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Peggy A. Johnson Thomas M. Heil 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1996,32(6):1283-1291
ABSTRACT: Bankfull depth and discharge are basic input parameters to stream planform, stream restoration, and highway crossing designs, as well as to the development of hydraulic geometry relationships and the classification of streams. Unfortunately, there are a wide variety of definitions for bankfull that provide a range of values, and the actual selection of bankfull is subjective. In this paper, the relative uncertainty in determining the bankfull depth and discharge is quantified, first by examining the variability in the estimates of bankfull and second by using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth. Fuzzy numbers are used to incorporate uncertainty due to vagueness in the definition of bankfull and subjectivity in the selection of bankfull. Examples are provided that demonstrate the use of a fuzzy bankfull depth in sediment trans. port and in stream classification. Using fuzzy numbers to describe bankfull depth rather than a deterministic value allows the engineer to base designs and decisions on a range of possible values and associated degrees of belief that the bankfull depths take on each value in that range. 相似文献
63.
台风湍流积分尺度与脉动风速谱——基于实测数据的分析 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
基于4个台风过程中的长时间序列风速、风方向观测数据,分析研究了近地台风的湍流积分尺度和脉动风速谱等脉动特性。介绍了湍流积分尺度的几种常见的计算方法,基于实测台风数据,分析研究了台风过程中湍流积分尺度的变化以及不同计算方法的稳定性。根据实测数据计算了纵向脉动风速谱,并与Von-Karman谱、Davenport谱、Simiu谱和Harris谱等经验谱进行了比较,给出了最适合描述台风纵向脉动风速谱的经验谱。还计算了横向脉动风速功率谱,并与基于各向同性湍流理论推导出的水平横向脉动风速谱进行了对比。 相似文献
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基于灰色系统理论的煤与瓦斯突出预测 总被引:5,自引:5,他引:5
为了对煤与瓦斯突出事故进行有效的预防与控制 ,笔者应用灰色系统理论中的灰色聚类评估方法 ,对矿井的煤与瓦斯突出进行了预测。经实例证明 ,与常用的预测方法相比 ,灰色聚类预测方法具有能动态预测、预测准确等优点。该方法将影响突出的多个因素综合系统的来考虑 ,跳出了常规预测方法只依靠单一指标进行预测的圈子 ,提高了预测的准确性。研究结果表明 ,该方法能准确地反映矿井煤与瓦斯突出规律 ,是一种新的煤与瓦斯突出预测的方法 相似文献
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Karsten Klint Jensen 《Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics》2004,17(4-5):405-423
The 2000 BSE Inquiry report points out that the most serious failure of the UK Government was one of risk communication. This paper argues that the government's failure to communicate the risks BSE posed to humans to a large degree can be traced back to a lack of transparency in the first risk assessment by the Southwood Working Party. This lack of transparency ensured that the working party's risk characterization and recommendations were ambiguous and thus hard to interpret. It also meant that uncertainties were not addressed in a satisfactory way. In the recommendations, the attitude to uncertainty was implicit rather than explicit.The risk communication based on the report amplified these flaws. Most importantly, it did not address the uncertainty at all. Apparently, the reason for this was fear of overreaction by the public. However, the result was counter-productive, because the risk communication did not then appear trustworthy. Later risk assessments and risk communication omitted to correct these flaws. Indeed, the fact that, following receipt of new information, advisory experts and policy makers had changed their views of the risk to humans was never clearly communicated to the public. There seemed to be little faith in the public's ability to reach a balanced judgment regarding the uncertainties.In the concluding section of the paper, this analysis is compared with the food standards agency's (FSA's) approach to BSE. The intervention of this agency was seen as one of the more important efforts to restore consumer confidence in British beef. And the agency certainly appears to be committed to openness and to addressing scientific uncertainty. However, using the risk of BSE in sheep as a case study, the paper shows that transparency – i.e., the clear presentation of factual and normative claims and assumptions underlying advice, and openness about the reasoning based on these claims and assumptions – is less than fully achieved in the FSA's work. 相似文献
69.
Lyapounov理论在矿井通风系统稳定性分析中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
当矿井通风系统的特征参数发生变化时,矿井通风系统的风流状态也会发生变化,这些变化是否会影响矿井通风系统的稳定工作,对这个问题进行研究有利于确保安全生产.本文根据Lyapounov稳定性理论对矿井通风系统的稳定性进行分析,得到矿井通风系统在其正常的工作区段,系统特征参数发生一定的变化时,其状态是稳定的;当变化超过一定的界限后,系统变得不稳定,不利于系统正常功能的实现. 相似文献
70.
针对搅拌桩施工会引起周围土体的位移及产生很高的超静孔隙水压力的工程现象,首先分析了搅拌桩施工中固化剂的注入体积与膨胀压力、成桩直径的关系。结果表明,5%~10%的注入浆液的体积可以对周围土体产生1.8~3.0倍不排水抗剪强度的膨胀压力,成桩直径比搅拌叶片的名义直径大5%~10%。然后量测室内模型桩、现场搅拌桩的成桩直径,分析了注入浆液的体积与成桩直径的关系。结果表明,对于深度不太大的水泥土搅拌桩,有约45%的注入体积会通过上浮隆起的土体损失掉;大约5%的注入体积通过劈裂裂缝渗入到周围土体中;大约50%的注入体积会转化为成桩直径,使桩体膨胀5%~10%,即实测桩径比搅拌叶片的名义直径大5%~10%。 相似文献