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171.
土地利用规划中不确定性的识别和处理研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
首先概述不确定性概念及其产生、相关理论和研究进展,深刻地揭示由于在我国土地和用规划中长期以来忽视开展不确定性研究,导致规划指标偏离现实需求,频繁修改规划方案和违法用地现象不断发生,在此基础上,引入不确定性规划理念,重新审视不确定性在土地利用规划中的地位和作用,全面系统地阐述土地利用规划中不确定性的类型及其特性,具体表现及其识别和处理方法.研究结果表明,由于人们的知识所限,客观世界中普遍存在不确定性.不确定性孕育着规划的产生,规划是对未来不确定性的缓解和抵消.土地利用规划中长期以来忽视业已存在的不确定性,直接影响土地利用规划的科学性和可操作性.土地利用规划中最基本的不确定性是预测未来和为了适应未来而对现在进行调整的失误.对未来的无知所引发的不确定性,只能求助于不确定性科学,增强对未来的预测能力和控制能力,使不确定性的负面影响最小化. 相似文献
172.
生态系统服务价值的变化决定着区域的可持续发展,其评估已成为生态学研究的热点之一,其研究结果对维持地区生态平衡、合理利用土地资源、建立可持续的土地利用模式等具有重要意义。本文在综合已有研究的基础上,通过估算万源市太平镇不同海拔高度土地生态服务价值量,探讨经济发展与生态服务价值变化的关系。结果表明,城市规划区的自然生态系统服务功能的价值是不可忽视的,自然生态系统无论是从物质上还是经济上,都为万源市太平镇的国民经济和社会可持续发展提供者重要支撑。从生态系统服务功能角度,海拔750 m高程是太平镇城市用地扩张的控制线。 相似文献
173.
Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration. 相似文献
174.
Intensification of food production in tropical landscapes in the absence of land‐use planning can pose a major threat to biological diversity. Decisions on whether to spatially integrate or segregate lands for production and conservation depend in part on the functional relations between biological diversity and agricultural productivity. We measured diversity, density, and species composition of birds along a gradient of production intensification on an agricultural frontier of the Argentine Chaco, where dry tropical forests are cleared for cattle production. Bird species diversity in intact forests was higher than in any type of cattle‐production system. Bird species richness decreased nonlinearly as cattle yield increased. Intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems, those in which forest understory is selectively cleared to grow pastures of non‐native plants beneath the tree canopy, produced 80% of the mean cattle yield obtained in pastures on cleared areas and were occupied by 70–90% of the number of bird species present in the nearest forest fragments. Densities of >50% of bird species were significantly lower in open pastures than in silvopastoral systems. Therefore, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems may have the greatest potential to sustain cattle yield and conserve a large percentage of bird species. However, compared with low‐intensity production systems, in which forest structure and extent were intact, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems supported significantly fewer forest‐restricted bird species and fewer frugivorous birds. These data suggest that the integration of production and conservation through intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems combined with the protection of forest fragments may be required to maintain cattle yield, bird diversity, and conservation of forest‐restricted species in this agricultural frontier. Compromisos entre la Producción de Ganado y la Conservación de Aves en una Frontera Agrícola del Gran Chaco de Argentina 相似文献
175.
Land‐use dynamics and climatic gradients have large effects on many terrestrial systems. Exurban development, one of the fastest growing forms of land use in the United States, may affect wildlife through habitat fragmentation and building presence may alter habitat quality. We studied the effects of residential development and temperature gradients on bird species occurrence at 140 study sites in the southern Appalachian Mountains (North Carolina, U.S.A.) that varied with respect to building density and elevation. We used occupancy models to determine 36 bird species’ associations with building density, forest canopy cover, average daily mean temperature, and an interaction between building density and mean temperature. Responses varied with habitat requirement, breeding range, and migration distance. Building density and mean temperature were both included in the top occupancy models for 19 of 36 species and a building density by temperature interaction was included in models for 8 bird species. As exurban development expands in the southern Appalachians, interior forest species and Neotropical migrants are likely to decline, but shrubland or edge species are not likely to benefit. Overall, effects of building density were greater than those of forest canopy cover. Exurban development had a greater effect on birds at high elevations due to a greater abundance of sensitive forest‐interior species and Neotropical migrants. A warming climate may exacerbate these negative effects. Efectos del Desarrollo Exurbano y de la Temperatura sobre Especies de Aves en las Apalaches del Sur 相似文献
176.
