中的重点监测对象.     

不同国家基于健康风险的土壤环境基准比较研究与启示

20世纪90年代以来,许多发达国家颁布了基于健康风险的土壤环境标准及基准背景技术文件,为发展中国家启动标准制订和开展基准研究提供了重要的方法学参考.然而,由于各国在环境立法框架、基准推导过程、环境气候特征、土壤类型、人群生活方式与习惯等方面的不同,导致其基准名称、基准功能、保护受体以及基准取值等存在较大的差异.本文在综述基于健康风险的土壤环境基准科学内涵与基本特征的基础上,对不同国家场地土壤环境基准的名称、功能及基准值的差异进行了比较研究,从土地利用类型划分、暴露情景和暴露途径设定、致癌物可接受风险水平选择以及人体暴露参数确定等4个方面,对不同国家制定场地土壤环境基准的关键技术和影响因素进行了总结分析,探讨了借鉴国外经验考虑区域差异制定我国土壤环境基准的对策与方略,并指出了当前我国制定场地土壤环境基准和标准面临的困难和挑战.     

J市饮用水氯消毒副产物分析及其健康风险评价

J市位于太湖下游,其水源水质受上游和自身工农业发展的影响,有机物和氨氮浓度较高,氯消毒副产物及其引发的健康风险广泛受到关注.2012年5、8、10月以及2013年1月采样,使用气相色谱法分析了J市饮用水中4种三卤甲烷和5种卤乙酸的含量,发现自来水中三卤甲烷浓度占三卤甲烷与卤乙酸总和的88.1%以上,5月、8月和次年1月浓度较高(分别为39.34、50.37和28.02μg.L-1),10月浓度(19.19μg.L-1)较低,远高于卤乙酸的浓度(2.58～4.02μg.L-1).自来水煮沸3min后,三卤甲烷可去除92.3%以上,但卤乙酸会大幅度增加.基于EPA推荐的健康风险评价模型对经口摄取途径时氯消毒副产物的致癌和非致癌风险进行计算,发现化学致癌物质的健康风险为3.1×10-6～7.3×10-6,高于可接受风险水平1×10-6;煮沸后致癌物质的健康风险大幅度降低至7.9×10-7,低于可接受风险水平.煮沸后非致癌氯消毒副产物的健康风险由2.1×10-11显著升高至3.4×10-9,未超过10-5的风险管理参考值.     

新乡市地表水体HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险评价

为了解新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险,采集新乡市18个地表水样并测定其中HCHs和DDTs的含量,采用概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法评价了HCHs和DDTs的生态风险.结果表明,新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的质量浓度范围分别为1.28~49.2 ng·L-1和0.42~12.3 ng·L-1,与世界各地的地表水中HCHs和DDTs残留质量浓度相比属于中等污染水平.异构体比值表明HCHs污染的主要来源是林丹的使用,而DDTs的残留来源于工业品DDTs的使用.生态风险评价基于DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT的暴露浓度以及相应的毒性数据,概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法均表明了这3种有机氯农药中DDD的风险最大,其次是γ-HCHs,p,p'-DDT的生态风险最小;安全阈值法进一步表明DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT超过影响10%水生生物的概率分别为10.2%、5.94%和0.01%.     

广西都安县耕地土壤重金属污染风险评价

为全面了解广西都安瑶族自治县耕地土壤重金属污染特征和生态风险状况,通过实地调查采样及土壤重金属含量分析,利用单因子指数、内梅罗综合指数、Hakanson潜在生态危害指数对都安县耕地土壤中Cd、As、Ni、Zn、Cr、Sb、Cu、Pb这8种重金属进行污染和生态风险评价.结果表明,都安县耕地土壤重金属总体污染严重,74.6%的耕地土壤点位超标,Cd、As、Ni、Zn、Cr、Sb、Cu、Pb的超标率依次为70.6%、42.9%、34.9%、19.8%、19.6%、2.94%、1.59%、0.79%,其中Cd和As超标率远远超过全国和广西水平,是都安县主要的污染元素.都安县耕地土壤总体呈现"中度"生态风险,其中Cd对生态风险贡献率达到88%;九渡乡东南部和保安乡与东庙乡结合部存在高生态风险.都安县耕地土壤重金属污染来自两个主要污染源,其中刁江流域两岸受污灌耕地土壤中As、Sb污染可能主要来源于刁江上游的矿业活动.     

DOM对被动采样技术的影响与应用

主要研究了不同浓度的天然溶解性有机物(DOM)对单片膜被动采样技术的影响.结果表明,DOM的存在会影响膜吸附有机污染物的能力:当lg KOW为3~5时,DOM对膜吸附有机物的影响较小;当lg KOW5.5时,DOM会显著增强膜的吸附能力.同时,通过低密度聚乙烯膜(LDPE)被动采样技术对太子河流域3个表层沉积物的孔隙水进行多环芳烃类(PAHs)和邻苯二甲酸酯类(PAEs)监测.结果表明,所选取的几种目标污染物在各监测点均有不同程度的检出.最后,利用商值法对太子河流域的PAHs和PAEs进行生态风险评价.结果表明,荧蒽超过水生生态基准值,其生态风险较大.