Miguel A. Altieri 《国际发展与全球生态学杂志》2013,20(1):50-61
SUMMARY An assessment is made of various grassroots development initiatives in Latin America which show that agroecological technologies can bring significant environmental and economic benefits to small farmers and rural communities in the region. Examined initiatives offer new ways of enhancing the multifunctional attributes of traditional agriculture through greater per unit area productivity and environmental services obtained in complex, integrated agroecological systems that feature many crop varieties, together with animals and trees. If such experiences were to be scaled up, multiplied, extrapolated, and supported in alternative policy scenarios, the gains in food security and environmental conservation would be substantial. The challenge now is to mobilize science, institutions and the right policies to increase the productivity of smallholder farming systems, while preserving the resource base and at the same time empowering local communities. 相似文献
177.
Domestic water conservation in arid climates can result in efficient utilization of existing water supplies. The impacts of
conservation measures such as the installation of water-saving devices, water metering and pricing schemes, water rationing
and public awareness programs, strict plumbing codes, penalties for wasting water, programs designed to reduce leakage from
public water lines and within the home, water-efficient landscaping, economic and ethical incentives are addressed in detail.
Cost savings in arid climates, with particular reference to Saudi Arabia, in relation to some conservation techniques, are
presented. Water conservation technology and tentative demonstration and implementation of water conservation programs are
discussed. 相似文献
178.
John B. Whitcomb 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1990,26(6):921-926
ABSTRACT: A water use model was developed to estimate water savings from installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices in residential housing. The model measures household water use in per capita terms with adjustments for age of occupants, household income, if occupants responsible for direct payment of water bill, and type of water fixtures. Detailed data on 308 single family residences involved with a pilot retrofit program in the Seattle, Washington, area were analyzed. We estimated per capita indoor water use to decline by 6.4 and 2.1 percent from complete installation of low-flow showerheads and toilet displacement devices, respectively. 相似文献
179.
The land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) method has been used extensively in the United States to assess agricultural
land suitability for different localities. Despite widespread use, LESA models rarely have been evaluated in a systematic,
comprehensive manner. This article discusses development of a LESA system for Hawaii, the first statewide application of the
LESA methodology. The empirical model was implemented with a computerized geographic information system (GIS). The system's
efficiency, ability to discriminate among land parcels, and robustness to subjective model parameter values are evaluated
with statistical analyses and map overlays of GIS data. Results show great potential to simplify the original model specification,
primarily through deletion of marginal site assessment factors. System output was generally insensitive to the numeric values
selected for model parameters, with exception of the ratio used to combine the land evaluation (LE) and site assessment (SA)
component scores. Relative supplies of the differing land attributes measured by the two components must be considered in
determining an appropriate LE:SA ratio for a given area. 相似文献
180.
ABSTRACT: Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to assess the relationships between land use patterns and the physical habitat and macroinvertebrate fauna of streams within similar sized watersheds. Eleven second or third order watersheds ranging from highly urbanized to heavily forested were selected along Lake Superior's North Shore. Land use patterns within the watersheds were quantified using readily available digital land use/land cover information, with a minimum mapping resolution of 16 ha. Physical habitat features, describing substrate characteristics and stream morphology, were characterized at sample points within each stream. Principle component and correlation analyses were used to identify relationships between macroinvertebrates and stream physical habitat, and between habitat and land use patterns. Substrate characteristics and presence of coarse woody debris were found to have the strongest correlations with macreinvertebrate assemblage richness and composition. Agricultural and urban land use was correlated with substrate characteristics. Algal abundance, associated with macroinvertebrate compositional differences, was correlated with housing density and non-forest land covers. The use of readily available spatial data, even at this relatively coarse scale, provides a means to detect the primary relationships between land use and stream habitat quality; finer-resolution GIS databases are needed to assess more subtle influences, such as those due to riparian conditions. 相似文献